The election thread - Two middle-late aged white men trying to be blokey and convincing..., same old shit, FFS.
- Thread starter johnny
- Start date
pharmaboy
Eats Squid
Yeah, but in the vernacular use of the term, sociopaths is usually used for narcissists without empathy and psychopaths is used to describe murderers - I blame the TV
Back to important news, the lib back bench have gone for the spill, so MT and TA will be on the phone from now on.....
Bermshot
Banned
You are wrong pharma, this is the important news, I did't detract from the thread at all.
Well, that got interesting very quickly, didn't it??!
A spill of positions on Tuesday is, I think, earlier than what any new leader would have liked. We're not even half way through the electoral term, so the honeymoon period the new leader will get (I'll nominate 6 months, could be less or more) could be well and truly over before an election is due. The next federal election could be brought forward, but seeing voters don't seem to like politicians at the moment (campaigns or voting), it's probably not a good idea to bring it forward. It was for those reasons that I thought Turnbull wouldn't challenge. However this has been brought on by a disgruntled backbench.
I'll tip Turnbull to win, because I think it would be better for the Libs to get the unrest out of the way once and for all, rather than have it fester for a few more months. Reith said in a column during the week that once the leadership doubts start, they typically don't stop, so lance the issue now and go with what you think the eventual outcome will be.
If Turnbull wins, I'll be interested to see how he juggles his past positions (particularly ETS) with current policies. As a skilled communicator he'll no doubt spin his way out of it. We'll see if he's taken a humility injection too.
A spill of positions on Tuesday is, I think, earlier than what any new leader would have liked. We're not even half way through the electoral term, so the honeymoon period the new leader will get (I'll nominate 6 months, could be less or more) could be well and truly over before an election is due. The next federal election could be brought forward, but seeing voters don't seem to like politicians at the moment (campaigns or voting), it's probably not a good idea to bring it forward. It was for those reasons that I thought Turnbull wouldn't challenge. However this has been brought on by a disgruntled backbench.
I'll tip Turnbull to win, because I think it would be better for the Libs to get the unrest out of the way once and for all, rather than have it fester for a few more months. Reith said in a column during the week that once the leadership doubts start, they typically don't stop, so lance the issue now and go with what you think the eventual outcome will be.
If Turnbull wins, I'll be interested to see how he juggles his past positions (particularly ETS) with current policies. As a skilled communicator he'll no doubt spin his way out of it. We'll see if he's taken a humility injection too.
Pastavore
Eats Squid
Form the email advising of the leadership spill:
"The last time this outpouring of concern happened was when we were being led to support the Rudd Government's ETS, and faced with this erosion of our base support we acted.
"I think that we must bring this to a head, and test the support of the leadership in the party room.
"As I have said in the past, I have no front bench ambitions. I just want to make sure that the economic vandals do not get back into power and our children and grandchildren are not left to pay Labor's bill. I do this because I believe it is in the best interests of the people of our country."
So the issue of an emissions trading scheme is going to be an interesting one for Team Turnip, assuming they get the leadership.
"The last time this outpouring of concern happened was when we were being led to support the Rudd Government's ETS, and faced with this erosion of our base support we acted.
"I think that we must bring this to a head, and test the support of the leadership in the party room.
"As I have said in the past, I have no front bench ambitions. I just want to make sure that the economic vandals do not get back into power and our children and grandchildren are not left to pay Labor's bill. I do this because I believe it is in the best interests of the people of our country."
So the issue of an emissions trading scheme is going to be an interesting one for Team Turnip, assuming they get the leadership.
pink poodle
気が狂っている男
It should be a bigger issue already. There can't be many other developed countries with out one or something similar?
scblack
Leucocholic
As Malcolm Turnbull himself said the other day, an ETS works better in theory than practice.
I do think he would shit it in, if he dropped his ETS stance.
pink poodle
気が狂っている男
He would shit in with an ETS as well. The issue shouldn't be whether it works 100% as well as the economic modeling or is less effective...it is about establishing an effective framework for reducing nasty emissions. If we allow conservative business interests to stiffle that any longer we eventually find ourselves globally isolated. There are plenty of examples of other environmental/social/justice/economic etc issues where countries have been isolated globally as a means of coercing them to conform. Pretending its all hocus pocus isn't really a viable option.
With the down turn in coal exports we are going to need to find something new to sell anyway, so it would seem a pretty good time to start looking more seriously at smarter energy etc.
indica
Serial flasher
Butt will lose it before the next election.
GeoffRidesBikes
Likes Dirt
This.
Without a credible threat to the seat he will remain leader. There are better alternatives in the party that would be viable, sure, but it would be career suicide to take it on knowing full well that anyone who succeeds Abbott will surely lose the next federal election. The likes of Bishop, Turnbull and even Morrison et al aren't stupid enough to not know that.
They'll simply bide their time until next election, sit in as leader of the opposition for the inevitable Labor term that will commence in 2016 and clean up next time the door spins around.
I hope you're wrong because that would make the most likely replacement someone who can't afford to wait till 2019. Prime Minister Kevin Andrews. And unfortunately I doubt Julia Gillard will be willing to be deputy to him.
placebo
Likes Dirt
It never really mattered to the degree people thought. The carbon tax was primarily just a shifting of the domestic tax base, not an increase in total taxation, basically similar to the introduction of the GST. Exports were exempt and taxation concessions given to offset it's imposition so that the effects were revenue neutral overall, while reducing carbon emissions. One of the bigger impacts on the current governments budget has been the loss of carbon tax revenue, without the elimination of the tax sweeteners given in the implementation of it.
Every mineral boom ends with politicans promising to move the economy away from a reliance on primary sector exports. Nothing ever changes.
I hope this drags on endlessly for the schadenfreude. His rejection at the polls will be as deserved as Rudd's, as will his continued political beatdown at the hands of his dissatisfied backbenchers and a hostile senate.
[video=youtube_share;nVuJLiuo5zc]http://youtu.be/nVuJLiuo5zc[/video]
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Agree 100%.
pink poodle
気が狂っている男
Every mineral boom ends with politicans promising to move the economy away from a reliance on primary sector exports. Nothing ever changes.
When I watched those Keating clips from the other night, this was something about the Hewson/Howard campaign he was all over. The reliance on natural resources to fuel the economy...can't really say what would have been different had Howard not fallen on good luck though.
I recall when Venezuela was in the oil spot light and Chavez was in the media frequently (it was well coincided with our own resource success) someone from the Howard government being quite unrighteous about Chavez being too reliant on his oil income for his dangerous left idealism.
When I watched those Keating clips from the other night, this was something about the Hewson/Howard campaign he was all over. The reliance on natural resources to fuel the economy...can't really say what would have been different had Howard not fallen on good luck though.
I recall when Venezuela was in the oil spot light and Chavez was in the media frequently (it was well coincided with our own resource success) someone from the Howard government being quite unrighteous about Chavez being too reliant on his oil income for his dangerous left idealism.
pharmaboy
Eats Squid
Till Tuesday , the MT by 5 votes
John U
MTB Precision
Really? Compared to when?
What I find interesting is how silent they are. The only one you hear anything from is Barnaby Joyce. From the outside it appears they stand up to the Liberals on nothing.
Ivan
Eats Squid
NATIONALS MPs will demand a written guarantee from Malcolm Turnbull that he will not pursue an emissions trading scheme, gay marriage or backtrack on asylum-seeker policy if he topples Tony Abbott to become prime minister.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...essive-instincts/story-fn59niix-1227209730141
maybe they've always been like this? :noidea: