Iraq; Opponents to the war, correct again. Turkey will invade #222

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
It is very easy to jump on the Anti-American band wagon (mainly because they have made a complete balls up of it), but I still believe most of the blame from this mess should lay at the feet of the UN. They could be a LOT more effective in policing these matters before they get to stage where you have the USA having an excuse to come in and force a war to service their own economy and put a few bucks in their leaders pockets on the way.
The UN is the most impotent organisation I have witnessed... This should never have come to the point that the US even had an excuse for the invasion. FFS, balls up and get your hands dirty UN!
By blaming the UN, you are implicitly blaming the USA (along with others). The key is in the name; United Nations.

The UN is a grouping of most nations, not some sort of self contained organisation. You have UNHCR, UNICTRAL, UNSC, UNGA, etc. etc. All the security decisions, such as Iraq, Sudan, Iran etc. are made in the UN Security Council, which is made up of the 5 permenent members: USA, Russia, China, UK and France. The rest are ten seats made up of revolving members such as Australia, Japan, the Netherlands, Fiji, Gabon, Belize etc. etc.

For the "UN" to do anything like you suggest, a member country has to propose something, the other countries vote on it (article 7) and agree on an action. However, as I said in my previous posts, nations act strategically and vote not on what is right, but what is within their national interests.

Another way of saying this is that the UN is held to ransom by the national interests of each member state.

Behind the scenes, you have countries like the US, UK, China, Japan, France and so on, bribing/blackmailing other small countries to vote in favour of their interests. For further reading on the UN and the hidden diplomacy of its member states, see here http://forums.farkin.net/showthread.php?t=66580 "China and Africa" and here to read how the US bugged UN delegate offices during the pre-Iraq war diplomacy at the UN.

To think that anyone does anything out of "right and wrong" is naive and a complete misunderstanding of international relations.

Therefore, blaming the UN is implicitly blaming the USA, France, Russia, China, the UK, etc.

Im sure the U.N sent a letter to the U.S expressing their disapproval.:p

Sorry, Im not well versed in politics, but what exactly do the U.N do apart from signing off on beurocratic policies and publicly stating their opinion without action, because thats all they seem to do.
Don't have anything more substantial than the horses mouth, sorry. http://www.un.org/english/

I blame first and foremost, Saddam Hussein for being a complete dick.
Secondly, I blame the USA (Bush admin and supporters) for having the foresight of a rear view mirror.
Thirdly, I blame the insurgents themselves for being idiots.

Lastly, I blame Toodles bush Laden for being all that is wrong and evil in the world.
.
.
.
 

toodles

Wheel size expert
Lastly, I blame Toodles bush Laden for being all that is wrong and evil in the world.
You what?!? A jihad on you! JIHAD! Accuse me of being violent? I've never been so offended... I'll show you my objections by burning churches and killing some elderly nuns! How dare you call me violent!
 

dcrofty

Eats Squid
very interesting......or scary depending on your point of view.

Regardless I think the bush administration has already realised a need to change their tune and won't be going back to their old policies should they regain the balance of power.
 

jayrool

Squid
very interesting......or scary depending on your point of view.

Regardless I think the bush administration has already realised a need to change their tune and won't be going back to their old policies should they regain the balance of power.
Isn't is so obvious that Dubya is just looking to spread the blame around and involve the Democrats in the policy mess?
 

himynameischris

Cannon Fodder
the possible outcome that the americans could have achieved; rebuilding infrastructure, education, health systems etc would have been excellent. they have the money, the man power and the facilities to do that with relative ease- similar to the aussie soldiers rebuilding in indonesia after the tsunami. but, i reckon it was the execution that sucked.

they went in there with obviously hostile intent, and going in all guns blazing wasn't a great idea- especially while you are telling a nation you are helping them.. killing thousands along the way. if they had have gone in looking to co operate and just rebuild and help smaller communities gradually, they would have done something constructive for the iraqui people.

as for removing the dictatorial govenment.. that's a real can of worms. i think they should have changed it yes, but to what? history usually repeats itself, and i don't think anyone wants a brutal dictatorial leader AGAIN, like balista in cuba who the americans suppoorted his brutal regime, as he tended to their interests in trade.

