Crypto predictions, dead or not.

Would you buy any crypto

  • Yes

    Votes: 8 30.8%
  • No

    Votes: 12 46.2%
  • Go back to south Australia

    Votes: 6 23.1%

  • Total voters
    26

safreek

Vealcake
Now let me start by saying that I am making no predictions, I am just seeing people's thoughts on it and it's future. To be honest I am surprised this hasn't been done before.

After making a decision to have a gamble on crypto I set a date to start.
Started selling bikes and parts, stopped smoking and all that to raise a sensible chunk to gamble, yeah the start of my gamble sucked as it timed with ultra high prices which dropped massively within a couple of weeks.

Although I know nothing about this online currency I have made a purchase with bitcoin before so it obviously works.

So back to my question, how do you see things going in the near and distant future with it.
When things dropped did you panic and sell or hold on. My belief is that if you gamble with bit or the other suspects that you may as well have it written off in your mind and ride it out, it can always go up but if you sell, well your horse has just lost with no dividend.

So let's start with you, why will it fail or flourish
 

fjohn860

Crypto curious
Don't have any crypto, but have always been curious about it. Definitely interested to hear what the brains trust have to say on the matter.

Sent from my INE-LX2 using Tapatalk
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

One Scotch & Joke
I fucking hate crypto with a passion! Hopefully there'll be legislation in the future to outlaw it but we'll see.

It's not just because it's an endless source of tedious conversations in the smoko shack, (although that plays a small part) it's the fact that in the midst of a global climate emergency we've got fuckwits needlessly burning zillions of kilojoules of energy to fuel a completely pointless pyramid scheme.
Even the hackneyed bleating that "but crypto mining can be done using renewables" is a load of bollocks as it's still a massive waste of computational power that could be better used in number crunching for things like curing cancer, unlocking the secrets of the universe or finally cracking nuclear fusion so we can stop fucking suffocating ourselves with fossil fuels and being forced to build massive wind farms everywhere.

It also ruined a perfectly good Doge meme
 

rockmoose

Likes Bikes and Dirt
The nature of crypto's thus far has been farcical. Just a heap of suckers jumping on a get rich quick bandwagon.

But I do believe crypto's are the future. The ability of a currency to make all transactions safe and transparent with blockchain will save a lot of underprivileged from exploitation.

The rules and regulations for cryptocurrency just need to be tightened to stop the pointless, ponzi scam that most are trading on.

Sent from my SM-G780F using Tapatalk
 

K.C.

Likes Bikes
noob question:
how secure are those trading platform, can i buy some coins/token here and there and park it for 5 years?
not sure how all these wallet things work
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

One Scotch & Joke
But I do believe crypto's are the future. The ability of a currency to make all transactions safe and transparent with blockchain will save a lot of underprivileged from exploitation.
Public opinion is already starting to sway against crypto regarding the environmental factors - look a Tesla's recent u-turn for example- and the ability of a crypto-currency to make all transactions safe and transparent is a load of meaningless waffle.

As a form of currency it's incredible volatility renders it completely useless when it comes to the payment of goods. There's nothing inherently 'safe' about anonymous transactions - people can still get ripped off and robbed - even more so when you're dealing with unregulated markets. As for the saving the underprivileged from exploitation? How's a malnourished family in the middle of the Sahel supposed to pay for a bag of rice if the grocer only accepts transactions via smartphone app?

We already have the convenience of fast, instantaneous electronic bank transfers using actual currencies whose relative stabilities are what's keeping us all from rioting in the streets over cans of tuna. These are controlled by financial institutions with long histories and very deep pockets. 21st Century Tulip-Mania is not about to upend that any time soon.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
At this point it's basically a fun punt.

Crypto has its advantages - I have no problem with a direct relationship between market actors and removing third parties like banks and the govt from a transaction. But crypto also has its disadvantages - dark money can move freely, dodging international sanctions, funding terrorism, and law breaking activities.

I don't buy into the argument that you, @PINT of Stella. mate! are making, that it takes up valuable computational resources. Because that suggests that those life-improving pursuits are starved of computational resources due to mining, and I haven't seen anything to suggest that (which is not to deny it, just that I haven't seen people make that claim), and there's obviously no direct line suggesting less mining = more cancer number crunching, etc.

