Russia Vs. America; Here we go again kids!

[johnny]

Araura, at least, is a credible source. Unsure what their source is though:

 

[safreek]

Mr hands lives!

Only just man, only just

 

[johnny]

 

[PINT of Stella. mate!]

I'm not going to opine one whether he will get away with it as it's way too complex. What I think will happen is that a long-lasting guerilla campaign - violent and political - will emerge and his goals in Ukraine will be very hard won, if won at all. I think you will see a serious hardening of positions against Moscow all throughout Europe and in much of the global south, NATO will be revitalised and Putin's long term strategic goals will not be achieved. IF things go badly for Putin in Ukraine, I think he has a real risk of a Ceaușescuan ending - search out the video of the security cabinet meeting which Putin held two days ago, his head of intelligence wanted nothing to do with this action.

Two weeks back, US Secretary State toured our region (Aust., South Pac, Southeast Asia, etc.), and that was a message to China that the US is prioritising the Indo-Pacific over the European theatre. The fact that the US isn't getting bogged down in Europe and keeping their powder dry for the Western Pacific will make Beijing much more risk averse when it comes to Taiwan. The greatest deciding factors regards what Beijing does in the region is their own capabilities and domestic situation, what Taiwan's leadership does, and how present and committed the US and its partners are to the region.

Also keep in mind that the Taliban didn't 'take Afghanistan'. Trump set a date for America's withdrawal, which was a signal to the Taliban that all they had to do was wait. So they did and the attacks died down for a period of time. The Biden admin totally botched the withdrawal, but it was a US decision to leave, they weren't pushed out by opposing forces. Also keep in mind that the US was there for 20 years - in a landlocked country on the other side of the world, they spend a LOT of blood and treasure. What does that say they would be willing to spend on a serious strategic challenge in their own region, like China? Be careful to not overstate what the Afghan pull out means.

I’m inclined to agree re: the risk of being Caucescu-ed. The relatively few Russian casualties in the invasion of Georgia were enough to whip up protests and there have already been a number of outbreaks of popular vocal opposition to his rule over the years. Putin has to rig elections for a reason - he’s not as popular as he likes everyone to think. He’s definitely got a hardcore support base but much like Trump’s they’re not that large overall and the more extreme his actions, the more he turns the general population against him.
Once the families of dead Russian conscripts start marching alongside the traditional opposition of students/liberals/LGBT movement etc. it’ll be almost impossible to stop. Also if the West invoke meaningful sanctions like seizing Russian real estate from the families of oligarchs in places like London, New York, The Riviera etc. and maybe start revoking visas for their children to attend posh private schools like Eton, you might soon see an internal coup forming.

 

[Squidfayce]

Also if the West invoke meaningful sanctions like seizing Russian real estate from the families of oligarchs in places like London, New York, The Riviera etc. and maybe start revoking visas for their children to attend posh private schools like Eton, you might soon see an internal coup forming.

Doubt that will have any meaningful effect. While all those things are privileges, oligarchs are often well buffered. Cant holiday in London, holiday elsewhere. Home on Lake Como seized? No Drama, will just take the super yacht to the Greek isles. These individuals have vast wealth in many forms, spread across many jurisdictions that don't care to enforce sanctions.

Sanctions have largely been meaningless

 

[Scotty T]

View attachment 386578

Fuck I would love to see Putin go toe to toe with this bloke, although Putin would be dead in a matter of seconds it would still be good to see.

 

[Asininedrivel]

Sanctions have largely been meaningless

I mean yeah in the past it only tanked their currency and caused a financial crisis. No biggy

 

[Squidfayce]

No biggy

not to the people that they target. Thats what im saying.

to the general population? sure. But they dont matter, as has been very clearly demonstrated throughout Russia's modern history. Also what did it achieve? It didn't change Russia's overall trajectory. Russia keeps on keeping on.

 

[Squidfayce]

Fuck I would love to see Putin go toe to toe with this bloke, although Putin would be dead in a matter of seconds it would still be good to see.

You know Putin is a judo black belt right? The Jap dude is in cosplay

there's an equal number of articles calling Putins martial arts skills fake as there are analyzing them to suggest they are not. I wouldnt want to be the guy to test the theory.

 

[Oddjob]

You know Putin is a judo black belt right? The Jap dude is in cosplay

there's an equal number of articles calling Putins martial arts skills fake as there are analyzing them to suggest they are not. I wouldnt want to be the guy to test the theory.

Given the guy is a diplomat and has that getup he's almost certainly an aristocrat. So probably went to a fancy school and did Kendo/Fencing. If the swords that old, it would also need regular care and honing to preserve it. I'm backing the diplomat on this one.

