The election thread - Two middle-late aged white men trying to be blokey and convincing..., same old shit, FFS.

[Pastavore]

But why do you expect Liberals to change leaders with (seemingly) every bad opinion poll, like Labor did? Being a party leader is about more than simply opinion polls.

Eventually self-interest will come to the fore. With Abbott as leader at the next election, a large number of Liberal backbenchers will become unempolyed. Yes, they will phrase it as doing the right thing for the country or some other beneficent platitude, but they will be looking to save their own skins.

 

[Norco Maniac]

40% of the sitting LNP members have declared no confidence in their leader by voting to remove him from power and people see this as a media beat up?! That's difficult for me to understand.

Abbott now has to effect a pretty miraculous turn around in personal conduct and opinion polls to justify his continued leadership. Short of that he is gone, which I believe will be the case.

we can only hope. i doubt tho if a leadership change will help the Libs, but i also doubt that Labor has the balls to make anything good of the next election. same shite, different day.

meanwhile Australia provides the Yanks with pure comedy gold.... and Twitter went off over the weekend whilst i was too busy racing # ImStickingWithTony

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3IaKVmkXuk

 

[pharmaboy]

Eventually self-interest will come to the fore. With Abbott as leader at the next election, a large number of Liberal backbenchers will become unempolyed. Yes, they will phrase it as doing the right thing for the country or some other beneficent platitude, but they will be looking to save their own skins.

Even for true believers, you are better off in power with policies at centre with the occasional right of centre policies than in opposition with a govt left of centre for instance.

For me, the fact that Cory Benardi is such a strong advocate for Abbott, has turned me off Abbott - not to mention the knighthood brain fade of epic proportions.

If I was the front bench, what I'd be really pissed off about, is Abbott coming out and saying this is what Labor did etc etc. This us the kind of outburst and stupidity that reaks of self interested egotists. It's exactly the sort of stupidity that K Rudd et al got upto, ie if it's not me then it's nobody - the enemy from within.

 

[johnny]

OK, maybe more than simply a beat-up:nod::tape2:. But beat out of proportion by the media I do believe.

No-one put their hand up at any time during this media frenzy. I am absolutely sure there is many discontented back-benchers, but there are many more that are content (at least content enough to sit on their hands presently). I agree Abbott has been pretty shithouse with many policies and is running a shambolic govt. to some degree and at times. But other than some captains calls he is not to blame alone for that. Maybe he will be gone soon, I dunno.

But why do you expect Liberals to change leaders with (seemingly) every bad opinion poll, like Labor did? Being a party leader is about more than simply opinion polls.

Another way you can look at things is that even without an alternative leader to rally around this 40% still challenged the leader. That is to say that their actions were not out of support for an alternative leader (or even a political patron) but were out of unique dissatisfaction with Abbott. That's even worse than supporting an alternative, it's like they were saying "Anyone else but this guy!!".

To add to that you can't say that there wasn't an alternative leader, all that we can say - as you I think you were implying - that there was no publicly acknowledged alternative leader prepared to challenge Abbott.

I agree with PAstavore that personal interest - that of keeping a job and political relevance - is the main factor of why a party will change leadership whilst holding govt. However, it's not just self-preservation, it's an unwillingness to commit suicide for reasons with which they do not agree. Abbott's captain's calls and the centralisation of policy decision making under the PM's Office meant that a lot of the policy failures were actually Abbott's property. Two bigguns were PPL and knights-dames/Prince Phillip, to name a few. And as I've said before the Prince Phillip call was one made by Abbott for selfish reasons that was clearly going to be unpopular at a time when he should have been in damage control mode. It was a move that suggested Abbott was leading the party in to oblivion not on what was policy made by way of consensus for the good of the nation but for reasons of Abbott's personal leanings made with no regard for party interests.

So I don't think it's just bad opinion polls that may force change, I think it's bad leadership that will force change. Abbott has dug a very deep hole and if he can't lead them out of it I feel they will elect some one else to try instead.

we can only hope. i doubt tho if a leadership change will help the Libs, but i also doubt that Labor has the balls to make anything good of the next election. same shite, different day.

Yup.

 

[pink poodle]

OK, maybe more than simply a beat-up:nod::tape2:. But beat out of proportion by the media I do believe.