I think that it's too early on in the piece to argue whether crypto is a fad or whether it's here to stay. My gut says that it's still going to be around in some form after we're all gone.
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

One Scotch & Joke
At this point it's basically a fun punt.

Crypto has its advantages - I have no problem with a direct relationship between market actors and removing third parties like banks and the govt from a transaction. But crypto also has its disadvantages - dark money can move freely, dodging international sanctions, funding terrorism, and law breaking activities.

I don't buy into the argument that you, @PINT of Stella. mate! are making, that it takes up valuable computational resources. Because that suggests that those life-improving pursuits are starved of computational resources due to mining, and I haven't seen anything to suggest that (which is not to deny it, just that I haven't seen people make that claim), and there's obviously no direct line suggesting less mining = more cancer number crunching, etc.

I think that it's too early on in the piece to argue whether crypto is a fad or whether it's here to stay. My gut says that it's still going to be around in some form after we're all gone.
Here's an interesting article on the state of affairs regarding Crypto mining in Iceland:
Cryptocurrency mining: is Iceland getting too dependent on it? | Sifted

90% of the power consumption used by Icelandic data-centres is for crypto-mining. True, there's the argument that it's sourced from geo-thermal stations which means that there shouldn't be any environmental impact however that drives competition with other mining centres such as China who aren't so quite so 'green'

And for what? You've said it yourself. There are serious disadvantages to unregulated crypto-currencies just like there are serious disadvantages to traditional currencies and they are pretty much the same disadvantages (terrorist funding, money laundering etc.) alongside some serious additional environmental factors. There'll be no removing of third-parties from financial transactions either as a big factor in economics - even at the most basic level- is convenience and there'll always be somebody offering to grease the wheels (or ensuring that you have to grease their wheels)

So ultimately, crypto-currencies are bringing nothing new to the table other than an energy-intensive means of conducting financial transactions that will only serve to widen the gap between the technologically wealthy and those less fortunate.

On the other hand, we've got access to more computational power than we could ever possibly have imagined even just half a century ago but it's not like we only require a finite amount. Climate change modelling, research into nuclear fusion, solid-state battery research and enhancement, research into cancers, prediction and modelling of viral outbreaks are just the big-ticket items I can think of off the top of my head but the list is literally endless.
In a better world Iceland could still make money from it's data centres using them for more noble pursuits but when we have an unregulated Get-Rich-Quick free-for-all on our hands, nothing else gets a look-in.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
There'll be no removing of third-parties from financial transactions either as a big factor in economics - even at the most basic level- is convenience and there'll always be somebody offering to grease the wheels (or ensuring that you have to grease their wheels)

So ultimately, crypto-currencies are bringing nothing new to the table other than an energy-intensive means of conducting financial transactions that will only serve to widen the gap between the technologically wealthy and those less fortunate.

On the other hand, we've got access to more computational power than we could ever possibly have imagined even just half a century ago but it's not like we only require a finite amount. Climate change modelling, research into nuclear fusion, solid-state battery research and enhancement, research into cancers, prediction and modelling of viral outbreaks are just the big-ticket items I can think of off the top of my head but the list is literally endless.
In a better world Iceland could still make money from it's data centres using them for more noble pursuits but when we have an unregulated Get-Rich-Quick free-for-all on our hands, nothing else gets a look-in.
To the first point, that's not accurate. crypto allows point to point sales without the involvement of banks or the govt (hence avoiding detection). The only third party is the miner but they have no say in the transaction nor can they actively intervene or observe. This is the whole point or crypto in the first place.

To the second point, nothing you've said suggests that if people weren't mining crypto that the computational power (or energy) would be used for life-improving pursuits. One thing doesn't equal the other. Ending crypto wouldn't magically divert those resources to bettering life and I have yet to see the argument that crypto is taking resources away from finding cures for cancer, etc. It seems your complaint is about the way society conducts itself, not the existence of crypto.
 

moorey

I choo choo chose 29
Crypto is a fucking blight on society. The data processing, therefore power it consumes alone should make EVERYONE walk away from it.
Just saying.
 

droenn

Eats Squid
Crypto isn't just bitcoin though, its all moved on a bit in the last few years. I like some aspects of the technology and its interesting reading the use cases and how it could be adopted. Here's my novice understanding of it, let me know if anything not quite right:

1st gen - Bitcoin - the original blockchain implementation of decentralised finance. Uses a proof of work consensus protocol to maintain the network and produce new blocks. This is done through mining which is essentially computers solving tough computational problems, and then been rewarded to add new blocks, and paid in the bitcoin currency as an incentive. Its has been a revolutionary way to distribute an immutable ledger across the globe and get away from centralised systems which can be controlled and manipulated by the states they reside in. Its PoW mechanism is inherently wasteful and inefficient in terms of power usage, and production of mining farms etc. Bitcoin is like a digital gold - mostly a store of value, but can be used as a currency, though network costs make that intangible at the moment.

