Ebola - The End of the World?

[Pastavore]

Now I've seen and read a lot of interviews with Doctors and Medical staff from the WHO, MSF, the CDC along with the CSIRO over the last few months and NONE of them have been anywhere near as hysterical as you appear to be on the matter. Yes, they all agree it is a growing humanitarian disaster that will only worsen if left unchecked but as mentioned earlier the rest of the world is finally stepping in and making a concerted effort to contain it. The only people I have actually seen acting with the same level of alarm as yourself are the anchors of Fox News so you'll forgive me if I appear a little bit skeptical.

Exactly. It is a growing humanitarian disaster because it is unfolding in a very poor part of the world, not because the disease is highly contagious.

 

[shake_rattle_and_ roll]

First off I've noticed that when people begin to question your level of alarm on this matter, you jump straight into insults. I've only started responding in that manner because you don't appear to be very good at them.

Now I'm not claiming that Nigeria will be Ebola free forever. It's a hub country in West Africa and it's high population and geographic location provides a strong chance of it eventually having it's own homegrown outbreak but they have had one outbreak already and that outbreak was contained -and that's according to the CDC who presumably know a thing or two on the subject.

Now I've seen and read a lot of interviews with Doctors and Medical staff from the WHO, MSF, the CDC along with the CSIRO over the last few months and NONE of them have been anywhere near as hysterical as you appear to be on the matter. Yes, they all agree it is a growing humanitarian disaster that will only worsen if left unchecked but as mentioned earlier the rest of the world is finally stepping in and making a concerted effort to contain it. The only people I have actually seen acting with the same level of alarm as yourself are the anchors of Fox News so you'll forgive me if I appear a little bit skeptical.

REALITY CHECK in 3...2...1

• Once again, there is no hysteria from me.
• At no point did I instigate or initiate a personal attack or insult on anyone in this forum
• This is a forum & not news service.
• Forums are where the views expressed are solely those of the author/troll.
• This is an "Off Topic" subject which should, while remaining true to the Rotorburn ways i.e. 'ya dick'll fall off' jokes, be able create some level of intelligent dialogue, with an exchange not only of ideas & experiences but also of any public & freely accessible information that might help inform, educate or assist in forming a position of opinion for anyone who is interested in the topic & would like to contribute. *a theme across RB
• Contributions to all forum topics are encouraged &welcomed (even those who thrive on stroking their inner troll)

THE COLD HARD FACTS:
You got called, Pint. So grow up & stop playing a victim. You responded with a flippant & factless remark, planting words & phrases such as 'hysteria' & 'end of days' then preceded to pass it off as belonging to or being the property, mindset, emotional position or opinion of someone else- in this case, you tried to make it mine. My contribution was me merely offering up a fresh 'palatable' piece of topical information to the thread with what was clearly my own informed opinion attached below it, nothing more. You then floundered (starting with your 'to give you some perspective' item) with a grossly geographical & figuratively inaccurate proposition that proposes something that is so bizarrely far from reality that it trivializes any contribution of fact or truth.

The stage where the journey gets rocky for you was the one where you bring a one dimensional "summary of evidence" (as I'm sure you'd like to think of it) as though you were having an 'oh, hey I'm feeling like I'm being expected to quantify with some sort of supporting fact' moment, that not only outlined the fundamental & dated flaws in your facts relative to your words & contribution, but it also highlighted your own geographical ego-centrism & inability to clearly think let alone see the 'bigger picture'.

Yes, I did get personal. I took exception (firstly) to your rubbish geographical & social profiling of Nigeria, as I did when you offered the same hog-wash a few weeks back on the subject regarding Africa, because while at face value West Africa & greater Africa most certainly have major, MAJOR issues, when someone in a position of respect, such as yourself, who has spent time in-country for any significant period starts casting unquantified aspersions through an internet forum which might misguide someone less educated on the topic (but seeking some kind of information- be it a dick joke), not only is it a disservice but it makes me think that you really didn't learn shit while you were there. But we all take what we feel we need from such personal experiences, don't we? By definition it was you that started down the racist & bigoted road- mistake number one that set the tone my friend. Particularly with me.

Now, the sticking point we've reached here in all of this, which you obviously need clarification on, & likewise Pastavore may benefit from, which will be the last I'll have to say to you about it. I touched on it earlier.

