Ebola - The End of the World?

pharmaboy

Eats Squid
Ebola shares the same onsets, & when your authoritative body (say, CDC) is telling you there is ABSOLUTELY nothing to worry about, & you've followed the hospital's CDC developed, trained & implemented internal protocol to the letter- why would you be concerned? Right? .
I really doubt their protocol is a problem, and I'm quite certain the nurses haven't followed the protocol to the letter. The problem is lack of understanding as to how infection spreads and what parts of the procedures are devastatingly important.

Let's say you're in a sealed gown, mask, gloves etc and have left the patient. Common sense tells you that you've got through the hard part, but the reality is, the most dangerous part is taking the protection off, washing down and making sure that no part of your undergarments or skin contact any of the outside of the protective clothing- this is no simple thing to do for those not experienced in doing it.

The only hospital matter that concerns me is that 70 odd staff had contact with the patient - this seems at first glance to be a very high number of staff and perhaps the reason the training ended up short in hindsight
 
I really doubt their protocol is a problem, and I'm quite certain the nurses haven't followed the protocol to the letter. The problem is lack of understanding as to how infection spreads and what parts of the procedures are devastatingly important.

Let's say you're in a sealed gown, mask, gloves etc and have left the patient. Common sense tells you that you've got through the hard part, but the reality is, the most dangerous part is taking the protection off, washing down and making sure that no part of your undergarments or skin contact any of the outside of the protective clothing- this is no simple thing to do for those not experienced in doing it.

The only hospital matter that concerns me is that 70 odd staff had contact with the patient - this seems at first glance to be a very high number of staff and perhaps the reason the training ended up short in hindsight
Protocol is definitely a problem. Protocol is where the buck stops, so long as the provisions of comprehensive training, procedural development & thoroughly supervised procedural process has been undertaken & applied- double over-sight procedural process etc, the works. It's all part of the protocol. Protocol defines your every action throughout the process. Whether flipping burgers at MacDonalds or in this situation. And it certainly takes trial & error, & sadly incident, for that procedural protocol to be refined reflective of the environmental demand.

As you point out, Pharma, be it scrubs or a PPPS, the process is like baking a cake. All of biggest issues aren't necessarily in the baking process itself but whether you've fuck up the ingredients at the start or you fucked up taking it out at the right time at the end, as per instruction.
 
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johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
Yo, Bermshot, why do you say you'd get banned for posting that pic ^^^^?

Serious question.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
What the fuck are you talking about?!

Stop playing the victim, dude. There's nothing wrong with that picture, it's a bunch of bush meat being cooked over a ghetto BBQ

You thought they were babies, didn't you? Babies don't have tails.
 

Bermshot

Banned
What the fuck are you talking about?!

Stop playing the victim, dude. There's nothing wrong with that picture, it's a bunch of bush meat being cooked over a ghetto BBQ

You thought they were babies, didn't you? Babies don't have tails.
Talk about anger, man, take a meditation class or two.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
No anger here at all, frustration is more like it.

Just watching you ignore critical details (like tails) and jump to outrageous conclusions (cooking babies), act the victim (if that was me I'd be banned) and then try and throw the discussion in a different direction to avoid admitting you were wrong (you have anger problems).
 

Arete

Likes Dirt
As a hypothetical, out of 100 people on the flight with one of the nurses, typically an initial conservative estimate of 1 in 10 (a ratio typically used by epidemiologist & virologist when estimating exposure rates for malaria/dengue fever/monkey-pox etc within confines or small, geographically isolated/contained communities) i.e. 10/100 passenger on the flight have had a genuine risk of exposure, typically what they will then start working off as an infection estimate, to err on the side of probable caution, is that of the virus'/disease's mortality rate as a worst case scenario. In this case mortality is now up to 70%. So, what that then translates as- potentially 7 of those 100 additional passenger will be infected. Now realistically that WON'T be the case, but based strictly on very conservative ratios, it should not be surprising to any of us if they do discover that at least one other passenger HAS been infected.
Actually, the R0 (i.e. the number of people an infected person will subsequently infect) f Ebola is typically around 2 http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/...ebov-during-the-2014-outbreak-in-west-africa/

