golden path
Banned
The thought of a Merkel pussygrab just put me off my tea....
Trump..... (The Sophistry Thread)
- Thread starter John U
- Start date
Flow-Rider
Burner
You know that the arrogant chunt is of German descent anyway.
Mr Crudley
Glock in your sock
I thought mother Trump was Scotch. Not the drink, y'hear...
----------
Sent with added typos from a tiny mobile keyboard and spellchecker that makes a mess of everything.
----------
Sent with added typos from a tiny mobile keyboard and spellchecker that makes a mess of everything.
Flow-Rider
Burner
From his grandfathers side.
pink poodle
気が狂っている男
Evicted from Germany for draft dodging, if the rumours are true.
Flow-Rider
Burner
But he's soooo American and patriotic, everyone else must be inferior to him but how ironic and disrespectful. I hope we don't see a war caused by his rudeness to other nations.
Not the kind of things nations would normally get their war on for.
DPRK is the scariest thing on the radar these days. They are making a dash for the line - as in they are so close to getting a deliverable nuke that if they are ever going to be stopped (by force) now is the time before the window is closed. That means they have to move as fast as they possibly can and stop at nothing as the only thing that will (going by risk assessments) save them is to have a nuclear deterrent.
That means that during Trump's first term we will very likely see break point with DPRK and that means Trump will have to make a call as to what to do about the NorKors. I'd say that decision has already been made; nothing and blame Obama for letting it happen, which won't be completely wrong either. However the deployment of THAAD in ROK will/is following and that unsettles the region greatly. More Aegis systems will be purchased and deployed to the region as will surveillance capabilities that threaten China's national security. This energises and already nascent arms race and simmering crisis points break out all over the Indo-Pacific region.
We've seen how Trump handles foreign relations, not particularly deftly and I don't see much confidence either. My gut says that if he is put in a position like was seen during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the EP-3 incident or any other crisis in international security I really can't see him having the bottle to pull it off. I think having to navigate high-stress and high-consequence crises constrained by time and with incomplete information he's going to fail. At that time we can only hope that the Mattises, Tillersons and others can stand up and manage their leader not to make bad situations worse.
DPRK is the scariest thing on the radar these days. They are making a dash for the line - as in they are so close to getting a deliverable nuke that if they are ever going to be stopped (by force) now is the time before the window is closed. That means they have to move as fast as they possibly can and stop at nothing as the only thing that will (going by risk assessments) save them is to have a nuclear deterrent.
That means that during Trump's first term we will very likely see break point with DPRK and that means Trump will have to make a call as to what to do about the NorKors. I'd say that decision has already been made; nothing and blame Obama for letting it happen, which won't be completely wrong either. However the deployment of THAAD in ROK will/is following and that unsettles the region greatly. More Aegis systems will be purchased and deployed to the region as will surveillance capabilities that threaten China's national security. This energises and already nascent arms race and simmering crisis points break out all over the Indo-Pacific region.
We've seen how Trump handles foreign relations, not particularly deftly and I don't see much confidence either. My gut says that if he is put in a position like was seen during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the EP-3 incident or any other crisis in international security I really can't see him having the bottle to pull it off. I think having to navigate high-stress and high-consequence crises constrained by time and with incomplete information he's going to fail. At that time we can only hope that the Mattises, Tillersons and others can stand up and manage their leader not to make bad situations worse.
Last edited:
pink poodle
気が狂っている男
I was reading recently that there is hope that China may be coming to the party for settling North Korea down. The Chinese recently gave a subtle economic rebuke of refusing additional coal imports from North Korea, claiming the annual quota had been met.
Japan were certainly concerned! How far could they push the "defence" only (in their constitution) aspect of their defence force I wonder? There was widespread concern a few years back when Japan contributed some military personnel to non-combat peace keeping and training role. But could they (as a nation) be pre-emptive in their defence?
And could they work with South Korea to stop the threat from North..? The tension mah be too strong.
Flow-Rider
Burner
Do you think that's why he is getting close to Putin, Russia and USA have the most declared nuclear warheads than any other nation.