good thread anyway.
chris
 

Oddjob

Merry fucking Xmas to you assholes
Did you support the invasion? Why?
No I didn't support the invasion for a number of reasons. I'll start with the general and go to the specific.
  1. I believe that a country should not invade another country unless there is a clear cassus belli or unless it is a pre-emptory punitive incursion.
  2. If America was going to remove Saddam Hussein they should have done it in the first Iraq war. To this day I'm amazed those monkeys in the white house stopped Stormin Norman from going all the way to Baghdad and removing Saddam. He had not only smashed all resistance but he also had full international support and a plan with enough troops to occupy the place properly.
  3. The intelligence that the Americans had on the WMDs was absolute rubbish. It was well known that the Americans had stuff all human intelligence resources on the ground in Iraq and that they were relying on very dodgy technical surveillance. At no point had anyone actually 'eyeballed' any WMDs.
  4. America never had a proper plan for occupation set up and never had nearly enough troops for occupying a country as large as Iraq.
  5. The preperation for the second Iraq war was woeful. They were just lucky that the Iraqis were even more woeful. If they were up against a motivated force that was dug in and had used local knowledge to fight a guerilla war in their rear areas the invasion would have ground to a bloody halt within a matter of weeks. Think Rommels retreat from Egypt as his supply lines were cut.
Do you still support the invasion? Why?
Unfortunately for everyone involved, the worst thing that can happen is that the Americans just pull out. Iraq doesn't have a police force worthy of the name and the armed forces are little better. American troops are the only thing stopping what could be a civil war to end all civil wars. So in that regard I support American troops staying. If anything I think the Americans should double the number of troops on the ground and go on an all out attack. Confiscate all weapons with a amnesty period, lock down the borders and bomb anything that doesn't cross at a checkpoint etc etc. It sounds extreme but so is the carnage that is currently taking place.

What do you think was done right?
Fantastic use of armour and air. Armour was used to flush out units which was then pummeled from the air. The Chinese or anyone else are kidding themselves if they think they can take on the US in a straightforward combined arms engagement.

What do you think was done wrong?
Everything else. If the Iraqi Army had any idea whatsoever they would have split up their infantry units and scattered them through the desert and then attacked the Americans supply lines with constant hit and run attacks. This would have created absolute chaos for the Americans especially if their ammo and fuel caches were hit.

Once the Americans took control of Iraq they disbanded the single largest stabilising force in the country: the army. This was their biggest mistake. The leadership of the army should have been changed but the command and control structure as well as the units should have been kept intact. They could have been used as a security force almost immediately and any secterian violence would have been crushed almost before it begun.

Where the hell was the occupation plan? Baghdad should have been surrounded and put into almost imediate law and order lock down. Instead the Americans go in with half a division and allow looting to occur and the entry and exit into Bagdhad of god knows who or what.

The list goes on....

Where to from here?
America is quickly running out of options. Many of the units are already into their second or third tours of duty without a break and the Americans are having a hard time recruiting. Domestically the president is a lame duck and its likely that both presidential candidates for 2008 will be preaching withdrawal so there is only a year and a bit to clean up the mess.

I think its time the gloves came off. America should pump lots of money into human intel and hustle the Isreali's and Saudi's for some help in that respect. Close the Iranian border and bomb anything that crosses the border, if the Iranians complain threaten them with W80s. Give an amnesty for the handing in of all weapons, after the amnesty anyone caught with a weapon without a permit will be arrested. Absolutely lock down baghdad, everything has to go through checkpoints. Start assassinating the heads of paramilitaries, the more gruesome the better. Setup OPs with snipers everywhere. Have delta squads ambush weapons caches. Bug mosques and follow religous leaders. You get the idea.

