COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

[dirtdad]

All politics and state vs state / premier vs premier BS aside - Melbourne taking the crown as the 'most locked down' city in the world a few days ago really has me feeling for my southern cousins.

You guys made global news. I have a bunch of overseas colleagues all asking me how things in Australia are going, and if our kids will go back to school this year! (Australia rarely seems to make the news in Europe/US).

Hope things improve soon and you all get to go on some much needed bike-cations to wherever it is you've been dreaming about while being locked up.

 

[moorey]

i didnt say it worked. The questions was "what then?

No, sorry, wasn’t suggesting you were, just a throwaway comment.

 

[ualf]

Vaccination wise in VIC things are beginning to look a little better.

I think that the 7day average for 1st vaccinations peaked about a week ago, 7day average for 2nd seems to be accelerating because of the shortened gap.

I would be surprised if both 26/10 and 5/11 estimated dates for 70% & 80% will not be beaten by several days at the very least.

20,879 Coronavirus Cases and 158 Active in Victoria - COVID LIVE

Live tracking of Coronavirus Cases, Active Cases, Tests, Recoveries, Deaths, ICU and Hospitalisations in Victoria

covidlive.com.au

 

[Squidfayce]

crazy theory. but first, if youre sensitive, scroll on.

maybe, just maybe, letting covid go rampant in Australia is a good way to solve the housing affordability crisis?

think about it.

 

[caad9]

crazy theory. but first, if youre sensitive, scroll on.

maybe, just maybe, letting covid go rampant in Australia is a good way to solve the housing affordability crisis?

think about it.

The old two birds with one spicy cough trick

 

[cokeonspecialtwodollars]

crazy theory. but first, if youre sensitive, scroll on.

maybe, just maybe, letting covid go rampant in Australia is a good way to solve the housing affordability crisis?

think about it.

I don't have any data to support this but I'm guessing that a lot of the market that has been locked out of property are the same ones that have either lost or had a significant downturn in employment and aren't going to be in a position to take on substantial debt any time soon, more likely that the top 10% would pick up anything that would become available and the gap would widen.

 

[moorey]

crazy theory. but first, if youre sensitive, scroll on.

maybe, just maybe, letting covid go rampant in Australia is a good way to solve the housing affordability crisis?

think about it.

My wife working in ICU would like a word please.

 

[ualf]

crazy theory. but first, if youre sensitive, scroll on.

maybe, just maybe, letting covid go rampant in Australia is a good way to solve the housing affordability crisis?

think about it.

It is probably too late for it to have any significant impact on house prices or climate change.

My daughter came home last night after a 10 hour shift in a COVID ward and was telling me that of the patients she was caring for the youngest is in his early 30s and the oldest was 90.

The youngest one had not yet been fully vaccinated because of eligibility, apparently all he needs is Oxygen at this stage.

The oldest is fully vaccinated and the only reason he is in hospital is because he is 90 as a precaution. If he hadn't been tested as a close contact no one would know he had been infected.

Of those in intensive care apparently none are vaccinated and at least one has a life expectancy measured in hours.

in conclusion... maybe, just maybe, those with the authority to make the decision to let it go have decided that anyone who wants to gamble is expendable.

 

[Squidfayce]

I don't have any data to support this but I'm guessing that a lot of the market that has been locked out of property are the same ones that have either lost or had a significant downturn in employment and aren't going to be in a position to take on substantial debt any time soon, more likely that the top 10% would pick up anything that would become available and the gap would widen.

depends on industry, but that is a valid point.

 

[shiny]

Had my first Pfizer today. Voices in my head are much clearer, increase in phone reception was too much for my phone and it caught fire and the service due light on my car went out. Crazy stuff.

On a serious note, feeling for Vic and NSW at the mo. Messaged a mate in Melbs. He is just over it but not much he can do but wait it out. Hope things get better but fear they are going to get worse before they do.

 

[Squidfayce]

in conclusion... maybe, just maybe, those with the authority to make the decision to let it go have decided that anyone who wants to gamble is expendable.

I think it was more a matter of cant keep pushing shit uphill. lockdown fatigue is obvious, people responsible for much of the spread seem to be the ones doing the wrong thing - parties, protests, home visits etc.

the expendable aspect, hmm, dunno. The ethics at the hospital level when it gets swamped will be to treat those most likely to survive, so even an expendable antivaxxer that is more likley to survive is going to get life saving treatment over double vaxed deaths door waiting to die candidate.

props to all the people working on the front lines of this. Not sure I could do that day in and out.

