Russia Vs. America; Here we go again kids!

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
From having been glued to ABC News since mid-afternoon and subsequently the English-language broadcasts from Germany’s Deutsche-Welle that ABC are showing in the wee small hours the biggest thing I’ve learned is that I’ve been pronouncing Kiev all wrong.

Apparently it’s pronounced ‘Keev’ now. Does this new pronunciation extend to the eponymous delicious breadcrumb-wrapped garlic-filled chicken fillets? Has anyone thought to update the staff at the bistro counter at my local pub?

why, yes. I have been drinking. Why do you ask?
 

safreek

*******
A lot of images/video circulating on the internet is from a Syrian conflict that occurred several years ago. Not the current Ukrainian events

Trolls trying to feed the fire in the name of getting likes and views on social media platforms.

And some mainstream media using said videos/images in their reports.

Despicable Keyboard Warriors....
Certainly agree there, a lot of sad individuals out there
 

Asininedrivel

caviar connoisseur
I think that's really up for argument:
1 - Ukraine applied for NATO membership (NATO doesn't invite, countries have to apply)
2 - Ukraine has a long history of being dominated against its will by Russia
3 - NATO is a defensive organisation. To trigger a reaction from NATO, one of its member states must come under attack. NATO has never launched offensive operations in its history - I believe article 5 (or is it 7, I always get it mixed up with ANZUS...) has only ever been invoked once, when the US was attacked on 9/11. For Nato to do anything to Russia, it would have to come under attack from Russia first
4 - NATO's charter refuses membership to any country that is in a state of conflict - Ukraine has been in a state of conflict since 2014 (thanks to Russia)

The bottom line is, if Russia didn't threaten Ukraine, it wouldn't be seeking membership in NATO or looking to the EU. Ukraine is a sovereign state and it should be allowed to formulate it's own foreign and defence policies.
Also, NATO doesn't admit any nation that cannot safeguard its own borders. That's what I thought Putin's move to seize those two regions was earlier in the week - create permanent instability and stop any chance of Ukraine being admitted to NATO. Job done. Then presumably use the build up to leverage stuff Putin wants.

I don't see how Putin will survive this. Sure he'll get the masses all worked up in a patriotic frenzy, but if this gets bogged down and the only soldiers that come home are in body bags they'll turn on him pretty quickly.
 

Litenbror

Eats Squid
Also, NATO doesn't admit any nation that cannot safeguard its own borders. That's what I thought Putin's move to seize those two regions was earlier in the week - create permanent instability and stop any chance of Ukraine being admitted to NATO. Job done. Then presumably use the build up to leverage stuff Putin wants.

I don't see how Putin will survive this. Sure he'll get the masses all worked up in a patriotic frenzy, but if this gets bogged down and the only soldiers that come home are in body bags they'll turn on him pretty quickly.
I think that was one of the primary purposes of the 2014 annexation etc. NATO won't accept a nation that is currently in conflict so the annexure of the region's stopped them applying till Putin was ready to move.
 

link1896

Mr Greenfield
The USA had landed 1300 tons of machine guns, stinger missiles and javelin missiles by the 11th Feb.

Ukrainian citizens are being handed one machine gun and one javelin upon showing their passport. A Javelin is 190k usd a pop, spare missiles 100k usd each. Uncle Sam has spent some of its allocated 2.7 BILLION usd budget for assistance in Ukraine.

Messy. It’s always messy.

Stan Grant I think hit the nail on the head:


 

dazz

Downhill Dazz
Also, NATO doesn't admit any nation that cannot safeguard its own borders. That's what I thought Putin's move to seize those two regions was earlier in the week - create permanent instability and stop any chance of Ukraine being admitted to NATO. Job done. Then presumably use the build up to leverage stuff Putin wants.

I don't see how Putin will survive this. Sure he'll get the masses all worked up in a patriotic frenzy, but if this gets bogged down and the only soldiers that come home are in body bags they'll turn on him pretty quickly.
Hugely uneducated opinion here.
I think he'll get away with it.
I reckon the way Putin see's it, if the Taliban can seize back control of 'their' country that had US military actually on the ground, then 'taking back' the Ukraine when there is no EU or US military in the way should be a piece of cake. I mean the Taliban takeover was only last year and it's already old news (sure I'd have a different view of that if I lived there). Russia has 2.8 billion Indians and Chinese that he can sell his gas and oil to. And China will be happy to sell tech to Russia. So does Putin really care that much about what the West thinks and the economic sanctions? Small price to pay in the pursuit of Russkiy Mir.
Xi Jinping will be watching and evaluating the will and resolve of the West to actively support the little guys who want to stand on their own. So far it's looking like a fair bit of 'hey that's naughty, we won't play with you if you do that' and no sign of actually stepping in to stop the little guy from coping a beating and offer any kind of protection (apart from throwing them a few twigs to defend themselves with). Taking Taiwan is just a matter of picking the right time.