There are a number of factors which cause the virus to have relatively small R0:
1) The virus is not tranmissable during incubation.
2) Incidental contact with small amounts of infected bodily fluids has a relatively low risk of transmission - generally it is transmitted after prolonged exposure; one of the reasons medical personnel are often the hardest hit.
3) It tends to burn through a population relatively quickly - with an epidemic dying out before pandemic spread can occur. The current outbreak is by far the furthest it has ever spread.

The current number of fatalities sits at just under 9,000, with ~5,000 of those attributable to the current outbreak.

Compare this to malaria with an R0 of ~113 and an ANNUAL fatality rate of 650,000, or rotavirus with an R0 of ~25 and an ANNUAL fatality rate of ~500,000. While ebola has horrifying symptoms, a terrifying fatality rate, and is definitely an emergent disease worth looking out for, its effects are historically and probably likely to be relatively local. Especially in the light of effective vaccines coming through the pipeline (they've been used in monkeys for some time, but due to the expense of clinical trials and small market, there hasn't been a push for human use until now) I think it's more comparable to rabies (low R0, high fatality rate, approx 55,000 fatalites per annum) than any of the classical pandemic viruses we've seen in the past.
 

Bermshot

Banned
The first to trundle forth and get their (free) monkey vaccine, be sure to report within 48hrs and tell us all how you feel.

I for one, am and will be really interested in how you trust your government and scientists to take care of you.
 

Arete

Likes Dirt
The first to trundle forth and get their (free) monkey vaccine, be sure to report within 48hrs and tell us all how you feel.
Animal trials are a pretty standard step in vaccine development... unless you're saying you're scared of all vaccines?

OK, back to the serious side. Arete, in your opinion would you consider rabies more volatile?
Not really, in a country with adequate medical facilities, regular pet vaccinations, an available human vaccination and an informed population, both cases and fatalities are low - an average of 8 cases a year in the US. That said, I'd take dying of ebola over rabies any day. I think that even if ebola became endemic in a country like the US, the fact that we are very close to a vaccine, combined with the low transmission of the virus means it could be controlled relatively well. It's really only when you have poor infrastructure, inadequate medical facilities, an uninformed population etc that something like ebola becomes a a serious killer.
 

Bermshot

Banned
Animal trials are a pretty standard step in vaccine development... unless you're saying you're scared of all vaccines?



Not really, in a country with adequate medical facilities, regular pet vaccinations, an available human vaccination and an informed population, both cases and fatalities are low - an average of 8 cases a year in the US. That said, I'd take dying of ebola over rabies any day. I think that even if ebola became endemic in a country like the US, the fact that we are very close to a vaccine, combined with the low transmission of the virus means it could be controlled relatively well. It's really only when you have poor infrastructure, inadequate medical facilities, an uninformed population etc that something like ebola becomes a a serious killer.
Not scared of vaccine, i will, if necessary, refuse because i don't trust. Without premise I presume you would, & yours?

I have to go to bed, so I'll leave one question. Are all of those countries without mobile access? Where is all the shitting and dying on Poobook? Where are real up-loads to fooltube? Find me a real one and I'll watch it.

Sorry mate, my rant continued thinking of a broad question to all.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
Again I refer you to the threat of panic.


As Ebola Fears Spread, Ohio and Texas Close Some Schools


By MANNY FERNANDEZ
OCTOBER 16, 2014
DALLAS — An Ebola-infected nurse’s air travel between Dallas and Cleveland has sent ripples of concern through at least two states, leading to school closings and voluntary isolations.

Schools in Texas and Ohio were closed on Thursday after officials learned that students and an adult had either been on the flight with the nurse, Amber Joy Vinson, or had contact with her while she was visiting the Akron area.