That moment where it got personal, was when you falsified fact & wanted to play games by trying to pass off & attach not only your own ill-informed opinion but also your own suggestions of an emotional sentiment on the topical offering ("shit house" use of phrases such as "hysteria" & "end of days") by planting them & attempting to stick the ownership of those on me, as my certified-authorship. Now, there's a wonderful & smart species of freshwater catfish in the NT which has 'learnt' & mastered the art of regurgitating it's last meal as a method of drawing in shrimp. Not so that it can eat them, but so they make ideal bait for bigger fish that might be good for trying to take a bite out of. In this case the shrimp could be Pastavore. Now what that clever little catfish often forgets, & sadly his intelligence doesn't necessarily reflect his incredible resourcefulness, is that while he indeed lives in a large flowing river with shrimp & small fish, there are actually bigger fish in the river which would gladly make a meal out of him.

Now I'm not sure what world you live in, Pint, nor where you are from as those details are completely irrelevant to me, but in life beyond the computer screens if someone publicly & in the presence of others attempted to plant the previously mentioned false concepts & opinions onto someone else in a very under-handed & manipulative way, & the unwitting subject was also (fortunately) present & offered up like the proverbial BBQ spare-rib... Naturally if that unwitting person had a shred of integrity or credibility about themselves, he'd politely excuse himself with the forked-tongue-one in tow to a quiet corner &, failing to reach an understanding by politely expressing their disapproval at the behavior, would precede to redecorate the walls so the wallpaper looked like a pair of snake-skinned boots.

The fact that the best you could come out with was stating the obvious humanitarian disaster in Africa highlights your one dimensional mindset & geographical awareness or potential of this issue. And I genuinely mean it when right now I say that I'm 100% ok with that, knowing what I know about you through your contributions here at RB. And sincerely I value your contributions to RB because it helps keep this great community spinning. But let's get one thing really, really clear- don't play games with me, Pint. I deal with people whose entire existence & MO for life is just that- game play & subversion. On a daily basis & I do it for a living. Carry on like that or make a play at me in such a manner & I will own you noon through night, 24/7, 365. We abundantly clear? Keep a lid on it- you come across as simple & bigoted when you don't.

It is you, sir, who wanted to get personal. Get your own credibility sorted before you dip your toes in to discredit someone else's.

F for Fail, Pint. F for Fail.

PS thanks for coming back with another obvious & moronic item of input, Pint, things are slow here in the office this afternoon & I've written a lot of work reports already, so being able to nip this in the bud & write about something far less dry has done wonders. And believe me, churning out an articulate response to your pissy petulance & stupidity is something I could all day, brother.

Right, that is that unpleasant bone of contention out of the way.

Apologies for anyone outside of the person/s in focus here & cluttering the thread. In the 12yrs on this site I've never been given cause take the time to articulate myself in such a fashion as this, the nearest thing to this is publicly having it out with Grip back in 04/05ish over inappropriate videos being post in the Vids Section by a handful of dickhead users.

Intelligent or fun input always encourage on RB, but don't carry on like a manipulative dick hiding behind your screen.

Peace out & happy rolling mother truckers:focus:

 

[PINT of Stella. mate!]

Bloody hell, you're making Bermshot look sane...

 

[scblack]

REALITY CHECK in 3...2...1

........stuff...........

Peace out & happy rolling mother truckers:focus:

Jesus Christ he has got through to you! You posted several hundreds of words in response to a few sentences by POSM. Way to go dude.

Are you HONESTLY going to tell us again that you are not Hysterical after posting that book sized post?

At least you helped me in knowing someone else not to take seriously.

 

[Pastavore]

REALITY CHECK in 3...2...1



Yes, I did get personal. I took exception (firstly) to your rubbish geographical & social profiling of Nigeria, as I did when you offered the same hog-wash a few weeks back on the subject regarding Africa, because while at face value West Africa & greater Africa most certainly have major, MAJOR issues, when someone in a position of respect, such as yourself, who has spent time in-country for any significant period starts casting unquantified aspersions through an internet forum which might misguide someone less educated on the topic (but seeking some kind of information- be it a dick joke), not only is it a disservice but it makes me think that you really didn't learn shit while you were there. But we all take what we feel we need from such personal experiences, don't we? By definition it was you that started down the racist & bigoted road- mistake number one that set the tone my friend. Particularly with me.