The idea is essentially to do what the English did in Northern Ireland but accelerated. The Americans essentially need to kill all of the martyrs and other psychos from outside of Iraq as quickly as possible by putting them under a lot of pressure. This leaves the pragmatic locals in control of the militias who are more willing to be absorbed into a new govt and army. Yes, its likely that the civilians will suffer terribly but it will only need to be for less than 12 months if done properly. After that the Americans would have to adopt a similar strategy to the British in Northern Ireland of taking a secondary role to the local police but still maintaining a presence. Hopefully this would allow a truly stable government to form in time with a battle hardened police and security force to rely on. It would also provide the Americans their means of escape from what is turning into a truly awful mistake.
 

toodles

Wheel size expert
Oddjob - I like your thinking

It seems I've been mistaken for someone who supports the US course of action here - in fact I think they did it all wrong. I support the invasion but the US fucked that up too. In fact, I won't stop supporting the invasion, I'll just wish it had been carried out with the competency the US is capable of.
 

brooko

Likes Bikes
No, there are many more than two alternatives to the issue. Secondly, why was Iraq more important than Sudan (many more people dying per month there than in Iraq pre-invasion) Burma, Zimbabwe, etc.? This is to imply that the invasion was not based on liberation; in fact, it was the non-existent WMD that was the pivotal public reason if I remember correctly....?

Yes, but this is a fate they have bought upon themselves. They could have chosen to be isolationist, yet instead they chose to become involved in Korea 1950, Vietnam in the 1960's, Somalia, Yugoslavia etc. Out of all of the US's military adventures since WW2, only Somalia was for actual humanitarian reasons. That is why at the first sign of trouble they ran, there was nothing in it for them so at the first sign of losses they pulled the plug. They stuck around in the other episodes because they were all for strategic advantage.

To think that the US or any other country, does things like this for any other reason than strategic advantage is a little naive.

With the understanding that this action was for strategic advantage rather than some altruistic "liberating" reasons, no they are not damned if they don't. If this was the case, why isn't the world crying out for the US to invade Iran, DPRK, Sudan, Burma, Zimbabwe, etc. Sure, there are voices that would like to see this happen, but the US is far from damned if they ignore them.

Sure, the country wasn't great to start with, but; Saddam and his violence was contained to the Sunni and Shia areas. The no fly zone over the north had protected the Kurds for 12 years, the largesse of Saddam's regime were a shadow of the pre-1991 days. Secondly, you disregard any information that says Iraq was better pre-war, yet you wholly and solely buy into all the stories of mass murder of his own people (such as Shia and Sunnis). If there is no real information coming in or out of the country, you cannot really believe one over the other.

There is much more to the weapons inspection situation than I think you are aware. After 1991, the US was caught red handed putting spies in the inspection team, this was cheating on the US part, not Saddam's, why should he allow them to stay? Secondly, the inspection team which was directed by the US, not the UN as it should have been WAS NOT THROWN OUT of the country the second time, they withdrew because the US started Desert Fox and bombed Baghdad. It is a common fallacy that Saddam threw them out. Australia was one of the countries helping Saddam skirt the sanctions, Australia was one of the countries supporting and involved in the invasion.

Hahahaha, come on mate, you have to pay closer attention to what's going on! The US is SCRAMBLING to find a way out of there as quick as possible right now, what do you think the whole Iraq Study Group with Baker and Hamilton was? Have a good look and you'll see that the goal posts have shifted. At first, success/pull out was based on a democratic, secular government which had full sovereignty over Iraq. Now, success/pull out is only a government that can take over the management of security.

-Gone is the pivotal "democratic government" from all presidential and prime ministerial statements....it went about 6-8 weeks ago when the civil war started to ramp up.

-Gone is the idea of Iraq retaining full sovereignty, they cannot stop the partitioning of the country now.

-Gone is the idea of secularism, they know that it will have a strong theocratic bent no matter who runs the joint.

-Gone is the fully functioning civil society, they now say that all that needs to happen is that the government of the day can field their own army and police force.

The Yanks know that they cannot win a war against an organised, trained and funded guerilla force. In short, they are not there to see the job through; they are now scrambling to find a way out that will cost them the least. They are well aware that the fight is over and it's all about saving what prestige they can. Looks to me that these other countries made the smarter strategic decision in the first place. Why should they a) have taken part in a risky venture that was only going to support American strategic interests and not their own? Why would anyone do that?! and B) help the US clean up a mess of their own making at great risk and no benefit to themselves? That would be even stupider than joining in a mission doomed for failure in the first place!

I agree. Unfortunately, the only strategy with any real chance of success is to put a further 200 000 troops on the ground.


