COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

ozzybmx

taking a shit with my boobs out
Not stoked...
I'll be honest, we are both essential workers and have not been impacted by vid, actually probably thrived off it. Our boys are at that age where they are possibly in the best group/age that gets corona and are asymptomatic (though not a given) we are thankfully in the best position we could be in... by pure luck.
It makes me angry to think that some fuckers can make decisions for the country which will at some stage very soon, result on releasing a virus on our most vulnerable.
If someone told me my child was going to die and I could swap places, it would be a split second decision to swap... I couldn't imagine life without any one of them anyway.
I would not like to be in the shoes of a decision maker in this country when children start dying over a political fuck up.
 

ozzybmx

taking a shit with my boobs out
This is a pretty sobering take on the Doherty modeling.

Oath it is. Australia will be massively overwhelmed AND THATS WITHOUT any cases in the hospitals that are looking after the 2000 ICU patients and the extra nurses needed.

2000 beds in ICU x 5 nurses clean of Covid is 10,000 nurses alone.

Currently (3 days ago) 75% of all ICU beds in NSW are occupied.

How da fuck are you going to open up the state :oops:
 

SummitFever

Eats Squid
But in all seriousness, it's not just the covid that's an issue. If our hospitals get congested it'll be everyone that suffers....
This is now the key point that needs to be hammered home to anyone getting lockdown fatigue. Your mental health issues will pale into insignificance when your overtaxed medical system sees you dying of easily curable things. When the ICU is full and lots of doctors are quarantining with covid lot's of things become fatal. Even if not fatal how about waiting weeks to have your broken bones set etc and what about all of the people who suffer when elective surgery is cancelled.

Also, spare a thought for the health care professionals that have to deal with the bloody mess caused by the rest of us. How'd you like to go to work each day to care for people with a deadly but preventable disease. What would your mental health be like if you had to decide who lived and died?

We can't under any circumstances stuff our health care system.

Basically, Sydney needs to HTFU. Melbourne did 200 days under lockdown but Sydney can't do a third of that without making noises about giving up.
 

LPG

likes thicc birds
This is a pretty sobering take on the Doherty modeling.

I really wish I was stupid enough to not understand that and continue on my ignorant way. To read that and say that 70-80% eligible vaccinated means we can open up is criminal.

Basically, Sydney needs to HTFU. Melbourne did 200 days under lockdown but Sydney can't do a third of that without making noises about giving up.
Agreed. We need strong leadership encouraging people to do the right thing and supporting them to do so.
 

ozzybmx

taking a shit with my boobs out
Also, spare a thought for the health care professionals that have to deal with the bloody mess caused by the rest of us. How'd you like to go to work each day to care for people with a deadly but preventable disease. What would your mental health be like if you had to decide who lived and died?
My mother in Northern Ireland was booked in for a Heart op, a bypass and 2 valves. She was delayed by 3 months until she dropped to the ground in March at home, she spent 5 weeks in hospital and 3 days before her op, a patient across the room got covid... she could see him and was talking to him. His sister brought it in 2 days earlier. Now her op was 2 weeks delayed. She is now home and says she feels better that she was 20yrs ago...
It's rife in NI right now, worse now than was it was before 'freedom day'.
The day we open up is irreversible !!!
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
It’s all very well saying we should but at the moment we’re like King Canute. If NSW pulled a short, sharp lockdown at the start we could probably have had this thing sorted within a couple of weeks.

But they didn’t. We can’t change that fact and we’re now seeing that in both New Zealand and Victoria - two places where the virus has been treated with a lot more respect - stamping it out is a lot harder than before.

I dare say NZ will have more success and can keep a Covid Zero lifestyle for a lot longer but in Victoria we’re stuffed. As long as NSW is bubbling away like a pot of hot fat we’re going to keep having cases spill over the border leading to a constant yo-yo state of lockdown/wary vigilance.

Much like in the early days of Covid where it didn’t matter what stance you took towards lockdowns, the virus gave us no choice in the matter - we had to lockdown because it derailed too much of society.

Now we’re 16 months in and the situation has changed. Thanks to vaccine rates and better management the virus is still crippling but not as severely. However people are exhausted. You might have the fortitude and financial stability to be able to handle further lockdowns but other people don’t and you can’t control them any more than you can control the virus.
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
This is now the key point that needs to be hammered home to anyone getting lockdown fatigue. Your mental health issues will pale into insignificance when your overtaxed medical system sees you dying of easily curable things. When the ICU is full and lots of doctors are quarantining with covid lot's of things become fatal. Even if not fatal how about waiting weeks to have your broken bones set etc and what about all of the people who suffer when elective surgery is cancelled.

Also, spare a thought for the health care professionals that have to deal with the bloody mess caused by the rest of us. How'd you like to go to work each day to care for people with a deadly but preventable disease. What would your mental health be like if you had to decide who lived and died?

We can't under any circumstances stuff our health care system.

Basically, Sydney needs to HTFU. Melbourne did 200 days under lockdown but Sydney can't do a third of that without making noises about giving up.
All valid points but it's not just 'mental health' that's giving people lockdown fatigue. It's the fear of winding up on the streets because they can't cover rent/their mortgage. If your basic needs of food and shelter are threatened, you aren't going to give a shit about how hard it is to get a bed in an ICU. Lets be honest, are any of us regularly donating to food banks? Diverting a portion of our wages to people we know who're out of work? No, we're not, so why are we shocked and appalled when out of desperation they start joining up with the tinfoil hat wearing fuckwits protesting on the weekends?