 

[cokeonspecialtwodollars]

I think it was more a matter of cant keep pushing shit uphill. lockdown fatigue is obvious, people responsible for much of the spread seem to be the ones doing the wrong thing - parties, protests, home visits etc.

the expendable aspect, hmm, dunno. The ethics at the hospital level when it gets swamped will be to treat those most likely to survive, so even an expendable antivaxxer that is more likley to survive is going to get life saving treatment over double vaxed deaths door waiting to die candidate.

props to all the people working on the front lines of this. Not sure I could do that day in and out.

Anybody care to confirm if that's how it works in reality, I always thought that triage would put the highest priority on those who most needed the care but once you were in a bed they wouldn't swap you out because you had less chance of surviving i.e. first in gets the bed and then when you arrive maybe a few days later you have to wait for the next available bed to open up even if you are in greater need of treatment?

 

[PINT of Stella. mate!]

My wife working in ICU would like a word please.

At least she has a job

 

[moorey]

At least she has a job

She’s got about 6 these days.

 

[ualf]

Anybody care to confirm if that's how it works in reality, I always thought that triage would put the highest priority on those who most needed the care but once you were in a bed they wouldn't swap you out because you had less chance of surviving i.e. first in gets the bed and then when you arrive maybe a few days later you have to wait for the next available bed to open up even if you are in greater need of treatment?

At times when there is no capacity constraint, those in most urgent need get care first.

When things get to the point that the system is overwhelmed it switches to some version of what squidy describes.

Plenty of health professionals in northern Italy are still trying to reconcile themselves with having to refuse treatment to people just because they were over 60 during their first big wave.

 

[Squidfayce]

Anybody care to confirm if that's how it works in reality, I always thought that triage would put the highest priority on those who most needed the care but once you were in a bed they wouldn't swap you out because you had less chance of surviving i.e. first in gets the bed and then when you arrive maybe a few days later you have to wait for the next available bed to open up even if you are in greater need of treatment?

New ICU plan ranks ‘most likely to survive’

Intensive care doctors in NSW have been issued new guidelines outlining the “ethical challenges” they could face in coming weeks if forced to limit lifesaving ventilators to Covid-19 patients “who are the most likely to survive”.

www.news.com.au

though as ualf says, the the approaches change under different settings.

 

[Asininedrivel]

Hasn’t really worked in the US.

To be fair, it was working superbly until it ran into the bulwark of unvaxxed morons, a cohort it's quite happily now making very sick / killing in large numbers.

Given our proportionally much higher level of vaccinations (extrapolating the current numbers in NSW and Vic) that's a scenario that's less likely to play out here. Still going to give our health system an absolute hammering though.

 

[Asininedrivel]

I don't have any data to support this but I'm guessing that a lot of the market that has been locked out of property are the same ones that have either lost or had a significant downturn in employment and aren't going to be in a position to take on substantial debt any time soon, more likely that the top 10% would pick up anything that would become available and the gap would widen.

Bang on.

 

[cokeonspecialtwodollars]

At times when there is no capacity constraint, those in most urgent need get care first.

When things get to the point that the system is overwhelmed it switches to some version of what squidy describes.

Plenty of health professionals in northern Italy are still trying to reconcile themselves with having to refuse treatment to people just because they were over 60 during their first big wave.

New ICU plan ranks ‘most likely to survive’

Intensive care doctors in NSW have been issued new guidelines outlining the “ethical challenges” they could face in coming weeks if forced to limit lifesaving ventilators to Covid-19 patients “who are the most likely to survive”.

www.news.com.au

though as ualf says, the the approaches change under different settings.

Cheers gents, big respect to anybody working on the front line, that's a horrible decision to be forced to make especially if it hits the fan because of political decisions against the advice of the CHO.

 

[Squidfayce]

Cheers gents, big respect to anybody working on the front line, that's a horrible decision to be forced to make especially if it hits the fan because of political decisions against the advice of the CHO.

it was on the cards regardless of cho decisions. The moddeling that supports the CHO endosed plans still saw best case scenarios of 10's of thousands of cases a day