Now, the sticking point we've reached here in all of this, which you obviously need clarification on, & likewise Pastavore may benefit from, which will be the last I'll have to say to you about it. I touched on it earlier.

That moment where it got personal, was when you falsified fact & wanted to play games by trying to pass off & attach not only your own ill-informed opinion but also your own suggestions of an emotional sentiment on the topical offering ("shit house" use of phrases such as "hysteria" & "end of days") by planting them & attempting to stick the ownership of those on me, as my certified-authorship. Now, there's a wonderful & smart species of freshwater catfish in the NT which has 'learnt' & mastered the art of regurgitating it's last meal as a method of drawing in shrimp. Not so that it can eat them, but so they make ideal bait for bigger fish that might be good for trying to take a bite out of. In this case the shrimp could be Pastavore. Now what that clever little catfish often forgets, & sadly his intelligence doesn't necessarily reflect his incredible resourcefulness, is that while he indeed lives in a large flowing river with shrimp & small fish, there are actually bigger fish in the river which would gladly make a meal out of him.

Just ...........wow.

I am a shrimp. Got it.


SR&R, this is an off topic thread in a mountain bike forum, and I posted something you don't agree with. Calm down and get over it.

 

[shake_rattle_and_ roll]

Just ...........wow. I am a shrimp. Got it. SR&R, this is an off topic thread in a mountain bike forum, and I posted something you don't agree with. Calm down and get over it.

Nope, clearly missed it by a mile. Nothing to do with you disagreeing with me, at all- this isn't a 'your right, I'm wrong' scenario. Everyone should be encouraged to write & challenge, where fitting, in a fashion reflective of their position so long as you're clearly addressing the same point of the topic & you're bringing (what you'd intended/attempted it to be) an educated or informed perspective on a topic which by-in-large not a lot of people know anything about, let alone Africa- not that I'm an expert either. If that can't be done then don't even go there & stick to the humor. My civilise direction to you in the exchange previous to me genuinely speaking my mind, was one where when called on it you immediately retracted your sentiment & poor choice of words & acknowledged my objection to your statement i.e. that it is an intensely fucked up state of affairs if you're an African in Africa, yet at the same time adopted the same position of parroting a proposition that I'd never expressed. Whatever you interpret as being fact & whatever you misinterpret through your own subjective application of context (given the absence of it in all written forms), despite it clearly being an opinion offering after the supplied fact, is yours & yours alone to own. But don't parrot.

What I was saying to you was to get informed & don't be a shrimp for the catfish, because you'll invariably end up in the cross fire once out of your depth.

If the Director of the CDC, Dr Tom Frieden, publicly states (within the last week) to political & economic leaders that the situation is dire (yes, his exact words) in Africa, & that 1.4million Africans will have contracted Ebola before January 2015's end, there is most certainly cause (& I'd urge all of you) to pay some attention to the real facts out there. Unlike people with AIDS/HIV, who go on to lead relatively full lives, Ebola is a wildfire which will cause massive generational impacts on the entire region. Unlike AIDS it wipes out several generations in one hit & at an exponentially faster, more traumatic & transmittable rate than AIDS or SARS ever could.

You want to know the impacts of generational deficits on societies, education, economies, environment, politics & power? Look beyond the back fence to places like Cambodia- and that's through the removal of just a single generation.

I'm stepping away from this now, but as new stuff of any merit or value comes to light, I'll drop it by the thread for those that are interested at all. Likewise I'll also ensure to keep the menagerie of parrots at bay in future by adopting very dry report style to any contribution of fact so there can be no avenues for interpretation beyond those fact.

EDIT: missed SCBlack's question

Are you HONESTLY going to tell us again that you are not Hysterical after posting that book sized post?

At least you helped me in knowing someone else not to take seriously.

