COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

[moorey]

I'm not making any assumptions. I was simply pointing out that a peak of 4400 cases per day, while a scary number, is still an incredibly small portion of the pop in Vic. Only a tiny percentage of people in the 'open up' camp will have close or direct contact with the virus.

Basically, I was trying to say that I don't think that number of cases is high enough to sway opinion in the way that caad9 described, ie though close or direct contact. I'll be stoked if I'm proven wrong though!

I’m less concerned about infection projections than death projections.

 

[caad9]

I'm not making any assumptions. I was simply pointing out that a peak of 4400 cases per day, while a scary number, is still an incredibly small portion of the pop in Vic. Only a tiny percentage of people in the 'open up' camp will have close or direct contact with the virus.

Basically, I was trying to say that I don't think that number of cases is high enough to sway opinion in the way that caad9 described, ie though close or direct contact. I'll be stoked if I'm proven wrong though!

I am in an area that remains pretty untouched by Covid, however the last 5-6 weeks it's gotten closer.
With 9 times as many cases per day, I think it's going to be close to most people.

I am unsure whether that changes the fence sitter mindset but it will become more real and hopefully that is enough to encourage a rethink

 

[Haakon]

I’ve got a trip fully booked for November. My hopes aren’t high.

Im planning on moving there - so expect to roll into an unfurnished house with just a car and trailer load and be living on supermarket deliveries for a fortnight!

But given im currently surrounded by the Gold Standard Gladys Plague, they wouldn't let me do even that at the moment...

 

[Art Vanderlay]

Im planning on moving there - so expect to roll into an unfurnished house with just a car and trailer load and be living on supermarket deliveries for a fortnight!

But given im currently surrounded by the Gold Standard Gladys Plague, they wouldn't let me do even that at the moment...

How dare you call an alpha 'just a car', shame on you

 

[tubby74]

in an LGA of concern but now we can travel the whole LGA. a bushwalk around lake parra will be nice after the not too bad but sterile area around olympic park. can also finally meet up with my parents somewhere for a picnic. though really its the grandkids they want to see

 

[stoff]

Agreed. Assuming that’s the worse case scenarios, but it was still upsetting to read (in The Age, not a clickbait rag)

They've got themselves a bit mixed up. The 4400 is correct. The 2200 is total deaths over six months. Table below is snapshotted out of the actual report.

 

[moorey]

They've got themselves a bit mixed up. The 4400 is correct. The 2200 is total deaths over six months. Table below is snapshotted out of the actual report.

View attachment 380474

Ah, cool. Blood pressure dropping….cheers.

 

[dazz]

I’m less concerned about infection projections than death projections.

I don't see how deaths could possibly get that high, NSW looks to have peaked at around 1600 new cases i think? Peak daily deaths I don't even know, but quite low. Even IF Vic got to 4400 new infections per day, why would daily deaths be multiple orders of magnitude higher than what NSW has seen, add on top that by December we'll have much higher vaccine coverage than what NSW has currently.

IDK, maybe some of their 'scenarios' involve only providing patients with Trump recommended treatments and Australia's entire vaccine supply chain just vanishing??

We've now had a good 18 months of charting outbreaks all round the world with various levels of mitigation tactics employed. Nowhere has it just continued to skyrocket, I mean look at India with a pop of 1.4 billion, they peaked at 400 000 cases per day against Delta and now have a pretty steady 35000 cases per day. Scaling for Australia's pop that's 7300 peak and then dropping back to 640 per day. I'd like to think our health care system, vax coverage, and infection mitigating strategies, we're in a much better position to achieve a far more favorable outcome than what India have managed. (Even IF you take into account for massive under reporting that likely was/is going on over there.)

EDIT: Stoff posted while I was typing, numbers still seem a bit pessimistic to me.

 

[moorey]

I don't see how deaths could possibly get that high, NSW looks to have peaked at around 1600 new cases i think? Peak daily deaths I don't even know, but quite low. Even IF Vic got to 4400 new infections per day, why would daily deaths be multiple orders of magnitude higher than what NSW has seen, add on top that by December we'll have much higher vaccine coverage than what NSW has currently.

IDK, maybe some of their 'scenarios' involve only providing patients with Trump recommended treatments and Australia's entire vaccine supply chain just vanishing??