Once again, I think the most important question, which Lopes has already raised, is; do you think saving the Iraqi people from a dictator (it pains me to even pretend that this was the pretence for the invasion) was worth destabilising the whole region, strengthening Iran/Ahmedinijad and pushing us closer to a cold war........along with creating another training ground for jihadists like Afghanistan was for the last 20 years?

Having Saddam on trial is a mere fly speck on the strategic map, it seriously means bugger all in the big scheme of things. Iraq is now in a worse state, the world is now in a worse state.

Those Iraqis had better bloody enjoy all that liberty we've given them after what it has cost both us and them!
One thing you are spot on about is they should commit 200.000 more troops and do the job properly, that way having that large a force there may even make iran think twice before they do anything stupid with israel.
 

danv

Likes Dirt
My position on Iraq has stayed the same throughout - They had no clear plan whatsoever of what to do once they invaded the country, nor did they have any clear motives to do so. They went ahead and invaded the place, and now you see the exact result of that.

They basically went into the middle east, and poked it in the eye with giant fucking stick. This was meant to reduce terrorism.



I honestly don't know what the hell can be done now. There is no order there at all, the country is in a chaotic civil war, and there are no obvious solutions whatsoever.

At this point I don't know whether the troops should stay or not. Maybe they will help, practically, to keep some sort of tabs on the carnage. Or maybe they will inflame things more. I think you have to know alot of the detail on the ground to answer that question now. (it was a pretty simple question before the invasion - don't go there). Whichever way you look at it though, stability in Iraq looks like a very very long term goal, which won't be achieved for a number of years.
 

Hamsta

Likes Bikes and Dirt
America put a man on the moon but they could not put a sniper in position to put one bullet through Saddam Hussein's head and one through his throat/spine?
 

Knight

Likes Dirt
What I want to know is....Where are the WMD's? Wasn't that the main reason for going into Iraq?

Supposedly they had eyewitnesses who saw the WMD's. That would involve actually seeing them at a specific location. So...shouldn't they have been able to find them very quickly when they went in?
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
I think its time the gloves came off. America should pump lots of money into human intel and hustle the Isreali's and Saudi's for some help in that respect. Close the Iranian border and bomb anything that crosses the border, if the Iranians complain threaten them with W80s. Give an amnesty for the handing in of all weapons, after the amnesty anyone caught with a weapon without a permit will be arrested. Absolutely lock down baghdad, everything has to go through checkpoints. Start assassinating the heads of paramilitaries, the more gruesome the better. Setup OPs with snipers everywhere. Have delta squads ambush weapons caches. Bug mosques and follow religous leaders. You get the idea.

The idea is essentially to do what the English did in Northern Ireland but accelerated. The Americans essentially need to kill all of the martyrs and other psychos from outside of Iraq as quickly as possible by putting them under a lot of pressure. This leaves the pragmatic locals in control of the militias who are more willing to be absorbed into a new govt and army. Yes, its likely that the civilians will suffer terribly but it will only need to be for less than 12 months if done properly. After that the Americans would have to adopt a similar strategy to the British in Northern Ireland of taking a secondary role to the local police but still maintaining a presence. Hopefully this would allow a truly stable government to form in time with a battle hardened police and security force to rely on. It would also provide the Americans their means of escape from what is turning into a truly awful mistake.
The sectarian issues are still a major problem. Why not create camps where large numbers of Sunni and Shiite families can be detained and 'concentrated' on helping rebuild and restructure Iraq. If food and welfare is kept to a minimum, the resulting disease and exhaustion will help keep numbers of the troublemakers down. Once these are established the coalition could then look into setting up gas chambers to further maintain 'the peace' - The gas WILL have to be imported though as I don't think Iraq's had any for the last ten years...