Oh snap, Blackie- now you've got me chuckling. Dude, that'd be like me asking in seriousness if you even ride given you've a post count of 6299. Type less, ride more

 

[takai]

Guys, guys, guys.. or perhaps girls too (dont want to be sexist). You have it all wrong, this whole Ebola thing is just a big false flag event. As this guy in Africa wrote

People in the Western World need to know what’s happening here in West Africa. THEY ARE LYING!!! “Ebola” as a virus does NOT Exist and is NOT “Spread”. The Red Cross has brought a disease to 4 specific countries for 4 specific reasons and it is only contracted by those who receive treatments and injections from the Red Cross. That is why Liberians and Nigerians have begun kicking the Red Cross out of their countries and reporting in the news the truth.

Now bear with me, here are some reasons:

Most people jump to “depopulation” which is no doubt always on the mind of the West when it comes to Africa. But I assure you Africa can NEVER be depopulated by killing 160 people a day when thousands are born per day. So the real reasons are much more tangible.

Reason 1: This vaccine implemented sickness being “called” Ebola was introduced into West Africa for the end goal of getting troops on the ground in Nigeria, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. If you remember America was just trying to get into Nigeria for “Boko Haram” #BULLSHIT but that fell apart when Nigerians started telling the truth. There ARE NO GIRLS MISSING. Global support fell through the floor, and a new reason was needed to get troops into Nigeria and steal the new oil reserves they have discovered.

Reason 2: Sierra Leone is the World’s Largest Supplier of Diamonds. For the past 4 months they have been on strike, refusing to provide diamonds due to horrible working conditions and slave pay. The West will not pay a fair wage for the resources because the idea is to keep these people surviving on rice bags and foreign aid so that they remain a source of cheap slave labor forever. A reason was also needed to get troops on the ground in Sierra Leone to force an end to the diamond miners strikes. This is not the first time this has been done. When miners refuse to work troops are sent in and even if they have to kill and replace them all, the only desire is to get diamonds back flowing out of the country.
Of course to launch multiple campaigns to invade these countries separately would be way too fishy. But something like “Ebola” allows access to an entire area simultaneously…

Reason 3: In addition to stealing Nigerian oil, and forcing Sierra Leone back to mining, troops have also been sent in to FORCE vaccinations (Deadly “Ebola” Poison) onto those Africans who are not foolish enough to take them willingly.

3000 troops are being sent in to make sure that this “poison” continues to spread, because again it is only spread through vaccination. As more and more news articles are released as they have been in Liberia, informing the populous of the US lies and manipulation, more and more Africans are refusing to visit the Red Cross. Troops will force these vaccinations upon the people to ensure the visible appearance of an Ebola pandemic. In addition to this they will protect the Red Cross from the Liberians and Nigerians who have been rightfully ejecting them from their countries.

Reason 4: Last but not least, the APPEARANCE of this Ebola “pandemic” (should Americans not catch on) will be used to scare the countless millions into taking an “Ebola vaccine” which in reality is the pandemic. Already they have started with stories of how it has been brought to the U.S. and has appeared in Dallas, how white doctors were cured but black infected are not being allowed to be treated, etc.

ALL that will do is make blacks STRIVE to get the vaccine, because it appears that the “cure” is being held back from blacks. They will run out in droves to get it and then there will be serious problems. With all we have seen revealed about vaccines this year you would think we learned our lesson. All I can do is hope so, Because they rely on our ignorance to complete their agendas.

Ok fine, im taking the piss. But this guy doesnt seem to be: http www theeventchronicle com/ebola/ghana-ebola-real-people-gotten-sick-got-shots-red-cross/

 

[jrewing]

Guys, guys, guys.. or perhaps girls too (dont want to be sexist). You have it all wrong, this whole Ebola thing is just a big false flag event. As this guy in Africa wrote


Now bear with me, here are some reasons:

Most people jump to “depopulation” which is no doubt always on the mind of the West when it comes to Africa. But I assure you Africa can NEVER be depopulated by killing 160 people a day when thousands are born per day. So the real reasons are much more tangible.

Reason 1: This vaccine implemented sickness being “called” Ebola was introduced into West Africa for the end goal of getting troops on the ground in Nigeria, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. If you remember America was just trying to get into Nigeria for “Boko Haram” #BULLSHIT but that fell apart when Nigerians started telling the truth. There ARE NO GIRLS MISSING. Global support fell through the floor, and a new reason was needed to get troops into Nigeria and steal the new oil reserves they have discovered.