No-one put their hand up at any time during this media frenzy. I am absolutely sure there is many discontented back-benchers, but there are many more that are content (at least content enough to sit on their hands presently). I agree Abbott has been pretty shithouse with many policies and is running a shambolic govt. to some degree and at times. But other than some captains calls he is not to blame alone for that. Maybe he will be gone soon, I dunno.

But why do you expect Liberals to change leaders with (seemingly) every bad opinion poll, like Labor did? Being a party leader is about more than simply opinion polls.

Shambolic...bit of an understatment. How's that budget coming along?

Is it not the case that cabinet members need to support the leader? This is how things were portrayed in the media that I saw. Where else would Abbott's replacement come from? Protect your arse and hope the outsiders carry the numbers for a spill. Then allow your supporters to convince you to run.

Big Joe must be pretty unpopular at the moment to not have been getting much media attention in the lead up to today. He did run in third last time round. He would make a great prime minister.

 

[johnny]

I'm really not sure how the loyalty thing works though as I think the spill ballot was done in secret.

 

[pink poodle]

I'm really not sure how the loyalty thing works though as I think the spill ballot was done in secret.

Not sure. I traced down an SMH article from 2009 for the last lib spill earlier today. It mentioned an unique secret ballot for the vote on emissions trading at the time. Unsure if that meant the secrecy was unique of some other aspect.

The current stuff is confusing and unclear. No doubt deliberately to fuel the wide spread politics illiteracy our nation suffers from. There is lots of talk of the requirement or obligation to be loyal etc, but does that mean its da partaaaay rulezzzz? Or just what is the best option? I couldn't imagine Julie B coming out and saying "he has to go..." And then loosing but keeping her position. If she sat in he back, Keating style, when would she get to shirt front pootin?

 

[pharmaboy]

I don't agree that at it's heart it anywhere like a shambolic govt.

Where they have failed - is in dealing with a hostile senate. Now maybe the senate really is a bunch of dickheads so ensconced in their own failures they want to make life difficult for a govt they don't quite agree with, but still, maybe a more moderate leader could work within that a little better.

There are plenty of decent policies to save money, but Aussies are first rate at whinging. We just had the Governor of the RBA speak to the cabinet in what I gather is a first to tell them how fucked the budget is. Frankly, that meeting should have had the opposition leader and treasurer in it, and maybe even that freakin moron of a greens leader.

We have to move away from this culture of entitlement and saying no to change, or bring on the Grecian ways

 

[pharmaboy]

I'm really not sure how the loyalty thing works though as I think the spill ballot was done in secret.

The way it was discussed this morning is that it's kind of secret - it's a small room and the people around you can see what you voted

So secret yes, private, no

 

[John U]

I don't agree that at it's heart it anywhere like a shambolic govt.

Where they have failed - is in dealing with a hostile senate. Now maybe the senate really is a bunch of dickheads so ensconced in their own failures they want to make life difficult for a govt they don't quite agree with, but still, maybe a more moderate leader could work within that a little better.

There are plenty of decent policies to save money, but Aussies are first rate at whinging. We just had the Governor of the RBA speak to the cabinet in what I gather is a first to tell them how fucked the budget is. Frankly, that meeting should have had the opposition leader and treasurer in it, and maybe even that freakin moron of a greens leader.

We have to move away from this culture of entitlement and saying no to change, or bring on the Grecian ways

Straight from the lnp song book. Especially the last line.

How about some decent policies to make money by getting some of it from those who can afford it. Great policies my arse. I don't even know where to start. Maybe, what about that policy to not pay any unemployment benefits for 6 months, I'll throw in you have apply for 40 jobs a month. This sort if garbage could only come from a group of dills with no idea.

The policies should be concentrating on getting some tax back from the big tax dodging internationals, cutting back on middle and upper class welfare, winding back negative gearing on property and capital gains tax discount on property.

I do agree with you on the budget front though. I'm not sure if poodle's joking when he says Hockey should be a leadership candidate. Talk about entitlement. Hockey wrote the fucking book.

 

[Dene Dweller]

I certainly agree with the age of entitlement line. Too many people for too long are getting benefits from the Federal Government and the eligibility needs to be tightened.