China's control over DPRK has diminished to a very large degree over the recent decade. The North have always been suspicious of China and only turned to them to a greater degree after the Soviet Union fell. The problem for China is that they cannot allow DPRK to fall as that risks millions of refugees pouring into an already poor region, destabilising China's northeast. And it also risks seeing the Peninsula reunite under a Western-friendly leadership, bringing the US right up to its northern border. With that in mind, China is not in a position to choke DPRK of resources and Pyongyang knows it - China cannot force hardship in DPRK as China will suffer the consequences.
Japan has already been reinterpreting Article 9 of its constitution and gradually easing the pacifist constraints. That change is already well underway.
Japan and ROK already work together to some degree but they have their own WWII issues to sort out as well as territorial disagreements over Dokdo/Takeshima. They don't necessarily have to work together, they just have to work with the US and others and not work against each other.
Japan has already been reinterpreting Article 9 of its constitution and gradually easing the pacifist constraints. That change is already well underway.
Japan and ROK already work together to some degree but they have their own WWII issues to sort out as well as territorial disagreements over Dokdo/Takeshima. They don't necessarily have to work together, they just have to work with the US and others and not work against each other.
The optimist in me says that he's actually a genius and pulling a Nixon.
Nixon teamed up with China to balance against Russia. Now that China is the rising power is Trump looking to team up with Russia to balance against China?
The pessimist in me says no, however I don't have an answer as to why he is like that with Russia. It could be as simple as familiarity as Russia has allowed him and his folk to operate there ever since the end of the Cold War however China is still very, very protectionist in terms of trade and investment. I like the idea of better relations with Russia as peace is best for everyone. However that is not worth achieving at Europe's cost as values still count for something. We like human rights, we like rule of law, we like environmental protection and we like democracy. I prefer to have values count for at least something when formulating foreign policy and strategy.
Some very good posts Johnny. The pessimist/realist(?) in me thinks that Trump is still thinking like a business man as in what's in it for me and that he will he will never be a statesman's arsehole. My hope is that the real people making the real decisions will get it right when Donald's trouser turn brown,
DPRK is going to be the test.
DPRK is going to be the test.
bikeyoulongtime
Likes Dirt
meh. Trump bullshitted his way in and is a loud wet lettuce leaf. His own party will give him marching orders, and nothing he's trying to implement will get done (thank fuck).
What's he going to do? get the army out on the 3/4 of Americans who either voted against him or didn't vote at all? (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/18/american-non-voters-election-donald-trump). Fire every public servant who says 'no, this is a shit deal I'm not going to implement it?' (this is actually what public service folks are meant to do - provide sane advice to nutbags who happen to be able to bullshit their way to office. After all, policies and their effects can hang around a lot longer than governments do). Hell, not even his own military or intelligence agencies think he's got chops if you can believe any reports (Fake news, obviously!)
So far, both Trump and Turnbull are awesome examples of why businesspeeps should *not* run a country. I used to have mates that said 'we need a CEO style approach'. They've gone very quiet.
What's he going to do? get the army out on the 3/4 of Americans who either voted against him or didn't vote at all? (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/18/american-non-voters-election-donald-trump). Fire every public servant who says 'no, this is a shit deal I'm not going to implement it?' (this is actually what public service folks are meant to do - provide sane advice to nutbags who happen to be able to bullshit their way to office. After all, policies and their effects can hang around a lot longer than governments do). Hell, not even his own military or intelligence agencies think he's got chops if you can believe any reports (Fake news, obviously!)
So far, both Trump and Turnbull are awesome examples of why businesspeeps should *not* run a country. I used to have mates that said 'we need a CEO style approach'. They've gone very quiet.
Do tell who should (in your opinion)...
bikeyoulongtime
Likes Dirt
....me
srsly - people who give a shit about other people, and the planet as a living system.
Doesn't matter what previous job - you want the CEO who talks to the homeless dude at the shops and tries to figure out their story and help them out in a way that makes sense to the homeless dude, the cop who could have ticketed teenagers for smoking bongs in the skatepark but sat with them and tried to understand what circumstances led them to smoking bongs in the skatepark instead. The chippy who sees that you're struggling with a home project and whacks a few nails in for you, the truck driver who picks up hitchhikers and makes sure they get places safely, the lawyer who does pro bono cases to make sure orang-utans have places to live, the coal miner who can see that their industry has a limited future and works toward gearing themselves and their workmates for a different future career, the software engineer who gives their code away for free because it'll make people's lives easier.