Reason 2: Sierra Leone is the World’s Largest Supplier of Diamonds. For the past 4 months they have been on strike, refusing to provide diamonds due to horrible working conditions and slave pay. The West will not pay a fair wage for the resources because the idea is to keep these people surviving on rice bags and foreign aid so that they remain a source of cheap slave labor forever. A reason was also needed to get troops on the ground in Sierra Leone to force an end to the diamond miners strikes. This is not the first time this has been done. When miners refuse to work troops are sent in and even if they have to kill and replace them all, the only desire is to get diamonds back flowing out of the country.
Of course to launch multiple campaigns to invade these countries separately would be way too fishy. But something like “Ebola” allows access to an entire area simultaneously…

Reason 3: In addition to stealing Nigerian oil, and forcing Sierra Leone back to mining, troops have also been sent in to FORCE vaccinations (Deadly “Ebola” Poison) onto those Africans who are not foolish enough to take them willingly.

3000 troops are being sent in to make sure that this “poison” continues to spread, because again it is only spread through vaccination. As more and more news articles are released as they have been in Liberia, informing the populous of the US lies and manipulation, more and more Africans are refusing to visit the Red Cross. Troops will force these vaccinations upon the people to ensure the visible appearance of an Ebola pandemic. In addition to this they will protect the Red Cross from the Liberians and Nigerians who have been rightfully ejecting them from their countries.

Reason 4: Last but not least, the APPEARANCE of this Ebola “pandemic” (should Americans not catch on) will be used to scare the countless millions into taking an “Ebola vaccine” which in reality is the pandemic. Already they have started with stories of how it has been brought to the U.S. and has appeared in Dallas, how white doctors were cured but black infected are not being allowed to be treated, etc.

ALL that will do is make blacks STRIVE to get the vaccine, because it appears that the “cure” is being held back from blacks. They will run out in droves to get it and then there will be serious problems. With all we have seen revealed about vaccines this year you would think we learned our lesson. All I can do is hope so, Because they rely on our ignorance to complete their agendas.

Ok fine, im taking the piss. But this guy doesnt seem to be: http www theeventchronicle com/ebola/ghana-ebola-real-people-gotten-sick-got-shots-red-cross/

Can't argue with that. I'm confused how 911 ties in with it though.

 

[johnny]

Sept.11 wasn't connected, that was about gun laws in the US.

Think MH370 and and the bend-ability of the iPhone6. :tape:

 

[pink poodle]

Sept.11 wasn't connected, that was about gun laws in the US.

Think MH370 and and the bend-ability of the iPhone6. :tape:

Bullshit Johnny! This is about being served a penis vs being served a mushroom. Get that wrong when Pootin is here and we don't have enough bishops to keep us safe. We will be the next launching point for the flesh eating virus!!!

 

[Dene Dweller]

Bullshit Johnny! This is about being served a penis vs being served a mushroom. Get that wrong when Pootin is here and we don't have enough bishops to keep us safe. We will be the next launching point for the flesh eating virus!!!

The flesh eating virus will come in the form of the other Bishop, Bronwyn.

 

[Pastavore]

Nope, clearly missed it by a mile. Nothing to do with you disagreeing with me, at all- this isn't a 'your right, I'm wrong' scenario. Everyone should be encouraged to write & challenge, where fitting, in a fashion reflective of their position so long as you're clearly addressing the same point of the topic & you're bringing (what you'd intended/attempted it to be) an educated or informed perspective on a topic which by-in-large not a lot of people know anything about, let alone Africa- not that I'm an expert either. If that can't be done then don't even go there & stick to the humor. My civilise direction to you in the exchange previous to me genuinely speaking my mind, was one where when called on it you immediately retracted your sentiment & poor choice of words & acknowledged my objection to your statement i.e. that it is an intensely fucked up state of affairs if you're an African in Africa, yet at the same time adopted the same position of parroting a proposition that I'd never expressed. Whatever you interpret as being fact & whatever you misinterpret through your own subjective application of context (given the absence of it in all written forms), despite it clearly being an opinion offering after the supplied fact, is yours & yours alone to own. But don't parrot.

What I was saying to you was to get informed & don't be a shrimp for the catfish, because you'll invariably end up in the cross fire once out of your depth.