The Grattan Institute report release last year showed the budget has been in structural decline for the last ten years and part of the presentation by Glen and co last week to the Feds showed the decline will continue for the next ten if the status quo remains.

So that leaves us with the revenue side and the expense side. Regarding revenue I have stated in previous posts my thoughts on tax reform and that remains unchanged, we must have wholesale tax reform across the country to improve this aspect. It will likely result in paying more tax but the situation is pay more now or pay even more later. A read a good quote recently "there's a giant shit sandwich sitting in front of Australia and every one will need to take a bite".

Superannuation from high income earners should also be taxed, say anything over $100k per household taxed at a flat rate of 20%.

On the expense side there can certainly be efficiencies gained in the bloated public service (at all levels), in addition to this payments for the pension are only going to increase given the ageing population. The rules in receiving the pension need to be tightened and part of this could be to include the increment of the principal residence above the average house price for that state/region in the asset test. Currently someone living in a $2.0m house can qualify for a pension, but if that house was sold, another purchased for $500k and had $1.5m in investments the person would not qualify. The pension age should also be indexed in accordance with average life expectancy (look at the origins of the pension in this country circa 1910).

Furthermore we need to be investing in the hi-tech industry and start producing high tech goods/services in Australia, that includes more funding for the CSIRO not cutting it back. It was the CSIRO who invented wi-fi and royalties from this have been around the $500m mark. This hi-tech industry will also require education investment to develop and retain the graduates from the appropriate courses / backgrounds.

Then we need to invest in infrastructure to improve Australia's productivity and for this to be done in a transparent manner and on a true cost / benefit basis. Investing money is real estate is a non producing asset, however most Australian's don't grasp this concept. Continually rising house prices are good for the economy, aparently but maybe I'm too simple.

 

[Skydome]

I'm actually getting really tired of people complaining about the age of "Entitlements" that ended long ago, yes, there's people who abuse welfare, but the majority of people whom are on it are on it because the jobs market sucks sweaty balls and it's very challenging to get a job, it's not like it was in the 70's where you were pretty much guaranteed a job even without any experience.

 

[John U]

Agree with that Dene.

Continually rising house prices are good for the economy, aparently but maybe I'm too simple.

You just need to own a few of them and then you're set. There's your problem.



Just re-read you last line pharma. We do need to be prepared for change. I think people will accept it if it is dished out fairly and a safety net is maintained.

 

[Pastavore]

I don't agree that at it's heart it anywhere like a shambolic govt.

Where they have failed - is in dealing with a hostile senate. Now maybe the senate really is a bunch of dickheads so ensconced in their own failures they want to make life difficult for a govt they don't quite agree with, but still, maybe a more moderate leader could work within that a little better.

There are plenty of decent policies to save money, but Aussies are first rate at whinging. We just had the Governor of the RBA speak to the cabinet in what I gather is a first to tell them how fucked the budget is. Frankly, that meeting should have had the opposition leader and treasurer in it, and maybe even that freakin moron of a greens leader.

We have to move away from this culture of entitlement and saying no to change, or bring on the Grecian ways

I think the LNP have made a reasonable case for the need for structural change in the economy. What they haven't done, is provide fair and reasonable policies for getting there. Instead there is just lots and lots of conservative ideology. Instead of complaining that the senate won't pass their current budget, particularly since most of it they didn't even take to the election, they should try formulating a newer and fairer budget. If not, the next federal election will make the QLD election look like a children's picnic, with fairy bread and balloons, and maybe a jumping castle.

 

[Dene Dweller]

Agree with that Dene.


You just need to own a few of them and then you're set. There's your problem.



Just re-read you last line pharma. We do need to be prepared for change. I think people will accept it if it is dished out fairly and a safety net is maintained.

I agree with you in theory however in practice I think the Australian electorate is either too stupid or too selfish (sometimes both) and won't be able to see the bigger picture. If someone could get through to the masses then great. We've had the eceeonomy too good for too long and maybe we need a recession to wake everybody up as we haven't had one for over 20 years which is feakish to say the least.

 

[pink poodle]

Prime minister? No. He deserves more...let's make him out emperor! Emperor Hockey has a nice ring to it. Can't you just imagine him in a toga toking away on a big fat cigar?