Sent from my M2012K11AG using Tapatalk

 

[PINT of Stella. mate!]

Doubt that will have any meaningful effect. While all those things are privileges, oligarchs are often well buffered. Cant holiday in London, holiday elsewhere. Home on Lake Como seized? No Drama, will just take the super yacht to the Greek isles. These individuals have vast wealth in many forms, spread across many jurisdictions that don't care to enforce sanctions.

Sanctions have largely been meaningless

They've been meaningless so far because they've been half-arsed and tend not to target individuals directly. however military action is pretty much off the cards so sanctions are all we have at the moment. Might as well make the most of them.

No Drama, will just take the super yacht to the Greek isles.

Seize the fucking yachts! Most of them are currently moored in the harbours of NATO members. It's not difficult.
Ban their football teams from the Champions League/Europa League and by that I don't just mean the likes of Zenit St Petersburg and Spartak Moscow. Ban Chelsea as well, unless they get rid of their owner. Close Europe off to them altogether. Yes, they'll still be able to holiday in Dubai but lets be honest, it's not Monte Carlo and the oligarchs who are propping up Putin will soon tire of it and start to wonder if they've really backed the right horse.

Also Putin and his cronies have most of their wealth tied up in overseas investments. The rouble is tanking so the value of those investments is increasing daily and we have the power to take a lot of that away from them. We need to be as ruthless with the asset seizures as Putin is with his land seizures.

 

[Flow-Rider]

Also, NATO doesn't admit any nation that cannot safeguard its own borders. That's what I thought Putin's move to seize those two regions was earlier in the week - create permanent instability and stop any chance of Ukraine being admitted to NATO. Job done. Then presumably use the build up to leverage stuff Putin wants.

I don't see how Putin will survive this. Sure he'll get the masses all worked up in a patriotic frenzy, but if this gets bogged down and the only soldiers that come home are in body bags they'll turn on him pretty quickly.

He's arrogant and way too overconfident, just like Hitler was, but the elephant in the room is atomic warfare.

 

[Litenbror]

He's arrogant and way too overconfident, just like Hitler was, but the elephant in the room is atomic warfare.

Hitler did really well till we put boots on the ground

 

[PINT of Stella. mate!]

Fuck I would love to see Putin go toe to toe with this bloke, although Putin would be dead in a matter of seconds it would still be good to see.

I dare say Kyiv's Mayor would like a go at Putin first and I for one would pay good money to see it

Vitali Klitschko - Wikipedia

 

[Freediver]

View attachment 386578

Turns out it's actually the Ukrainian ambassador to Japan playing dress ups

 

[Tubbsy]

The West is not prepared for the financial pain coming its way

Forgive my scepticism when the West promises to put up a meaningful fight against Putin’s power play. Its leaders know the price of defiance will be high - and that its people are not ready for it.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Flow-Rider]

Hitler did really well till we put boots on the ground

The world is a lot more educated now than it was back then, but I suppose the worry is if it gets out of hand on a global scale and countries like China support Russia.

 

[Squidfayce]

They've been meaningless so far because they've been half-arsed and tend not to target individuals directly. however military action is pretty much off the cards so sanctions are all we have at the moment. Might as well make the most of them.

Seize the fucking yachts! Most of them are currently moored in the harbours of NATO members. It's not difficult.
Ban their football teams from the Champions League/Europa League and by that I don't just mean the likes of Zenit St Petersburg and Spartak Moscow. Ban Chelsea as well, unless they get rid of their owner. Close Europe off to them altogether. Yes, they'll still be able to holiday in Dubai but lets be honest, it's not Monte Carlo and the oligarchs who are propping up Putin will soon tire of it and start to wonder if they've really backed the right horse.

Also Putin and his cronies have most of their wealth tied up in overseas investments. The rouble is tanking so the value of those investments is increasing daily and we have the power to take a lot of that away from them. We need to be as ruthless with the asset seizures as Putin is with his land seizures.

A number of years ago, I worked in this space and hold several AML/CTF qualifications.

When investments, superyachts and houses are bought by the super rich or say an oligarch, the beneficial ownership is almost always obfuscated in such a way that you cant tell who actually owns what. Eg in the British Virgin Islands (and other places) you can set up various corporations, trusts etc that do not require you to provide any proof of identity (this is key). You can then use those BVI corporations to be the beneficial owner of other corporations in other jurisdictions where you want to do business and buy assets. You can layer these corporations ups several levels if you wish, and many do using clean people as proxys. They get paid a marginal sum for their involvement.