If the Director of the CDC, Dr Tom Frieden, publicly states (within the last week) to political & economic leaders that the situation is dire (yes, his exact words) in Africa, & that 1.4million Africans will have contracted Ebola before January 2015's end, there is most certainly cause (& I'd urge all of you) to pay some attention to the real facts out there. Unlike people with AIDS/HIV, who go on to lead relatively full lives, Ebola is a wildfire which will cause massive generational impacts on the entire region. Unlike AIDS it wipes out several generations in one hit & at an exponentially faster, more traumatic & transmittable rate than AIDS or SARS ever could.

You want to know the impacts of generational deficits on societies, education, economies, environment, politics & power? Look beyond the back fence to places like Cambodia- and that's through the removal of just a single generation.

I'm stepping away from this now, but as new stuff of any merit or value comes to light, I'll drop it by the thread for those that are interested at all. Likewise I'll also ensure to keep the menagerie of parrots at bay in future by adopting very dry report style to any contribution of fact so there can be no avenues for interpretation beyond those fact.

Aah, now I see. Apparently I am incapable of independently reaching the conclusion that your writing style is hysterical. I suspect that if I ran a poll on that one my view point would be vindicated.

Pull your head in and stop swinging your E-dick around.

I'm out of this.

 

[shake_rattle_and_ roll]

Whatever will get you through the night, Pastavore.

Interesting read. Highlights some of the obvious issues that many countries will potentially experience in the absence of proper funding, planning, a sound containment strategy & most important of all, training. Sentiments & happenings which have also been mirrored in the US healthcare system, even at Dallas Presbyterian where Nina Pham contracted EVD from Mr. Duncan.

In the Pham/Duncan case, as far as external monitoring is concerned, there's 76 healthcare workers (plus their families/significant others/direct contacts no doubt) which are having to be closely monitored. In Romero's it's requiring the monitoring of 81 people as outlined in the attached item from the New York Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/world/europe/spanish-nurse-ebola-health-budget-cuts.html?_r=0

 

[Knopey]

Back on topic:
"Ebola - The End of the World?"

To which the answer is "of course not, it's just that some things are tragic and suck and this is one of them".

Be good if our nutjob politicians didn't make things worse though, as they seem determined to do. (Katter most obviously, but also Abbot's paltry $ offer to MsF which they rejected as it was too insulting and they don't need a few measly $ anyway - they need actual help.)

 

[johnny]

Haven't actually read it yet, will do so later.





Tracking a Serial Killer: Could Ebola Mutate to Become More Deadly?
Why we need to terminate Ebola 2014 before the virus learns too much about us.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/...a-virus-outbreak-pandemic-zoonotic-contagion/


David Quammen

National Geographic News

Published October 15, 2014

Forty years ago, Ebola was just the name of a river. It was a small waterway of no particularly sinister character that flowed through northern Zaire, not far from the village hospital where the first known outbreak of a new viral disease had been centered. That river gave its name to the new virus, and now "Ebola" is a global byword for ugly death, misery, and fear of contagion.

The 2014 epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa is unprecedented in scope, and much attention has been focused, rightly, on how it has gotten so badly out of control.

Behind that question are three others, less obvious, more complicated, and crucial to seeing Ebola in a broader context: Where did the virus come from? Where is it going? What's next? We do well to consider these questions even as we react to the daily headlines, urge our leaders to take more deeply committed action, and support the organizations (such as Doctors Without Borders) that are fighting the epidemic so courageously in West Africa.

Where Did It Come From?

The outbreak began in early December, in a village called Meliandou, southeastern Guinea, not far from the borders with both Liberia and Sierra Leone. The first known case was a two-year-old child who died, after fever and vomiting and passing black stool, on December 6. The child's mother died a week later, then a sister and a grandmother, all with symptoms that included fever, vomiting, and diarrhea. Then, by way of caregiving visits or attendance at funerals, the outbreak spread to other villages.
Promo image for Ebola mapping graphic

It wasn't until March, three months later, that local officials alerted the Guinean Ministry of Health about these clusters of a strange, lethal disease in the countryside. By then, human-to-human transmission had started to multiply the case count. But tracing linked cases raises the question of ultimate origin. How did that first child get sick?