@johnny, is this simplistic view all that far from the mark?
 

mike14

Likes Bikes and Dirt
The USA had landed 1300 tons of machine guns, stinger missiles and javelin missiles by the 11th Feb.

Ukrainian citizens are being handed one machine gun and one javelin upon showing their passport. A Javelin is 190k usd a pop, spare missiles 100k usd each. Uncle Sam has spent some of its allocated 2.7 BILLION usd budget for assistance in Ukraine.

Messy. It’s always messy.

Stan Grant I think hit the nail on the head:


While not wanting to down play the seriousness of the situation; having watched enough grunts bumblefuck around trying to get the javlein and its components working correctly, the thought of all the accidents and equipment breakages that would occur in the hands of random civilians is quite humorous!
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
Hugely uneducated opinion here.
I think he'll get away with it.
I reckon the way Putin see's it, if the Taliban can seize back control of 'their' country that had US military actually on the ground, then 'taking back' the Ukraine when there is no EU or US military in the way should be a piece of cake. I mean the Taliban takeover was only last year and it's already old news (sure I'd have a different view of that if I lived there). Russia has 2.8 billion Indians and Chinese that he can sell his gas and oil to. And China will be happy to sell tech to Russia. So does Putin really care that much about what the West thinks and the economic sanctions? Small price to pay in the pursuit of Russkiy Mir.
Xi Jinping will be watching and evaluating the will and resolve of the West to actively support the little guys who want to stand on their own. So far it's looking like a fair bit of 'hey that's naughty, we won't play with you if you do that' and no sign of actually stepping in to stop the little guy from coping a beating and offer any kind of protection (apart from throwing them a few twigs to defend themselves with). Taking Taiwan is just a matter of picking the right time.

@johnny, is this simplistic view all that far from the mark?
I'm not going to opine one whether he will get away with it as it's way too complex. What I think will happen is that a long-lasting guerilla campaign - violent and political - will emerge and his goals in Ukraine will be very hard won, if won at all. I think you will see a serious hardening of positions against Moscow all throughout Europe and in much of the global south, NATO will be revitalised and Putin's long term strategic goals will not be achieved. IF things go badly for Putin in Ukraine, I think he has a real risk of a Ceaușescuan ending - search out the video of the security cabinet meeting which Putin held two days ago, his head of intelligence wanted nothing to do with this action.

Two weeks back, US Secretary State toured our region (Aust., South Pac, Southeast Asia, etc.), and that was a message to China that the US is prioritising the Indo-Pacific over the European theatre. The fact that the US isn't getting bogged down in Europe and keeping their powder dry for the Western Pacific will make Beijing much more risk averse when it comes to Taiwan. The greatest deciding factors regards what Beijing does in the region is their own capabilities and domestic situation, what Taiwan's leadership does, and how present and committed the US and its partners are to the region.

Also keep in mind that the Taliban didn't 'take Afghanistan'. Trump set a date for America's withdrawal, which was a signal to the Taliban that all they had to do was wait. So they did and the attacks died down for a period of time. The Biden admin totally botched the withdrawal, but it was a US decision to leave, they weren't pushed out by opposing forces. Also keep in mind that the US was there for 20 years - in a landlocked country on the other side of the world, they spend a LOT of blood and treasure. What does that say they would be willing to spend on a serious strategic challenge in their own region, like China? Be careful to not overstate what the Afghan pull out means.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
While not wanting to down play the seriousness of the situation; having watched enough grunts bumblefuck around trying to get the javlein and its components working correctly, the thought of all the accidents and equipment breakages that would occur in the hands of random civilians is quite humorous!
I'm actually very skeptical that Javelins will be handed to any old civilian. Firstly, for the reasons which you raise, secondly, because the Ukrainians have trained their soldiers to use them and that's where they will be much more effective (especially with command and control), and lastly, the US knows the risk of these falling into the wrong hands and would likely have tried to place some level of control on their usage and disbursement. Well, I hope they did anyway.
 
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