Both Ms. Vinson and another nurse who contracted Ebola, Nina Pham, were part of the medical team that treated an Ebola patient, Thomas Eric Duncan, at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas. Ms. Vinson traveled from Cleveland to Dallas the day before she showed symptoms of the disease.

In Akron, Ohio, officials dismissed students at the Resnik Community Learning Center at midday and said it would remain closed until Monday. In a letter to parents, the schools superintendent in Akron, David W. James, said that “a parent at the school had spent time with Ebola patient Amber Vinson when she visited the area this past weekend.”


Video | Mayor of Ohio Town on Ebola PrecautionsMayor David Kline of Tallmadge, Ohio, where the second Dallas nurse to contract Ebola spent the weekend, talks about safety precautions.
Mr. James said the student at the school had not meet with Ms. Vinson, who was transferred to Emory University Hospital in Atlanta on Wednesday night, but that the parent and the student were being isolated.

In Central Texas, the superintendent of the Belton Independent School District, south of Waco, said that a student at Sparta Elementary School and a student at North Belton Middle School had been on the same flight as Ms. Vinson on Monday.

The superintendent, Susan Kincannon, said in a statement that officials had decided to shut the two schools plus a third, the Belton Early Childhood School, so they could thoroughly clean and disinfect the schools and the buses that served them this week.

The two students were on the flight on Monday and then attended classes on Tuesday and Wednesday, the statement said. Though state and local health officials cleared the children to return to school, their parents decided to keep them home for 21 days, the maximum incubation period of the virus.


Health care specialists expressed skepticism about the closings.

“It’s not a rational decision,” said Dr. Andrew T. Pavia, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at the University of Utah. “And it’s harmful, in that it’s going to further spread misunderstanding and irrational fear.”

Dr. Paul A. Offit, the chief of infectious diseases at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, likened the response to the early days of the AIDS epidemic “when people were afraid to walk into a grocery store and pick up a piece of fruit because they didn’t know who’d touched it.”

“This isn’t flu or smallpox,” Dr. Offit said. “It’s not spread by droplet transmission. As long as nobody kissed the person on the plane, they’re safe.”

A spokesman for the C.D.C, Thomas W. Skinner, said that the agency had not advised the schools to close.

“We are not aware of any medical reason that would require them to close these schools,” Mr. Skinner said. “We are developing guidance for K-12 school officials that will hopefully help them manage situations like this one.”

On Wednesday, C.D.C. officials had emphasized that the passengers on the plane were a low-risk group. Because Ms. Vinson did not have a fever and did not have nausea or vomiting on the plane, the risk “to any around that individual on the plane would have been extremely low,” Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, the C.D.C. director, told reporters.

The Eagle Mountain-Saginaw Independent School District, in Fort Worth, did not close any schools but it announced that one family would be isolated for three weeks because a member of the household had flown to Dallas on Flight 1143. The person who was aboard the plane, the district said, works at the Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base Fort Worth, and officials said the decision to isolate the family was made in consultation with the military.

In Solon, a Cleveland suburb of about 23,000, two schools were closed on Thursday because a district employee returned to Ohio “on a different flight, but perhaps the same aircraft, as the Texas nurse with Ebola,” the district said in an email to parents.

And officials of two major health systems in Cleveland — the Cleveland Clinic and MetroHealth — said that a group of nurses had been placed on leave because they were aboard Ms. Vinson’s first flight, from Dallas to Ohio, on Friday.

“The decision to put those nurses on paid leave really has to do with decreasing anxiety,” Dr. Jennifer Hanrahan, the chairwoman of MetroHealth’s infectious disease control committee, said at a news conference. “It’s not because of any perceived risk to them or to anyone.”

Aultman Hospital in Canton, which had five nurses aboard the flight, said it would also place employees on leave. “As a further precaution, we have reviewed the assignments of those five nurses and identified the patients in their direct care,” the hospital said in a statement. “We are in the process of contacting those patients to make sure they are fully informed.”