Ebola virus is a zoonosis, meaning an animal infection transmissible to humans. The animal in which a zoonosis lives its customary existence, discreetly, over the long term, and without causing symptoms, is called a reservoir host. The reservoir host of Ebola virus is still unknown—even after 38 years of efforts to identify it, since the original 1976 outbreak—although one or more kinds of fruit bat, including the hammer-headed bat, are suspects. There are hammer-headed bats in southeastern Guinea. It's possible that somebody killed one for food and brought it to Meliandou, where the child became infected either by direct contact with the bat or by virus passed on the hands of an adult.

Why are these facts and suppositions significant? Because they remind us that Ebola virus abides endemically in the forests of equatorial Africa. It will never be eradicated as long as those forests exist, unless the reservoir host itself is eradicated (not recommended) or cured of the viral infection (not likely possible). The virus may retire into its hiding place for years at a time, but eventually it will return, as a result of some disruptive contact by humans with the reservoir host. Then it will spill over into us again. All thinking and planning about how to defend against Ebola virus disease in the future needs to take account of that reality.

Another puzzling fact about origins is that the West Africa epidemic involves a species of ebolavirus (that's the label for the group, which includes five species) previously known only from outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and its close neighbors.

A different species has emerged in Ivory Coast, another West African country, just east of Guinea and Liberia. According to a study published in Science in late August by Stephen K. Gire of Harvard and a long list of co-authors, the virus in West Africa seems to have diverged from its lineage in Central Africa just within the past decade. It somehow leapfrogged over or around the Ivory Coast ebolavirus in order to situate itself in southeastern Guinea. That suggests the unnerving prospect that the Central African ebolavirus (the only one strictly known as Ebola virus) is expanding its range, either by infecting new populations of reservoir hosts or by migrations of those host animals.

One way or another, it has been on the move.

Where Is It Going?

The virus has also traveled within living human bodies. We know that it went from Liberia to Dallas within the late Thomas Eric Duncan, from Liberia to Nigeria by way of the late Patrick Sawyer, and from Sierra Leone to Spain by way of two Spanish missionary priests, both also now deceased, who were evacuated for treatment.

And it has been carried to Omaha, Atlanta, London, Paris, Hamburg, Frankfurt, and Oslo within infected people, mostly health and aid workers brought home to be treated.

But just as worrisome as the virus's geographic spread is its journey across the evolutionary landscape. Is it mutating in ways that could make it more dangerous to humans? Is there any chance that it might become transmissible through the air, like the flu, the SARS virus, or a common cold?

Although Ebola becoming airborne is the ultimate disease nightmare, that seems to be almost vanishingly improbable, for reasons well put in a recent article in the Washington Post by Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations. What is now a fluid-borne virus attaching itself to cells lining the circulatory system can't easily change into one that targets the tiny air sacs in the lungs.

"That's a genetic leap in the realm of science fiction," Garrett wrote.

The virus probably will not go airborne, but it could conceivably increase its Darwinian fitness in other ways, becoming more subtle and elusive.

The genetic study by Gire and his colleagues (five of whom were dead of Ebola by the time their study appeared) found 341 mutations as of late August, some of which are significant enough to change the bug's functional identity. The higher the case count in West Africa goes, the more chances for further mutations, and therefore the greater possibility that the virus might adapt somehow to become more transmissible-perhaps by becoming less pathogenic, sickening or killing its victims more slowly and thereby leaving them more time to infect others.

That's why, the Gire group wrote, we need to stop this thing everywhere as soon as possible. Future spillovers of Ebola are bound to occur, but those freshly emerged strains of the virus, direct from the reservoir host, won't contain any adaptive mutations that the West Africa strain is acquiring now.

We need to terminate Ebola 2014 before the virus learns too much about us.

What's Next?

No one knows, of course, how much worse the epidemic in West Africa will get. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a report, in late September, projecting that under the worst-case scenario there could be 1.4 million cases by early next year. The World Health Organization said Tuesday that new cases could rise to 10,000 per week by December, ten times the rate of the previous month. And the World Bank has warned that costs of the epidemic could reach $32.6 billion, which would be an economic catastrophe for the three West African countries that would compound their health catastrophes.

Will the epidemic spread more widely, igniting outbreaks in other parts of the world? We hope not. Will it turn up as additional cases, here and there, among people who have traveled from West Africa unaware, as Thomas Eric Duncan was reportedly unaware, that they were infected before boarding the airplane? Probably.