The age of entitlement thing has been shitting me for a long time...what is there below the poverty line worth feeling entitled to? I live near a lot of housing commission flats and I'm not seeing much. Whenever I hear people talking about this I can't help but think of it as actually being selfishness and jealousy, regardless of social positioning of the parrot. I want what's coming to me, and no fucker better get in he way! Childish narrow thinking with no future focus.

The entitled misnoma is the result (as I have blah blah blahed before) of 10 years of Howard government vote buying among middle class and above voters. All he while raising revenue by cutting services and avoiding future building investment and squandering a resources boom.

I found Keating's victory speech (as posted here last week) to be a great bit of rhetoric. The voters had decided that they didn't want a 2 tiered Australia, and yet here we are in a country that has elected a bunch of people who want just that. People who took whatever they could get their hands on and manipulated it for their own gain.

 

[pink poodle]

I agree with you in theory however in practice I think the Australian electorate is either too stupid or too selfish (sometimes both) and won't be able to see the bigger picture. If someone could get through to the masses then great. We've had the eceeonomy too good for too long and maybe we need a recession to wake everybody up as we haven't had one for over 20 years which is feakish to say the least.

The stupid seems to be bread into us. All those years in school and masses of people have limited or no ability to even form ideas, ideals, perspectives, hopes or dreams (or whatever you want to call them) about their country, state, region, town...left right or somewhere in between, anywhere would be nice...as long as they think. Just a little...

 

[Calvin27]

I agree with you in theory however in practice I think the Australian electorate is either too stupid or too selfish (sometimes both) and won't be able to see the bigger picture. If someone could get through to the masses then great. We've had the eceeonomy too good for too long and maybe we need a recession to wake everybody up as we haven't had one for over 20 years which is feakish to say the least.

There are realizations coming to life though. The whole property thing was good while it lasts, but most older generations are now seeing the problems it creates - kids missing out on property, delaying having kids.

Attitudes to tax are also getting better as long as it's fair and across the board. Not much noise was made about NDIS or those flood levies. People just accept and take a bite of the crap sandwich. The real problem are policies like the 6 month unemployment benefits wait. If anything it should be you get the dole until up to 6 months.

I think the Aust population still has a long way to go, but we are getting there slowly. I think we are slowly understanding the budget issues - we are just not in a tight enough situation to make a hard decision yet. 2 more interest rate drops and when bogans can't go to bali then it will start.

 

[pharmaboy]

I'm actually getting really tired of people complaining about the age of "Entitlements" that ended long ago, yes, there's people who abuse welfare, but the majority of people whom are on it are on it because the jobs market sucks sweaty balls and it's very challenging to get a job, it's not like it was in the 70's where you were pretty much guaranteed a job even without any experience.

Want a a great example. In the last federal budget, the govt in order to save money wanted to index pensions to CPI - now this was howled down in protest.

So hang on, disability pensions et al were going to be continued as indexed to CPI in order to hold purchasing parity but this isn't good enough apparently . Apparently, they should be indexed to average wage earners so that if the workforce gets pay increases beyond CPI due to productivity increases, then so should people who in many case save never contributed towards the tax base in net manner in their lifetime ( it's probably most of disability support).

That is fucking idiotic that it's unacceptable to the community that people that don't earn and don't contribute to GDP just get given the increases when people who have jobs don't get increases without some sort of productivity rise.

Then I hear the argument about investing in sciences, yet there was a massive boost to science in the budget, and all that had to be done was for people to stop endlessly using the Medicare system as it's free and pay maybe 10% of the cost of the services they use - that's a fucking 90% discount on small amounts of money. And it wasn't going to the govt, it was going to said inductor where Australia has an advantage competitively.

There's 2 examples that were shouted down without reasoned discussion at all.

In 10 years time where will we be at $40b short each year? Still arguing, still hoping for a miraculous return of corporate profits?

 

[pink poodle]

Pharma...are you saying that disability pension receivers don't contribute to GDP? Can you let me know what they do with their money please? I doubt that they stuff it in their mattress, and pretty much all other uses would have some influence on GDP, whether that be from savings or spending...

Is earning money and paying tax the only way these people are able to contribute to their community? I would like to think not...but it appears you see them as an anchor. That's aweful open minded of you.