2nd gen - Ethereum - builds on bitcoin by becoming a platform for a range of decentralised applications and smart contracts, allowing for agreements etc to be stored on the block chain. This has huge potential to change the way we do business, ownership of goods and services etc. I think the NSW ATARs were signed on Ethereum for example to demonstrate proof of grades linked to identity. Ethereum uses PoW, but is migrating to proof of stake, which is way more efficient and scalable. PoS allows for all holders of the currency to stake their coins to maintain the network, and new blocks are awarded through more of a lottery process to staked nodes, than winning computational problems. This is being retrofitted so is a bit of a mess, but will get there eventually. All the NFT nonsense is pretty much on this network at the moment. NFTs are actually a really nice technology, but have gone stupid with artists etc trying to cash in and people buying not really knowing what they are doing. Also major issues with the fees for using this network, they skyrocket sometimes.

3rd gen including native Proof of Stake networks - there are a few newer crypto networks that are built on proof of stake and are inherently way more energy efficient, scalable, and have a lot of promise. None are at the size or acceptance of bitcoin or ethereum yet, so remains to be seen how they will work out. There are also newer implementations of PoW that are more efficient (PoW still a really robust way to secure a decentralized network). And there are projects that link different networks together and link existing financial networks to crypto etc etc. It has exploded. There is also an entire use case of tapping into the mobile phone networks in sub-Saharan Africa (just picking up on what @PINT of Stella. mate! said - mobile phone usage is actually huge throughout that region, payments etc already go through the phone network on cheap phones with basic protocols, doesn't have to be smart phones) to make that all more efficient and secure. Will be interesting to see how that goes, and in other emerging economies with young populations.

Worth also mentioning coins like Tether - a "stable coin" where the value is pegged to the USD (some others are pegged to the Euro, yuan etc). This allows for a direct 1:1 representation of fiat currency as a crypto asset, allowing you to move money around more easily and contribute to projects etc anywhere in the world without needing to deal with the issues of moving traditional currency around.

And then there are the memecoins. Doge the main one, but so many others. Just don't. They offer nothing new and are just attempts to get rich through pump n dumps etc. Actually most of crypto is shit. And thats incredible to think about when there are so many good projects at the core. Its typically either some worthless coin being inflated by hype, or various other scams to trick you out of yours. Its also a wild west, there are no security nets, if you screw up (and there are so many ways to do this), theres no getting it back.
 

teK--

Eats Squid
It is the mindset of "gambling" and "taking a punt" that usually results in people getting rekt, unless they are incredibly lucky and ride the wave up and sell before it goes back down.

Do own research and treat it as an investment, don't get shaken by the volatility and think long term. Long term holders who stay in the top 10 cryptos have generally been ahead in the long term when you stay 3-5 years.

Unless you have the stomach and time to day trade, stay away from the super speculative cryptos which are not even in the top 100. For a crypto to last and have value long term it has to do something, have adoption, and constant innovation. Many cryptos have one two attributes, but not all three.

The argument about the environmental impact is moot now considering a lot of mining farms are set up where electricity is cheap (using renewable energy). A lot of proof of work cryptos (eg. Bitcoin) will be replaced by proof of stake type cryptos (Cardano, and also Ethereum in future versions). The latter type are a LOT more energy efficient.

When the market is low, is THE time to buy. That goes for all investing and crypto is no exception.
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

One Scotch & Joke
To the first point, that's not accurate. crypto allows point to point sales without the involvement of banks or the govt (hence avoiding detection). The only third party is the miner but they have no say in the transaction nor can they actively intervene or observe. This is the whole point or crypto in the first place.
Do you know what else allows point-point sales without the involvement of banks or the Government? Cash.
Whether it's fresh notes in the hand or freshly laundered billions wrapped up in investment portfolios and squirreled away in places such as Panama or the Cayman Islands, people have managed fine with that for centuries. Crypto brings nothing new to the table.