Most jurisdictions of course have Know Your Customer obligations under AML/CTF laws and wont allow these secondary vehicles to be created unless due diligence is performed - As party of those due diligence requirements, you are required to "verify" the identity of the ultimate beneficial owner. But when the original parent company in the BVI doesnt have any official record required for an Identity of the ultimat ebeneficial owener, verification of the identity becomes somewhat superfluous. Most jurisdictions (including Australia) allow you to take a letter from the company accountant as Verification of that identity. That letter will often have some random clean persons name. This is the type of activity Mossack Fonseca effectively specialises in.

If you cant prove that Oligarch XYZ is the actual beneficial owner of the the BVI corporation, then any assets that ultimately belong to that corporation cant just be seized.

This is why targeted sanctions don't really work.

It works against those who haven't worked out how the international financial system runs or dont have the capital to hire the type of profesionals that do.

 

[PINT of Stella. mate!]

A number of years ago, I worked in this space and hold several AML/CTF qualifications.

When investments, superyachts and houses are bought by the super rich or say an oligarch, the beneficial ownership is almost always obfuscated in such a way that you cant tell who actually owns what. Eg in the British Virgin Islands (and other places) you can set up various corporations, trusts etc that do not require you to provide any proof of identity (this is key). You can then use those BVI corporations to be the beneficial owner of other corporations in other jurisdictions where you want to do business and buy assets. You can layer these corporations ups several levels if you wish, and many do using clean people as proxys. They get paid a marginal sum for their involvement.

Most jurisdictions of course have Know Your Customer obligations under AML/CTF laws and wont allow these secondary vehicles to be created unless due diligence is performed - As party of those due diligence requirements, you are required to "verify" the identity of the ultimate beneficial owner. But when the original parent company in the BVI doesnt have any official record required for an Identity of the ultimat ebeneficial owener, verification of the identity becomes somewhat superfluous. Most jurisdictions (including Australia) allow you to take a letter from the company accountant as Verification of that identity. That letter will often have some random clean persons name. This is the type of activity Mossack Fonseca effectively specialises in.

If you cant prove that Oligarch XYZ is the actual beneficial owner of the the BVI corporation, then any assets that ultimately belong to that corporation cant just be seized.

This is why targeted sanctions don't really work.

It works against those who haven't worked out how the international financial system runs or dont have the capital to hire the type of profesionals that do.

I know there's a shit-ton of legalities that are supposed prevent such things but it's a time of war and those legalities can easily be sidestepped - just look at Guantanamo Bay for example. The US detained hundreds of people without charge or trial for years using the extraordinary circumstances of 9/11 as a justification - Not that I'm condoning what went on there but I'm sure you'd agree nobody's going to take to the streets protesting because a shell company in the Cayman Islands has lost a giant boat.

On paper it's often difficult to prove the true ownership of assets but the intelligence services are usually clued up as to who is supposed to own what and if they take the approach that local law enforcement in the US takes when it comes to asset seizure (i.e just take it and force the concerned party to jump through all manner of legal hoops to get it back), I'm sure you'd soon see a change in heart.

 

[Squidfayce]

I know there's a shit-ton of legalities that are supposed prevent such things but it's a time of war and those legalities can easily be sidestepped - just look at Guantanamo Bay for example. The US detained hundreds of people without charge or trial for years using the extraordinary circumstances of 9/11 as a justification - Not that I'm condoning what went on there but I'm sure you'd agree nobody's going to take to the streets protesting because a shell company in the Cayman Islands has lost a giant boat.

On paper it's often difficult to prove the true ownership of assets but the intelligence services are usually clued up as to who is supposed to own what and if they take the approach that local law enforcement in the US takes when it comes to asset seizure (i.e just take it and force the concerned party to jump through all manner of legal hoops to get it back), I'm sure you'd soon see a change in heart.

yeah nah. False equivalence. Guantanamo was set up to purportedly circumvent acts of terrorism where it was thought some of those attacks could include the use of WMDs. Changing laws to seize a boat of some rich dude that has some spurious links to a country who's politics we dont agree with is kind of not on the same level.

It would also send the message to legitimate businesses and investors that the laws and regulations setup to protect their business interests in those countries could no longer be relied on and would jeapordise that country's ability to attract favorable investment. There is a reason that these laws are easy to get around, no country is about to go an make sweeping changes to them.

Sometimes authorities find enough of a loophole to make such a seizure without rocking the boat, but it's often irrelevant. To us losing a 15M home in a major capital city would be devastating and likely life destroying. To an oligarch, its just the loss of a fraction of a percent of their wealth, which is spread across various assets and jurisdictions. This is often referred to as "the cost of doing business". There is no way that a co-ordinated seizure across all these jurisdictions could ever occur.