What's the best way to limit such occurrences? Rigorous screening at airports, quarantine for travelers who test positive, travel restrictions, or perhaps total bans on commercial flights arriving from Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone-these measures should help. The most important and effective thing we can do, though, is to provide all possible assistance toward ending the outbreak where it began, in West Africa.

The world won't be free of Ebola 2014 until West Africa is free of it. Even severe restrictions, barring entry to anyone traveling from West Africa, would not make it impossible for the virus to get into America, or Europe, or wherever. To understand why, consider what I call the Nairobi Tabletop Scenario.

Imagine a doctor who departs from Monrovia, the capital of Liberia, feeling fine, on a flight to Nairobi, Kenya's capital, in East Africa. In transit he begins suffering a headache-nothing terrible yet, just discomfort, but it's the first hint of Ebola. At the Nairobi airport, in a café, the Liberian doctor coughs onto a table. Five minutes later, an American businessman touches that table. He rubs his eye. He departs to Singapore and spends three days there, in good health, discussing finance for his project in Kenya. Then he flies home to Los Angeles. To the screeners at LAX, he is an American businessman arriving from Singapore, with no history of recent travel in West Africa. But he's now infected with Ebola, carrying it into the United States.

How do you defend against the Nairobi Tabletop Scenario? By doing everything possible to end the epidemic in West Africa, and thereby to ensure that the Liberian doctor is healthy when he visits Nairobi.

Our safety against the menace of killer viruses can never be an absolute safety. There are too many of them, lurking within reservoir hosts amid distant forests or closer to home-viruses such as Nipah in Bangladesh, Marburg in Uganda, Lassa in West Africa, Sin Nombre virus in the American West, all the new influenzas coming out of southeastern Asia, plus many others that haven't yet been identified and named.

And there are too many of us humans, sharing the landscape with the reservoir hosts and with one another. We are too interconnected by air travel and transport. Viruses are simple organisms but well-adapted to the modern world. This year it's Ebola, devastating and scary. Next year it will be something else.

David Quammen is a contributing writer for National Geographic whose 12 books include The Song of the Dodo, The Reluctant Mr. Darwin, and most recently Spillover, a work on the science, history, and human impacts of emerging diseases.

 

[rearviewmirror]

Cars and heart disease are much scarier in 'murica.

 

[DMan]

For now. But I think this disease has much larger ramifications. Look at how easily transmittable it is and the speed it kills. Even with all the quarantine protocols 2 nurses have succumbed to it just recently (Hopefully the 2nd survives)! Neither obesity or heart disease do that. I agree with the article. The answer is to eradicate it. A vaccine or cure is necessary before it becomes another world killer.

 

[Pastavore]

The answer is to eradicate it. A vaccine or cure is necessary before it becomes another world killer.

The article actually and correctly says it is not possible to eradicate the disease, as it is hosted by an animal (probably bat) living in the west african jungle. You can control the outbreak, but the virus will remain residing in the bat until it contacts humans again.

Yes, a vaccine or sure would be very helpful.

I am appalled at the nurses catching the disease, in a properly run infectious diseases facility, that should just not be possible. The hospital's systems have fucked up somewhere.

 

[DMan]

Absolutely. It's possible to pass it off once as human error but 2 nurses makes me think that the protocols and the way they're administered surely need looking at?! Just think of how many people that last nurse will have come into contact with before she was quarantined....Yeah, you're right that you can never eradicate it so a cure or vaccine is the only way.

 

[johnny]

This second nurse, against protocol got on a plane and traveled whilst experiencing symptoms of infection.

That, to me is astonishing and that is the kind of thing that will make "We're a developed country and we have all the facilities in place to deal with an outbreak." redundant. We've seen carers become infected when the pool of patients is absolutely miniscule. Say 15 people from the aircraft are infected, what are the chances of every health worker dealing with all of those patients following protocol perfectly, like a robot, and not getting infected and then not do stupid shit like pass through transport bottlenecks?

I'm not foretelling doom, here. I'm just saying that I'm not as confident that the US, Australia, China, France, Brazil, etc. will be the air-tight containers of the virus that is being made out. Again, I would say that the greatest risk in terms of likelihood and consequence is panic.

This could be a black swan that takes the economy back to 2010.