The election thread - Two middle-late aged white men trying to be blokey and convincing..., same old shit, FFS.

[ForkinGreat]

 

[downunderdallas]

I don’t think it’s a possibility.
I think Albo is unelectable.
I’m usually wrong, I hope my streak continues.

For the life of me I cannot understand why people think Scummo would make a better PM. I'm with you guys though the Australian people have put way too many votes to One Nation and whatever Clive likes to call himself to feel good about themselves and their voting prowess. I guess people just don't follow the news and watch and listen to the lies and corruption. I'm pretty sure that even the "quiet australians" in WA were not a fan of Scummo's BS, it's a shame it wasn't a little earlier or they would have been wiped out here like they were at state level. The gloss has worn off Marky Mark with a lot of people and the once largely unified stance against Scummo trying to drag us into the Covid soup dissipated. Hopefully the combination of factors, the independents burning a few key Liberal seats will get it over the line.

 

[Mr Crudley]

I'm more over Clive than the other two.

Wish they would do rock, paper, scissors or spin for the winner on chocolate wheel and settle it tomorrow. Sigh...........

 

[bear the bear]

For the life of me I cannot understand why people think Scummo would make a better PM. I'm with you guys though the Australian people have put way too many votes to One Nation and whatever Clive likes to call himself to feel good about themselves and their voting prowess. I guess people just don't follow the news and watch and listen to the lies and corruption. I'm pretty sure that even the "quiet australians" in WA were not a fan of Scummo's BS, it's a shame it wasn't a little earlier or they would have been wiped out here like they were at state level. The gloss has worn off Marky Mark with a lot of people and the once largely unified stance against Scummo trying to drag us into the Covid soup dissipated. Hopefully the combination of factors, the independents burning a few key Liberal seats will get it over the line.

#murdochmediaenquiry

 

[ForkinGreat]

@ForkinGreat I feel like we may need to crowdfund you some fairly extensive therapy if Scomo manages to pull off another election "miracle"...

Thankyou for your kind offer. if the worst happens, I hope it is worth more than #AFUMA (Another Fucking Useless morrison Announcement).

I was pretty fucked off last time ScrotuMo won. This time, I'm determined that whatever happens, I can at least say that I have done all I can to shine a light on the absolute alleged criminal and corrupt systemic behaviour of the LNP federal 'government', and their role in corroding our democracy, making Australia a Pariah in the world community, and the endless lies, gaslighting and absolute fucking hypocrisy of these overpaid cockroaches.

I understand that many of you share my opinions, to some extent, and are horrified at the soulless morally bankrupt conduct of the LNP 'government', but feel disheartened and resigned to more of the same.

I would say this - staying silent only helps the oppressor. Call these shitbags out. Don't take their insane bullshit any more. talk to those around you.
Not the rusted on blue people. you won't change their minds. But the disengaged, the unsure, the newbies - Tell them, show them how corrupt the LNP are. Not all parties are the same. some are actually less evil than others.

Think of the most vulnerable people you know, and think about how YOU would want someone to vote on your behalf if your own life fell apart through poverty, illness, or any of the random curveballs that life throws our way - Then VOTE ACCORDINGLY.

 

[ForkinGreat]

https://kangaroocourtofaustralia.com/2021/11/16/federal-treasurer-josh-frydenberg-fraudulently-gave-his-best-mate-sevens-ryan-stokes-at-least-47-million-of-the-taxpayer-funded-jobkeeper/

 

[Squidfayce]

didnt know whether to put this in the ukraine thread (cos you know, war) or this thread (cos you know, economic impact).

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/china-regulators-reportedly-meet-banks-to-discuss-protecting-assets-from-us-sanctions/news-story/ac62b7e110bd4ebd046e09410bc7bbae

I love thinking about "what if" scenarios.