In general, people with integrity, empathy and who can see further than an election cycle and their own hip pocket. Think José Mujica:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/13/uruguay-president-jose-mujica
If I could rewrite the system tomorrow, 'politician', and 'lobbyist' would cease to be a career and 'head of state' would be a nonexistent job. We'd have expert-in-field, up-to-date advisors heading public service departments, a method for calling on industry experts which don't involve exchange of cash, and rolling 'citizen jury' to decide on legislation. 'head of state' would be a person from the current citizen jury decided by consensus (or something like that). The basic rules of decision making would be - what gives us clean air, what gives us clean water, and what makes the world liveable for our grandchildren's grandchildren? With vastly less weight assigned to those who won't have to live with the impact of their decisions - which is basically the reverse of now.
Wow. that was more complete - I meant to stop at line 1...
Asininedrivel
caviar connoisseur
^^^ Ah Idealists. I like you guys. And if I wasn't such a horrible cynic I'd probably even apply to join your ranks.
What you propose can or may happen, but the events of the last year are marching us down a very dark path, with history blatantly showing where it will lead if we continue. Humanity can (and probably will) adopt some if not all of your ideas as the ugly repercussions of our current adventure stamp themselves indelibly into our collective consciousness. Currently people are just too quick to forget, and our attention spans are too short.
We can and will find a better way. It's just things are probably going to get a lot worse before they get better.
Also hoping this new FBI investigation into Trump's Russian ties provides enough evidence to kick off impeachment proceedings.
What you propose can or may happen, but the events of the last year are marching us down a very dark path, with history blatantly showing where it will lead if we continue. Humanity can (and probably will) adopt some if not all of your ideas as the ugly repercussions of our current adventure stamp themselves indelibly into our collective consciousness. Currently people are just too quick to forget, and our attention spans are too short.
We can and will find a better way. It's just things are probably going to get a lot worse before they get better.
Also hoping this new FBI investigation into Trump's Russian ties provides enough evidence to kick off impeachment proceedings.
bikeyoulongtime
Likes Dirt
It's a long game, you gotta break eggs and smash berries to make sweet, sweet pie...
In fairness Turnbull is in a shit sandwich, the conservatives in his party have him by the nuts. And that group only care about conserving their own interests and antiquated views even though all the polling shows the majority of Australia are politically centre tending centre-left atm. This idea perpetuated by the right wingers that the Australia will follow the US and head far right couldn't be further from the actual truth, with the majority of states voting in Labor govs.
The power the far right have over the liberal party atm is disgraceful and makes them look farcical. Every policy Turnbull tries on has to appease the flat earthers in the party so we end up with the mess we have now. Internal politics is more important to both parties atm.
hifiandmtb
Sphincter beanie
Turnbull chose to rise to the position, he should have had his weasel eyes open to the future.
If he had integrity, he'd die by his own sword, not sit around like a lump of shit being stabbed by all around him.
Or maybe he's now showing his true colours...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If he had integrity, he'd die by his own sword, not sit around like a lump of shit being stabbed by all around him.
Or maybe he's now showing his true colours...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Asininedrivel
caviar connoisseur
Agree with most of this. Turnbull could (or could've) been one of the greats, a true Centrist, egalitarian PM who effortlessly straddled the divides currently fissuring through our society. The raw ingredients are there, they're just being diluted and polluted by the reactionary conservative rump who are so obviously pulling the strings in the Coalition (and have evidently been given a massive confidence boost by Brexit, Trump etc.)
Disagree with States voting in Labor Governments pinpointing a majority Centre or Centre left population. If you look back over the years State Govts. tend roll in (and out) based on the opposite of whoever is running the joint nationally (witness the swathe of Liberal Governments who cruised into power across the nation when Gillard/Rudd were on the nose, and are now promptly getting booted out again). Sadly I believe there is a very strong, increasingly vocal proportion of the population here who are very much in favour of Trumpesque policies and leadership, and ignoring, dismissing or writing them off as a bunch of racists/sexists/homophobes/Islamaphobes etc. only fans their flames of discontentment.
It would help if the Left/progressives gave Identity Politics a breather. It backfired terminally on Hillary, yet they appear to have learnt nothing.