OASN

12 months of a fascist lockdown is NOT going to kill off a civil war. Resistance groups throughout Europe operated for years under the Nazi's. Increasing force to the levels you've described is not only extremely dangerous and more than likely doomed to fail, it is also morally abhorrent and would certainly lead to a worldwide backlash particularly from the Islamic world. Hell, if Al-Qaedda memberships are flourishing just now, imagine what they'd be like after a US led genocide!
 

ajay

^Once punched Jeff Kennett. Don't pick an e-fight
America put a man on the moon but they could not put a sniper in position to put one bullet through Saddam Hussein's head and one through his throat/spine?
No, but they could do that for JFK!:p
 

alexb618

Likes Dirt
What I want to know is....Where are the WMD's? Wasn't that the main reason for going into Iraq?
its absurd how the us govt has twisted this whole thing from 'wmd' to 'we got saddam' to 'war on terror' to what now appears to be a 'war against iraq'

kind of a sidetrack but i watched the borat film, one scene i thought was absolutely unbelieveable. he goes and sings the national anthem at some rodeo, and amongst other things he says 'may premier george bush drink the blood of every man woman and child in iraq!' - the rednecks at the rodeo were cheering along, it was hilarious.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
[*]If America was going to remove Saddam Hussein they should have done it in the first Iraq war. To this day I'm amazed those monkeys in the white house stopped Stormin Norman from going all the way to Baghdad and removing Saddam. He had not only smashed all resistance but he also had full international support and a plan with enough troops to occupy the place properly.
I've heard two reasons why they didn't. 1) that they weren't prepared for the occupation and that Iran was already becoming active in the Shia population. And probably more believable, 2) that they would have lost the support of the neighbouring Arab countries and other Muslim nations. I think the mandate they were given was only to remove Saddam from Kuwait.
[*]The intelligence that the Americans had on the WMDs was absolute rubbish. It was well known that the Americans had stuff all human intelligence resources on the ground in Iraq and that they were relying on very dodgy technical surveillance. At no point had anyone actually 'eyeballed' any WMDs.
If I remember correctly, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz didn't like the Intel he was getting from CIA etc. so he set up his own little analytical org in the Pentagon under Douglas Feith (a known Zionist) called the Counter Terrorism Evaluation Unit which looked for links between Saddam and al Qaeda (and Office of Special Plans which prepared for the post war occupation....speaks for itself.). This was also the organisation that used Ahmed Chalabi as their star recruit for info on Saddam's WMDs. Of course Chalabi had his own agenda of ousting Saddam and taking the presidency. Very little CIA or even corroborated info was used in this office and Cheney was also close to this organisation within the Pentagon.....Confirmation bias at its best.



Fantastic use of armour and air. Armour was used to flush out units which was then pummeled from the air. The Chinese or anyone else are kidding themselves if they think they can take on the US in a straightforward combined arms engagement.
I don't think there are any countries in the world that would look at this kind of warfare with the US, that is why they're all modernising their nuclear deterrent.....no first use policy means diddly sh1t in the face of defeat.

Everything else. If the Iraqi Army had any idea whatsoever they would have split up their infantry units and scattered them through the desert and then attacked the Americans supply lines with constant hit and run attacks. This would have created absolute chaos for the Americans especially if their ammo and fuel caches were hit.
I don't think this would have been possible with the Iraqi army. The generals led by fear rather than loyalty which means two things; heightened central control and command that would be lost if units were to act autonomously, second, minimal loyalty and large scale surrenders as was seen in Gulf War 1.....especially because they would have had very little equipment to carry out these roles.

Once the Americans took control of Iraq they disbanded the single largest stabilising force in the country: the army. This was their biggest mistake. The leadership of the army should have been changed but the command and control structure as well as the units should have been kept intact. They could have been used as a security force almost immediately and any secterian violence would have been crushed almost before it begun.
Agreed. there still would have been problems, but they still have these now in addition to training them from scratch.

Where the hell was the occupation plan? Baghdad should have been surrounded and put into almost imediate law and order lock down. Instead the Americans go in with half a division and allow looting to occur and the entry and exit into Bagdhad of god knows who or what.
Which indicates an agenda of strategic motivations rather than liberation or any of that bullshit. If it was liberation, they would have secured the population centers before anything else. There would have been massive food/supply lines into these areas in an effort to gain Iraqi reliance on the Americans who would have won hearts and minds by being the benevolent providers. Of course they didn't, they put their troops around government assets and oil ministries.

