COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

[HamboCairns]

My mother in Northern Ireland was booked in for a Heart op, a bypass and 2 valves. She was delayed by 3 months until she dropped to the ground in March at home, she spent 5 weeks in hospital and 3 days before her op, a patient across the room got covid... she could see him and was talking to him. His sister brought it in 2 days earlier. Now her op was 2 weeks delayed. She is now home and says she feels better that she was 20yrs ago...
It's rife in NI right now, worse now than was it was before 'freedom day'.
The day we open up is irreversible !!!

Fuck that's terrible.

My cancer surgery was delayed by a couple of months and in that time the growth had broken its enclosure (which they could see once they'd removed it). If it had been delayed by a couple more months then it MIGHT have broken out and entered the bloodstream which would have been a whole bunch of fuck to deal with.

 

[Nambra]

This is a pretty sobering take on the Doherty modeling.

Australian public fed nonsense as country heads to “irreversible” decision.

The “Doherty Report” is being sold as an economic & health model “created by experts” to move Australia from suppression to opening up and…

medium.com

Can't say I read that whole article in detail, but got the general idea. The cynic in me thinks that the 180 day horizon of modelling in the Doherty Report gets us to the next federal election. If Albo does a Bradbury and we get a Labor government, the LNP can pin it on him when opening up inevitably turns to shit as it has elsewhere in the world.

The University of Sydney warns against opening up in NSW too, based on their own modelling of Delta. The peak is still 6 weeks away.

'The worst is yet to come': NSW could hit 6,000 cases a day by October, study finds

New research has found that if restrictions were fully lifted when 80 per cent of adults were vaccinated, half a million people would become infected in the following month.

www.abc.net.au

The National Plan is to simply vaccinate enough people to reduce the body count to a socially defendable level for governments to prioritise the economy and live with Covid in the community. Australians need to decide what our version of 'covid normal' is going to look like. As an island nation with secure borders, why shouldn't we continue to strive for eradication as opposed to Covid being endemic in the community? To me, the latter means that we're all eventually going to have to catch it, which still appears to be a crap-shoot even for those that are fully vaccinated, albeit with better odds. I want Covid as much as I want Ebola or malaria. If we can keep those diseases out, why can't we do the same with Covid, or at least until we're a few more iterations into more effective treatments and there is a better understanding of the long term effects of Covid.

 

[Kerplunk]

They are all good and valid points and I hope you injury has healed @Kerplunk. I'm a bit confused why with the point you made above you're not agreeing with Matt Barrie's opinion that opening up too early would overwhelm the health system? If the health system is already straining and the modelling showing the number of hospitalisations will increase how will that get better? As @SummitFever pointed out and @Tubbsy linked too it's not only COVID patients who will suffer, as you yourself know from experience. Also even though we may not like the particular author valid points were made in the article about the assumptions used which should not be ignored. With our experience do we truly believe the health system will miraculously improve in the next 180 days and it will be able to handle the increase in patients? I'm all for opening up but I want an honest discussion using unfiltered analysis because that is the only way to properly identify our critical infrastructure weaknesses and shore them up before it gets out of hand.

Sorry didn’t mean to convolute the two, i didn’t say disagree with Matt Barrie btw, just caveat emptor..

 

[caad9]

The National Plan is to simply vaccinate enough people to reduce the body count to a socially defendable level for governments to prioritise the economy and live with Covid in the community. Australians need to decide what our version of 'covid normal' is going to look like. As an island nation with secure borders, why shouldn't we continue to strive for eradication as opposed to Covid being endemic in the community? To me, the latter means that we're all eventually going to have to catch it, which still appears to be a crap-shoot even for those that are fully vaccinated, albeit with better odds. I want Covid as much as I want Ebola or malaria. If we can keep those diseases out, why can't we do the same with Covid, or at least until we're a few more iterations into more effective treatments and there is a better understanding of the long term effects of Covid.

This is my view also.
If NSW can find it within themselves to dig a little deeper, I believe we can eradicate this variant.

There will need to be some serious effort put into flights in and out of the country and how we quarantine also, but we are so far away from the rest of the world it has to be beneficial to us all at some point

 

[Kerplunk]

To me, the latter means that we're all eventually going to have to catch it.. snip

This is a reality Australia is going to have face sooner or later imo.. The virus is endemic in all the other non hermit countries. We can keep it out for while, but it will continue to mutate and will get in eventually.
But we have the tools now with brilliant vaccines that will stop people having all the bad stuff covid can cause.
What I think is confusing a lot of people is the 70-80% vaccine threshold modeling doesn’t mean the doors are swung open and it’s let it rip time.. (None of this is rant is aimed at you Nambra btw)

 

[PINT of Stella. mate!]

……

This is my view also.
If NSW can find it within themselves to dig a little deeper, I believe we can eradicate this variant.

There will need to be some serious effort put into flights in and out of the country and how we quarantine also, but we are so far away from the rest of the world it has to be beneficial to us all at some point

We currently can’t get the numbers down in Victoria and it’s treated seriously there. How in the hell is that going to happen in NSW with 15 times the infections when it spreads exponentially and both the people and the authorities are blasé as all fuck about it?

I swear it’s like banging my head against a brick wall. Yes it’s theoretically possible IF everyone -and I mean everyone- did the right thing by staying home and observing strict social distancing , we all dug deep in our pockets to ensure that those in financial peril were looked after and conspiracy theorists decided to stop being mental.

it’s also theoretically possible that Australia could win the next World Cup by fielding a team of extremely well-trained cats.