When I worked at a particular company I’ve referred to before in this thread, I used to wonder what was going on with all the Chinese investment. What was the end game? Why buy so much of it and why leave heaps of it empty? The effort in all these investment companies, proxy sourcing companies, fake employment references etc just appeared extreme. I figured that as wealth was being created in China where they have controls in place largely aimed at preventing individuals exporting that wealth, it sort of made sense why large swathes of population would want to divest out of China. Even if for a “just in case” situation. One of the darker theories I came up with over beers with some colleagues was that if China wanted to do serious economic damage to Australia, it could force its citizens who own Australian property to dump it all at once. While an unlikely scenario, not a crazy idea given how much control they exert on their citizens at home and abroad. I figure given a number of Chinese companies have also invested extensively into Australian property across all sectors, even without all the private investment, a massive tranche of property could be dumped. Now looking at the article, if we applied similar sanctions on china as the Ukraine, there could be an untold amount of commercial, rural and residential property to hit the market as a result of our own doing. China would need to do nothing to us.. We'd do it to ourselves. Could be mental.

 

[Litenbror]

didnt know whether to put this in the ukraine thread (cos you know, war) or this thread (cos you know, economic impact).

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/china-regulators-reportedly-meet-banks-to-discuss-protecting-assets-from-us-sanctions/news-story/ac62b7e110bd4ebd046e09410bc7bbae

I love thinking about "what if" scenarios.

When I worked at a particular company I’ve referred to before in this thread, I used to wonder what was going on with all the Chinese investment. What was the end game? Why buy so much of it and why leave heaps of it empty? The effort in all these investment companies, proxy sourcing companies, fake employment references etc just appeared extreme. I figured that as wealth was being created in China where they have controls in place largely aimed at preventing individuals exporting that wealth, it sort of made sense why large swathes of population would want to divest out of China. Even if for a “just in case” situation. One of the darker theories I came up with over beers with some colleagues was that if China wanted to do serious economic damage to Australia, it could force its citizens who own Australian property to dump it all at once. While an unlikely scenario, not a crazy idea given how much control they exert on their citizens at home and abroad. I figure given a number of Chinese companies have also invested extensively into Australian property across all sectors, even without all the private investment, a massive tranche of property could be dumped. Now looking at the article, if we applied similar sanctions on china as the Ukraine, there could be an untold amount of commercial, rural and residential property to hit the market as a result of our own doing. China would need to do nothing to us.. We'd do it to ourselves. Could be mental.

This is a great though exercise and I think one that we don't give much thought to. Quickest way to bring down a country would be to cripple it's economy and that's especially easy when that economy is as undeveloped as ours (we are as developed economically as Pakistan). Cheaper and more effective than military force and no one's fault than our own greed.

Edit: Read economic development as economic diversity. Australia does not have a very diverse economy so it is not as resilient as a diverse or more developed economy. Australia as of 2018 has a score of -53 ahead of Pakistan at -68.

 

[Freediver]

didnt know whether to put this in the ukraine thread (cos you know, war) or this thread (cos you know, economic impact).

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/china-regulators-reportedly-meet-banks-to-discuss-protecting-assets-from-us-sanctions/news-story/ac62b7e110bd4ebd046e09410bc7bbae

I love thinking about "what if" scenarios.

When I worked at a particular company I’ve referred to before in this thread, I used to wonder what was going on with all the Chinese investment. What was the end game? Why buy so much of it and why leave heaps of it empty? The effort in all these investment companies, proxy sourcing companies, fake employment references etc just appeared extreme. I figured that as wealth was being created in China where they have controls in place largely aimed at preventing individuals exporting that wealth, it sort of made sense why large swathes of population would want to divest out of China. Even if for a “just in case” situation. One of the darker theories I came up with over beers with some colleagues was that if China wanted to do serious economic damage to Australia, it could force its citizens who own Australian property to dump it all at once. While an unlikely scenario, not a crazy idea given how much control they exert on their citizens at home and abroad. I figure given a number of Chinese companies have also invested extensively into Australian property across all sectors, even without all the private investment, a massive tranche of property could be dumped. Now looking at the article, if we applied similar sanctions on china as the Ukraine, there could be an untold amount of commercial, rural and residential property to hit the market as a result of our own doing. China would need to do nothing to us.. We'd do it to ourselves. Could be mental.

If every Chines national sold their property at once it would make bugger all difference to the market. Despite what Murdoch tells you in his attempt to get you voting Liberal because "they are tougher on the Chinese", they simply don't own that much. The little bit prices could possibly drop would mean Chines losses.

This is a great though exercise and I think one that we don't give much thought to. Quickest way to bring down a country would be to cripple it's economy and that's especially easy when that economy is as undeveloped as ours (we are as developed economically as Pakistan). Cheaper and more effective than military force and no one's fault than our own greed.