Speaking from personal experience I've always been concerned about what happens when COVID gets into a workforce like my own. Working and living in close confines while trying to maintain complicated and fragile equipment that tends to go bang spectacularly when things go pear-shaped, it's not really an ideal environment to let an infectious disease run around

However more recently I've started to see the effects of what 16 months of the extreme caution approach has done and it's fucking scary. Essential inspection and maintenance on Major Hazard Facilities across Australia has taken a massive hit because protocols and border controls have meant that it's just not possible to get the manpower to site. Meanwhile the supply chains and onshore technical support have also been crippled.

Petrochemical plants, LNG terminals, Oil Rigs - none of these things were designed to be run at skeleton crew levels for long periods and if one does go bang because of fatigue, inexperienced personnel or materials/parts shortages, you're looking at a potentially catastrophic loss of life and untold environmental damage.

Throwing off the restraints and saying fuck it, isn't the answer. Not at this stage anyway but continuing with the Zero Covid At All Costs, 'kick the can down the road a bit further' mentality wont work either. We need to be actively dealing with this and adapting where necessary and that means learning to live with it.
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
For the record, Taiwan have shown that it IS possible to bounce back from a big Delta infection - they were recording around 550 a day back in late May after an outbreak took them by surprise. They're now down to single figures (8 yesterday) BUT they are a lot more socially compliant than we are - masks have been the norm there since day one and they've certainly had no mass protests nor I doubt much in the way of hissy fits from entitled cunts at the entrance to Bunnings either.

Taiwan COVID: 15,947 Cases and 832 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)
 

Oddjob

Merry fucking Xmas to you assholes
Basically, Sydney needs to HTFU. Melbourne did 200 days under lockdown but Sydney can't do a third of that without making noises about giving up.
Yeah this is great and all, but it's not going to work.

I've done about 6 months of lockdowns and compliance is holding up, but I'm also in the wealthiest electorate in Australia and near a beach.

It's a different world in Western Sydney. If you can think of something that will work that isn't martial law, I sure Gladys would love to hear it.

Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk
 

beeb

Dr. Beebenson, PhD HA, ST, Offset (hons)
I've done about 6 months of lockdowns and compliance is holding up, but I'm also in the wealthiest electorate in Australia and near a beach.
Where exactly have you done this 6 months of "lockdown"? Because if it's in NSW you've had it comically easy compared to all the other states actual locked-down lockdowns.
 

Litenbror

Eats Squid
This is a pretty sobering take on the Doherty modeling.

Thanks for posting that @downunderdallas it's a report I should have read earlier considering the decisions being made based off it's findings.

The first thing that stands out to the cynic in me is the 180 days they used in the modelling is the outside time for the next Federal election.
 

Oddjob

Merry fucking Xmas to you assholes
Where exactly have you done this 6 months of "lockdown"? Because if it's in NSW you've had it comically easy compared to all the other states actual locked-down lockdowns.
It was the northern beaches and we quashed every outbreak we've had, including a delta cluster in Belrose. That's the benchmark right?

If it's a suffering competition, you guys win easily just because Melbourne.

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Kerplunk

Likes Bikes and Dirt

Kerplunk

Likes Bikes and Dirt
This is now the key point that needs to be hammered home to anyone getting lockdown fatigue. Your mental health issues will pale into insignificance when your overtaxed medical system sees you dying of easily curable things. When the ICU is full and lots of doctors are quarantining with covid lot's of things become fatal. Even if not fatal how about waiting weeks to have your broken bones set etc and what about all of the people who suffer when elective surgery is cancelled.

Also, spare a thought for the health care professionals that have to deal with the bloody mess caused by the rest of us. How'd you like to go to work each day to care for people with a deadly but preventable disease. What would your mental health be like if you had to decide who lived and died?

We can't under any circumstances stuff our health care system.

Basically, Sydney needs to HTFU. Melbourne did 200 days under lockdown but Sydney can't do a third of that without making noises about giving up.
The state/fed govs have only had 18 months to prepare the hospital system/staffing for the pandemic.. Did they do it? No they used lockdowns instead and sat on their complacent arses until delta has come along..
I ended up in Hospital with a decent mtb injury months after lockdown ended in Melb and the hospital was packed to the rafters. I was put in temporary a room with 8 others for the night.. Suffered for 4 weeks waiting for an operation that should have been done within the week.. Tried to go private but the surgeon still couldn’t find an operating time anywhere.. The system was backed up with operations that were delayed because of lockdown + all the normal emergencies that occur..
Covid zero has equalled complacency by both gov’s and people getting the vax..
 

Litenbror

Eats Squid
The state/fed govs have only had 18 months to prepare the hospital system/staffing for the pandemic.. Did they do it? No they used lockdowns instead and sat on their complacent arses until delta has come along..
I ended up in Hospital with a decent mtb injury months after lockdown ended in Melb and the hospital was packed to the rafters. I was put in temporary a room with 8 others for the night.. Suffered for 4 weeks waiting for an operation that should have been done within the week.. Tried to go private but the surgeon still couldn’t find an operating time anywhere.. The system was backed up with operations that were delayed because of lockdown + all the normal emergencies that occur..
Covid zero has equalled complacency by both gov’s and people getting the vax..
They are all good and valid points and I hope you injury has healed @Kerplunk. I'm a bit confused why with the point you made above you're not agreeing with Matt Barrie's opinion that opening up too early would overwhelm the health system? If the health system is already straining and the modelling showing the number of hospitalisations will increase how will that get better? As @SummitFever pointed out and @Tubbsy linked too it's not only COVID patients who will suffer, as you yourself know from experience. Also even though we may not like the particular author valid points were made in the article about the assumptions used which should not be ignored. With our experience do we truly believe the health system will miraculously improve in the next 180 days and it will be able to handle the increase in patients? I'm all for opening up but I want an honest discussion using unfiltered analysis because that is the only way to properly identify our critical infrastructure weaknesses and shore them up before it gets out of hand.
 
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