We've now had a good 18 months of charting outbreaks all round the world with various levels of mitigation tactics employed. Nowhere has it just continued to skyrocket, I mean look at India with a pop of 1.4 billion, they peaked at 400 000 cases per day against Delta and now have a pretty steady 35000 cases per day. Scaling for Australia's pop that's 7300 peak and then dropping back to 640 per day. I'd like to think our health care system, vax coverage, and infection mitigating strategies, we're in a much better position to achieve a far more favorable outcome than what India have managed. (Even IF you take into account for massive under reporting that likely was/is going on over there.)

EDIT: Stoff posted while I was typing, numbers still seem a bit pessimistic to me.

Combo of bad reporting and worst case scenarios. I don’t have the passion to check sources usually, so I took The Age at face value, generally being pretty reliable.

 

[HamboCairns]

I don't see how deaths could possibly get that high

Without doing any reading of the report - does this assume that ICU wards being overwhelmed, therefore leading to more deaths?

 

[dazz]

Without doing any reading of the report - does this assume that ICU wards being overwhelmed, therefore leading to more deaths?

yep, see Stoff's post above... Still very worst case numbers IMO.

 

[HamboCairns]

yep, see Stoff's post above... Still very worst case numbers IMO.

Well there you go - exceeding ICU capacity will lead to significantly more deaths, and why we need constant lockdowns until the majority are vaccinated.

 

[moorey]

Well there you go - exceeding ICU capacity will lead to significantly more deaths, and why we need constant lockdowns until the majority are vaccinated.

Particularly vax. Still no vaxxed vics in ICU.

 

[beeb]

yep, see Stoff's post above... Still very worst case numbers IMO.

It's probably factoring in a lot of folk with existing conditions/old age/poor health that'll make death (sped up) by COVID more likely once it's jumping around in the community.

 

[SummitFever]

It feels like the 'open up' camp still believe it won't touch them...

All the covidiots are like that. These are the people that when interviewed state "I never though it would happen to me" when a rational thinking person would think quite the opposite.

Even if "only" 2000 people die, its still 2000 people we're talking about. Even if you don't give a shit about people (and their families) the "cost" of having 2000 people die is no joke. An economist in America put the value of a human life to the economy around $5m. Kill 2000 people of covid and that's $10 billion down the drain. Kill a whole bunch more people because they can't get medical treatment (or delay treatment and diagnosis) because you've fucked the medical system and that's a whole lot more money down the drain.

Combine this with months and months of half-arse lockdowns and a shitty quarantine system and you can see the whole thing adding up to a massive economic debacle.

The Australian economy was showing serious signs of weakness before covid hit. Not dealing with covid properly is going to be an enduring grindstone for us all to bear for decades into the future. It'll be gift that keeps giving.

 

[Calvin27]

The Australian economy was showing serious signs of weakness before covid hit.

We seem to thrive on disasters for some reason. Eveytime there is a global event we seem to do well. GFC, GFC2.0 GFC that never ended, housing crisis, Euro crisis, covid....

 

[HamboCairns]

We seem to thrive on disasters for some reason. Eveytime there is a global event we seem to do well. GFC, GFC2.0 GFC that never ended, housing crisis, Euro crisis, covid....

Just wait until global warming ramps up. We'll all be moving to Tassie.

 

[ozzybmx]

Not convinced Tassie will let me in by January at this rate...

I’ve got a trip fully booked for November. My hopes aren’t high.

I booked the boat this morning. 13th December till 9th Jan.

27 days in Tassie, I said 'we'll just wing it with campsites'... now she's trying to lock in x-mas and New Year somewhere.

I am paying for nothing in advance unless they have a 100% refund cancellation policy.

 

[ozzybmx]

Its looking pretty grim to be honest. Just got off the phone with covid-19.sa.gov helpline.

If I was to enter Victoria from Tasmania TODAY on the SOT and drive straight to the border without stopping, I would be required to isolated for 14 day and get tested in days 1,3 & 11

Thats in addition to having the correct entry paperwork lodged and accepted.

 

[Stredda]

Just wait until global warming ramps up. We'll all be moving to Tassie.

You lot just keep your covid ravaged arses where they are