Our economy is nothing like Pakistans, we've got 10 times the GDP from 10% of the population size and our government has 20 times the budget.

 

[Squidfayce]

This is a great though exercise and I think one that we don't give much thought to. Quickest way to bring down a country would be to cripple it's economy and that's especially easy when that economy is as undeveloped as ours (we are as developed economically as Pakistan). Cheaper and more effective than military force and no one's fault than our own greed.

I wouldn't call Australia's economy undeveloped. And im unclear on where you got the Pakistan comparison. Have you been there? i can asure you that you're comparing apples and long walks on the beach.

 

[Squidfayce]

If every Chines national sold their property at once it would make bugger all difference to the market. Despite what Murdoch tells you in his attempt to get you voting Liberal because "they are tougher on the Chinese", they simply don't own that much. The little bit prices could possibly drop would mean Chines losses.

Yes by official figures of actual foreign investment. The stuff that has had to have the purchasers sign declarations they are foreign etc. What the numbers havent considered is the Australian citizens acting as proxies for foreign investment who dont have to disclose shit and for all intents and purposes appear as a tally mark on the australian side of the ledger.. Ive described the scenario earlier. Approximately $8B worth assets per annum our business were lending against were written this way ....by one small lender. Extrapolate that by the entire mortgage market and were talking about some significant figures.

Dont underestimate how much of our real-estate is owned by foreigners despite having an Australian on the title. Australia and more specifically, our realestate market is one of the world easiest places launder money.

 

[Flow-Rider]

Yes by official figures of actual foreign investment. The stuff that has had to have the purchasers sign declarations they are foreign etc. What the numbers havent considered is the Australian citizens acting as proxies for foreign investment. Ive described the scenario earlier. Approximately 8B worth assets per annum our business were lending against were written this way ....by one small lender. Extrapolate that by the entire mortgage market and were talking about some significant figures.

Dont underestimate how much of our real-estate is owned by foreigners despite having an Australian on the title. Australia and more specifically, our realestate market is one of the world easiest places launder money.

They even invest in big companies using Chinese investment conglomerates with under 50% of the shares.

 

[Litenbror]

If every Chines national sold their property at once it would make bugger all difference to the market. Despite what Murdoch tells you in his attempt to get you voting Liberal because "they are tougher on the Chinese", they simply don't own that much. The little bit prices could possibly drop would mean Chines losses.


Our economy is nothing like Pakistans, we've got 10 times the GDP from 10% of the population size and our government has 20 times the budget.

I wouldn't call Australia's economy undeveloped. And im unclear on where you got the Pakistan comparison. Have you been there? i can asure you that you're comparing apples and long walks on the beach.

Apologies ment to say diverse not developed will edit. Only the wiki for country's economic diversity below but essentially Australia is not very developed for economic diversity which makes our economy more fragile and easily shocked.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Complexity_Index

 

[Squidfayce]

They even invest in big companies using Chinese investment conglomerates with under 50% of the shares.

that's not unusual though. Or hidden. Thats part of the reportable figures. We let them do this to an extent. The hidden version of this using proxies however is harder to quantify, but ASIC and other market regulators know what's going on and generally keep a pretty keen eye on it. Those folks are smart, just underfunded/under resourced. We've actively blocked a number attempts by Chinese interests to buy up strategically significant companies.

Apologies ment to say diverse not developed will edit. Only the wiki for country's economic diversity below but essentially Australia is not very developed for economic diversity which makes our economy more fragile and easily shocked.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Complexity_Index

not having economic diversity is a symptom of globalisation. Y'all want cheap goods and services and low taxes and democratic elections.

 

[Litenbror]

that's not unusual though. Or hidden. Thats part of the reportable figures. We let them do this to an extent. The hidden version of this using proxies however is harder to quantify, but ASIC and other market regulators know what's going on and generally keep a pretty keen eye on it. Those folks are smart, just underfunded/under resourced. We've actively blocked a number attempts by Chinese interests to buy up strategically significant companies.


not having economic diversity is a symptom of globalisation. Y'all want cheap goods and services and low taxes and democratic elections.