At least seven people were in isolation in Ohio on Thursday, with most of them in Summit County, which includes Akron and is just south of Cleveland. Dr. Marguerite Erme, the medical director for Summit County Public Health, said at a news conference that those people “had some contact” with Ms. Vinson.

Dr. Erme’s announcement came a day after the Ohio Department of Health opened an Ebola-focused call center staffed by nurses and other public health officials. The state epidemiologist, Dr. Mary DiOrio, said that the 24-hour hotline “will provide timely, accurate, credible information about Ebola and the state’s response.”

In Belton, the decision to shut the three schools kept roughly 1,800 children at home Thursday.

Ms. Kincannon, the superintendent, said two students who are siblings were accompanied by their parents aboard the Frontier flight from Cleveland to Dallas on Monday. Federal privacy laws prohibit her from releasing any identifying information about them, she said. The mother and father were also considered at risk, she said.

“We’ve been in contact with their parents and everyone is doing fine,” Ms. Kincannon said.

As of midday Thursday, the district had not made a decision on when the schools would be reopened, she said.

Questions continued to be raised about why, and how, Ms. Vinson was allowed to travel on either leg of her trip.

Ms. Vinson and other health care workers had been under a so-called self-monitoring regimen, and she was checking her temperature twice a day on her own.

Ms. Vinson flew from Dallas to Cleveland on Friday, because those doing self-monitoring have no restrictions on their movements or travel. Public health experts have criticized the C.D.C. for not putting all of the hospital workers who had contact with Mr. Duncan under intensive monitoring, as opposed to the more loosely followed self-monitoring regimen.

On Sunday, while Ms. Vinson was still in Ohio, Ms. Pham was confirmed to have the disease. Health officials said Thursday that Ms. Pham was being flown to the National Institutes of Health outside Washington from.

Following Ms. Pham’s diagnosis last week, C.D.C. officials switched Ms. Vinson’s status from self-monitoring to actual monitoring by officials. Dr. Frieden initially said that because Ms. Vinson was at that point being monitored, she should not have flown on the flight back to Dallas on Monday night. Although her temperature did not meet the fever threshold of 100.4, Ms. Vinson reported to health officials that her temperature at the time she traveled was 99.5.

But hours after Dr. Frieden spoke, it became clear that the disease centers had been aware that she was going to board the plane and allowed her to do so.

A federal health official said Ms. Vinson called the C.D.C. before boarding the plane and reported having the slightly elevated temperature of 99.5. Because it was thought the protective gear she wore while treating the Ebola patient would have kept her safe, and because her temperature did not exceed the fever threshold, she fell into a category not covered by C.D.C. guidelines and was not forbidden from boarding the plane.

“I don’t think we actually said she could fly, but they didn’t tell her she couldn’t fly,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly. He said the error was on the part of the disease centers, not the nurse.

“She called us,” he said. “I really think this one is on us.”

Jack Healy and David Montgomery contributed reporting from Dallas, Donald McNeil and Jad Mouawad from New York, and Alan Blinder from Atlanta
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

Many, many Scotches
The first to trundle forth and get their (free) monkey vaccine, be sure to report within 48hrs and tell us all how you feel.

I for one, am and will be really interested in how you trust your government and scientists to take care of you.
Why do I get the feeling that this wouldn't be the first time you got to act as a guinea pig for experimental drugs?

RE: the 'panic' developing in the states. Panic levels are dictated by the media and the media are certainly lapping it up for now. However I think they'll be forced to wind their necks in soon enough. Its all well and good for increasing ratings in the short term but as soon people start staying home from work for irrational reasons and the economy begins to grind to a halt, 'big business' -whose advertising dollars fund said media- will step in and start dictating a calmer approach.

Case in point: Fox News and their climate change stance.
 

pink poodle

気が狂っている男
POSM don't you know? Vaccines are the way that our governments control us...The vaccines keep us thinking their way. Or so I have been hearing from people in the know.

Rattle Roller, you seem pretty switched on. Will my tin foil suit be able to protect me from Ebola? Or will it need a cellophane coating?
 
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