Unfortunately for everyone involved, the worst thing that can happen is that the Americans just pull out. Iraq doesn't have a police force worthy of the name and the armed forces are little better. American troops are the only thing stopping what could be a civil war to end all civil wars. So in that regard I support American troops staying. If anything I think the Americans should double the number of troops on the ground and go on an all out attack. Confiscate all weapons with a amnesty period, lock down the borders and bomb anything that doesn't cross at a checkpoint etc etc. It sounds extreme but so is the carnage that is currently taking place.
I think its time the gloves came off. America should pump lots of money into human intel and hustle the Isreali's and Saudi's for some help in that respect. Close the Iranian border and bomb anything that crosses the border, if the Iranians complain threaten them with W80s. Give an amnesty for the handing in of all weapons, after the amnesty anyone caught with a weapon without a permit will be arrested. Absolutely lock down baghdad, everything has to go through checkpoints. Start assassinating the heads of paramilitaries, the more gruesome the better. Setup OPs with snipers everywhere. Have delta squads ambush weapons caches. Bug mosques and follow religous leaders. You get the idea.

The idea is essentially to do what the English did in Northern Ireland but accelerated. The Americans essentially need to kill all of the martyrs and other psychos from outside of Iraq as quickly as possible by putting them under a lot of pressure. This leaves the pragmatic locals in control of the militias who are more willing to be absorbed into a new govt and army. Yes, its likely that the civilians will suffer terribly but it will only need to be for less than 12 months if done properly. After that the Americans would have to adopt a similar strategy to the British in Northern Ireland of taking a secondary role to the local police but still maintaining a presence. Hopefully this would allow a truly stable government to form in time with a battle hardened police and security force to rely on. It would also provide the Americans their means of escape from what is turning into a truly awful mistake.
The second biggest problem with that is what POSM has already said, Ireland became, and still is, a rather large thorn in the side of the English. It was a fairly inefficient policy fro the Brits and geography was more their friend than it will be for the Yanks (distance from home, size of the country, Iraq is mostly land locked and among many non-friendly states, etc.).

Secondly, as pointed out by POSM, this risks wider conflagration of the issue and a destabilising of the region as a whole. The Saudis, Syrians, Lebanese, Iranians, etc. don't want the US to succeed in running the country and are making efforts to confuse the issue already. If you allow yourself to be seen as the bogyman (even more so than Abu Ghraib and the rapes/murders have already done) you risk encouraging greater regional balancing behaviour against your efforts. It would also even further polarise the Arab/Persian/Muslim community against American/Western aims possibly creating further terrorism issues globally.
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
There seems to be a move to compare what's happening in Iraq to the troubles in Northern Ireland at the moment. Whilst both conflicts largely stem (or stemmed in the case of NI) from sectarian divides, there is still huge fundamental differences.

The conflict in Northern Ireland raged for almost 30 years, and whilst it had it's fair share of death and violence, it pales in insignificance to the widespread slaughter that has been seen in Iraq over the past two years. Bombings in Ireland were an occasional occurance, sometimes with devastating results -Omagh, Einneskillen, but most often fairly minor. Over the last 2 years in Iraq large scale bombings have been a daily occurence, so much so that the death toll has to reach 3 figures these days to make the foreign news section of the paper. Add to that the regular findings of mass graves resulting from death squads and you've got yourself a bit of a quagmire.

Another important aspect is the presence of troops. In NI the British troops were originally installed there as protection for the catholic minority. This changed over time with the rise of the Provisional IRA. Growing resentment from the catholic communities saw the British Army's percieved role change from peacekeeper to oppressor, meanwhile the protestant loyalist movement started to forge stronger links with the army. This differs from Iraq in the fact that in Iraq EVERYONE -possibly with the exception of the kurds- hates the coalition and have viewed them as foreign invaders from the outset.

As for the strategic why's, what's and where's, I don't necessarily agree with the idea that Baghdad should or could have been put under a rigourous curfew. Armies of occupation rarely have any success and given the fact that Baghdad is a city of over 7 million people not counting the populations of other hotspots such as tikrit and fallujah- The US led coalition with it's relatively small number of ground troops who have almost no knowledge of even the basics of arab culture was doomed from the outset. Toodles mentioned the US's 'usual level of competency' in waging war on foreign lands, but given such recent 'successes' as Vietnam, Lebanon and Somalia, it's little wonder the situation has gone as pear-shaped as it has.

Finally,

[ The Americans essentially need to kill all of the martyrs
I'm not picking on you Oddjob, but surely that's playing right into their hands! ;)
 
Top