 

[Litenbror]

it’s also theoretically possible that Australia could win the next World Cup by fielding a team of extremely well-trained cats.

I'd watch that.

Also yes we need to prepare to make it endemic but with that come a plan to manage fall out of the first 6-12 months of that strategy. Currently I'm not getting much confidence from our leaders re the planning and strategy part. This is why the close the boarder brigade is so popular because it also shuts out the morons in charge in NSW and Federally.

 

[downunderdallas]

This is a reality Australia is going to have face sooner or later imo.. The virus is endemic in all the other non hermit countries. We can keep it out for while, but it will continue to mutate and will get in eventually.
But we have the tools now with brilliant vaccines that will stop people having all the bad stuff covid can cause.
What I think is confusing a lot of people is the 70-80% vaccine threshold modeling doesn’t mean the doors are swung open and it’s let it rip time.. (None of this is rant is aimed at you Nambra btw)

Agreed, the next problem appears to be waning vaccine effectiveness. Israel already has like 30+% of their population with a 3rd shot as the number of infections of the vaccinated (6+ months ago) are going through the roof. We are so slow getting shots 1 and 2 in arms I feel like the most vulnerable will be having their vaccine effectiveness waning just when our illustrious leader wants everyone out hugging and kissing each other again.

 

[moorey]

it’s also theoretically possible that Australia could win the next World Cup by fielding a team of extremely well-trained cats.

What sport are we talking here?

 

[PINT of Stella. mate!]

What sport are we talking here?

Football, obviously. The lack of opposable thumbs will preclude them from most other activities

 

[moorey]

Football, obviously. The lack of opposable thumbs will preclude them from most other activities

Which football? Or do you mean soccer?

 

[HamboCairns]

Which football? Or do you mean soccer?

Non-eggball

 

[Jpez]

What sport are we talking here?

The SBS world “Down Country” championships of course.

Football, obviously. The lack of opposable thumbs will preclude them from most other activities

Not true!

 

[moorey]

Non-eggball

They’re all just sportsball to me.

 

[HamboCairns]

They’re all just sportsball to me.

There's only one sportsball for me - the round pigskin kicked by multi-millionaires variety

 

[danncam]

……
We currently can’t get the numbers down in Victoria and it’s treated seriously there.

I am usually a bit on the rule breaking side of things, but not with the pandemic. That said Melbournians are doing fuck all right at the moment. Everyone has their own little reason to bend the rules, booked vax spots don't get turned up to, 5km is more like 20, and masks seem optional at best to half the population.
I am usually also an optimist, but I think we've screwed the pooch and Melbourne is fucked. Protests will keep happening really icing the "embrace covid cake" and we'll end up like NSW before too long.

 

[Spanky_Ham]

The meat sock just applied for the NSW approved workers travel permit..... Oh, what a glorius clusterfvrk this is..... No real application, just log on, select "Authorsied Worker" and that's it... Have to reapply every two weeks.... Yeah, really helps... really helps.

S

note: company produces reagents used to test new borns for problems.... so, yeah, a little essential we guess.

 

[PINT of Stella. mate!]

The National Plan is to simply vaccinate enough people to reduce the body count to a socially defendable level for governments to prioritise the economy and live with Covid in the community. Australians need to decide what our version of 'covid normal' is going to look like. As an island nation with secure borders, why shouldn't we continue to strive for eradication as opposed to Covid being endemic in the community? To me, the latter means that we're all eventually going to have to catch it, which still appears to be a crap-shoot even for those that are fully vaccinated, albeit with better odds. I want Covid as much as I want Ebola or malaria. If we can keep those diseases out, why can't we do the same with Covid, or at least until we're a few more iterations into more effective treatments and there is a better understanding of the long term effects of Covid.

As I detailed earlier, a year and a half of operating at minimal staffing levels coupled with the worldwide supply chain shortages and forced reliance on inexperienced personnel is leading to a very dangerous situation in Major Hazard Facilities across the country. I'd hazard a guess that a similar situation exists in the aviation industry where widespread job losses will have a had a knock-on effect on aircraft maintenance.

Sure we can keep kicking the can along the road but it will probably lead to an Piper Alpha or Texas City style catastrophe.

 

[Kerplunk]

Agreed, the next problem appears to be waning vaccine effectiveness. Israel already has like 30+% of their population with a 3rd shot as the number of infections of the vaccinated (6+ months ago) are going through the roof. We are so slow getting shots 1 and 2 in arms I feel like the most vulnerable will be having their vaccine effectiveness waning just when our illustrious leader wants everyone out hugging and kissing each other again.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430159215151177731

There is more to an immune response than just antibodies.. Last slide in that tweet is good info..
Also here re Israel it’s not all bad;

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1428042753989033996

 

[HamboCairns]

As I detailed earlier, a year and a half of operating at minimal staffing levels coupled with the worldwide supply chain shortages and forced reliance on inexperienced personnel is leading to a very dangerous situation in Major Hazard Facilities across the country. I'd hazard a guess that a similar situation exists in the aviation industry where widespread job losses will have a had a knock-on effect on aircraft maintenance.

Sure we can keep kicking the can along the road but it will probably lead to an Piper Alpha or Texas City style catastrophe.

I've been bang into airplane disaster channels on YouTube; it's either pilot error or ground crew shortcomings.