without making any judgments on anybody ... I see these 2 lines drive the majority of the market. Gamble and without real knowledge.
Let’s say 80:20 rule. Punters to more knowledgeable pundits ... where Knowledgeable isn’t necessarily related to investments or investment analytics, or investment acumen
Using 80:20 again ... of the above knowledgeable portion ... 80% are more IT focused ... again not investment focused ... prolly a big chunk are criminally motivated. Guessing ... see oil pipeline hackers.
so that leaves approx 5% of the starting population, making money off the 95% ... that’s a pretty good position to be in and likely where all the whales are. How these 5% make decisions I have no idea and I believe nobody knows including the 5%.
Me ... I see Crypto = Tulips
Likely end the same way. there are no fundamentals, it’s all about trend and speed of news
pure gambling IMO.
Pretty much bang on the money although I'd put your ratios close to a 99.9:0.1 ratio (or worse) as the system is so chaotic that nobody, not the best IT minds, nor the savviest financial gurus can truly predict which way it's going to twist and turn, other than it ending in a massive crash at some point in the near future.
And boy will it be a big crash! This is what gets me. Can nobody see the folly in more and more people throwing greater and greater sums of money at an intangible entity that's supposed purpose is to act as something stable enough to be used as currency? The El Salvador thing should really be the canary in the coal mine.
Now that you've got a Government (albeit an impoverished, unstable one) getting involved, it projects an air of legitimacy that encourages more people to jump on the bandwagon. This then ties up more money chasing these invisible nerd-tokens that pushes the prices up even higher. Soon FOMO starts getting to people who normally would have a bit more sense and the pyramid rises ever higher. Maybe more governments get involved.
Maybe (now, I'm just going off on a mad tangent here but there's a reason) but just maybe you might happen to be a short-statured Eastern European gangster-autocrat with a penchant for shirtless photography and an army of hackers at your disposal and you decide that this is too good an opportunity to pass up so you tie your own currency to it knowing that 1: it's a great way to launder the billions you've already stolen from your people. 2: You're in a great position to manipulate a shadowy digital financial market to your benefit and 3: The eventual collapse will hurt your enemies far worse than it will yourself.
Because there will be a collapse. There is always a collapse.
1929, Black Monday, The GFC are the three biggies I can think of off the top of my head and they all share the same themes - People chasing get-rich-quick schemes gambling that they won't be the ones caught out. -
We were lucky in the last one as Australian financial regulation stopped our banks from gambling everything away but this time there is no form of control at all. There are no financial regulators at play anywhere so it is destined to end in absolute calamity, and there is no point thinking, 'well, I'm smart. I know when to get out early' because even if you do, you will still have played your part in creating worldwide financial chaos.
You might only gamble away what you might consider to be your piss-drinking money but that's also along with all your Crypto-Bro WhatsApp Group mates' contributions which are enough to drive the stakes up enough so that the poor sap who has just bought your doge-coins may have his house on it. At some point dodgy accountants ARE (if they're not already) going to be gambling the company funds on it and it may just be the company that you work for.
The GFC was little over a decade ago FFS. Have we got such short memories?
*The reason is I just wanted to call Putin a short-arse with a penchant for shirtless photography but I wouldn't bet against something like that happening - not that it would need to to cause a crash.