That's not really correct though. You look at the top 50 countries and they are a real mixed bag of economies, democracies with plenty of services, even NZ comes in at 54 with +0.13

We come in at 87 with -0.53

As a country we are lazy and just ride the resources booms from wool to iron ore. We have had plenty of opportunities to diversify could have become a global tech leader but have continually squandered it.

 

[Haakon]

That's not really correct though. You look at the top 50 countries and they are a real mixed bag of economies, democracies with plenty of services, even NZ comes in at 54 with +0.13

We come in at 87 with -0.53

As a country we are lazy and just ride the resources booms from wool to iron ore. We have had plenty of opportunities to diversify could have become a global tech leader but have continually squandered it.

The lucky country - lucky it hasn’t gone completely tits up yet.

 

[Squidfayce]

That's not really correct though. You look at the top 50 countries and they are a real mixed bag of economies, democracies with plenty of services, even NZ comes in at 54 with +0.13

We come in at 87 with -0.53

As a country we are lazy and just ride the resources booms from wool to iron ore. We have had plenty of opportunities to diversify could have become a global tech leader but have continually squandered it.

the problem with indexes like the ECI is their interpretation by laypeople. Often misunderstood and misused. Greece and elsalvador are 30 odd spots above us. Arguably not better off economically, socially or politically despite their "superior" economic complexity. Just take a look at some of the baltic and eastern European shitholes in the top 30. Also worse off than some of the countries well below them.

you can see what's in the special sauce here.

Methods | The Observatory of Economic Complexity

Learn about some of the basic ideas that shape the field of Economic Complexity.

oec.world

 

[Freediver]

Yes by official figures of actual foreign investment. The stuff that has had to have the purchasers sign declarations they are foreign etc. What the numbers havent considered is the Australian citizens acting as proxies for foreign investment who dont have to disclose shit and for all intents and purposes appear as a tally mark on the australian side of the ledger.. Ive described the scenario earlier. Approximately $8B worth assets per annum our business were lending against were written this way ....by one small lender. Extrapolate that by the entire mortgage market and were talking about some significant figures.

Dont underestimate how much of our real-estate is owned by foreigners despite having an Australian on the title. Australia and more specifically, our realestate market is one of the world easiest places launder money.

Yeah but we're talking about a market value of 10 trillion .

Apologies ment to say diverse not developed will edit. Only the wiki for country's economic diversity below but essentially Australia is not very developed for economic diversity which makes our economy more fragile and easily shocked.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Complexity_Index

Australia probably falls lower than other countries because of the amount high ubiquity products that we export. I don't think we are at risk here though because of how these products are produced eg. a beef feedlot exports a lot more beef and uses much higher tech than rangeland beef from Africa but it's still just beef. Iron is probably another example, lots of countries produce it but there's a lot more that can't and we've got shitloads.
I also think our economy being more dependent on things like exporting education should rate higher and that being able to PSOC as @scblack says is pretty good for the lifestyle.

 

[Squidfayce]

Yeah but we're talking about a market value of 10 trillion .

yes. exactly. the $8B one small lender decided to look the other way on is not uncommon. Take a look what the big 4 have been rapped on the knuckles for in relation to money laundering over the last couple of years - NAB just on tuesday....

If one small lender's 35% of business year on year constitutes foreign investment proxy deals, in a market globally known to have weak controls and is actively targeted by foreign investment this way and then extrapolated across a market which doesn't give a shit, where the business is about getting more lending out the door, you could sconservitively assume a double digit % of a 10T market. Even at a 10% conservative figure Thats not insignificant.. In anycase, were arguing about a hairbrained conspiracy theory i came up with, not what will in fact happen, but none the less an interesting thought experiment given what sanctions could do to such a situation.

 

[Litenbror]

the problem with indexes like the ECI is their interpretation by laypeople. Often misunderstood and misused. Greece and elsalvador are 30 odd spots above us. Arguably not better off economically, socially or politically despite their "superior" economic complexity. Just take a look at some of the baltic and eastern European shitholes in the top 30. Also worse off than some of the countries well below them.

you can see what's in the special sauce here.

Methods | The Observatory of Economic Complexity

Learn about some of the basic ideas that shape the field of Economic Complexity.

oec.world

Agreed it isn't a great measure but there is no question that Australia isn't a very diverse economy and we squander our opportunities to become more diverse. As a long term goal we should be aiming for a more advanced and diverse economy but we just get stuck shipping resources overseas.