Secondly, crypto technology is evolving and mutating at such a rapid rate that it is impossible for the average person to keep up therefore in order to ensure that financial transactions can go ahead without one or both parties suspecting they've been ripped off, an independent 3rd party will have to be employed.
The very existence of crypto currencies and their secure storage and transfer is a result of technical knowledge and resources that is out of the reach to 99.999% of us - much like existing modern-day financial markets. All you're doing is transferring power from banks to tech gurus. as for keeping the Government out of it? They'll still be able to wet their beak regardless

To the second point, nothing you've said suggests that if people weren't mining crypto that the computational power (or energy) would be used for life-improving pursuits. One thing doesn't equal the other. Ending crypto wouldn't magically divert those resources to bettering life and I have yet to see the argument that crypto is taking resources away from finding cures for cancer, etc. It seems your complaint is about the way society conducts itself, not the existence of crypto.
Basic economics does. Let's say you're setting up a big server farm in Iceland and you've got a choice of two customers. One is a company like Tokamak Energy who are a leading researcher into nuclear fusion. The other is a hedge fund looking into investing in the crypto boom. The second company has deeper pockets so it's a no brainer. Hence why Iceland's server farms are pivoting to crypto.
I'm not saying that the server farms were 100% engaged in work for the betterment of mankind, but the market at least allowed for it.
 

teK--

Eats Squid
Public opinion is already starting to sway against crypto regarding the environmental factors - look a Tesla's recent u-turn for example- and the ability of a crypto-currency to make all transactions safe and transparent is a load of meaningless waffle.

As a form of currency it's incredible volatility renders it completely useless when it comes to the payment of goods. There's nothing inherently 'safe' about anonymous transactions - people can still get ripped off and robbed - even more so when you're dealing with unregulated markets. As for the saving the underprivileged from exploitation? How's a malnourished family in the middle of the Sahel supposed to pay for a bag of rice if the grocer only accepts transactions via smartphone app?

We already have the convenience of fast, instantaneous electronic bank transfers using actual currencies whose relative stabilities are what's keeping us all from rioting in the streets over cans of tuna. These are controlled by financial institutions with long histories and very deep pockets. 21st Century Tulip-Mania is not about to upend that any time soon.
The federal reserves and their constant manipulation of interest rates, "quantitative easing" (printing money), manipulating the formula used to calculate CPI each year, intentionally devaluing currency to increase export market... are all reasons why we need cryptocurrencies.

For people in rich westernised countries we may not see the urgency at the moment whilst things are still rosey, but when you look at countries who have already had hyper inflation I can see the attraction for them.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
Do you know what else allows point-point sales without the involvement of banks or the Government? Cash.
Whether it's fresh notes in the hand or freshly laundered billions wrapped up in investment portfolios and squirreled away in places such as Panama or the Cayman Islands, people have managed fine with that for centuries. Crypto brings nothing new to the table.
Except for the fact that investment portfolios and whatnot in Panama involves banks and governments.

Saying that crypto brings nothing new to dodging scruitinty is like saying people have always busted sanctions and terrorists have always moved money so crypto brings no new problems there either.

Basic economics does. Let's say you're setting up a big server farm in Iceland and you've got a choice of two customers. One is a company like Tokamak Energy who are a leading researcher into nuclear fusion. The other is a hedge fund looking into investing in the crypto boom. The second company has deeper pockets so it's a no brainer. Hence why Iceland's server farms are pivoting to crypto.
I'm not saying that the server farms were 100% engaged in work for the betterment of mankind, but the market at least allowed for it.
Your logic suggests that the server farm is being set up looking for a client and then offered the choice of the hedge fund or Tokamak. Pretty confident in the position that this is now how the business process is working here.
 

teK--

Eats Squid
Do you know what else allows point-point sales without the involvement of banks or the Government? Cash.
Whether it's fresh notes in the hand or freshly laundered billions wrapped up in investment portfolios and squirreled away in places such as Panama or the Cayman Islands, people have managed fine with that for centuries. Crypto brings nothing new to the table.

Secondly, crypto technology is evolving and mutating at such a rapid rate that it is impossible for the average person to keep up therefore in order to ensure that financial transactions can go ahead without one or both parties suspecting they've been ripped off, an independent 3rd party will have to be employed.
The very existence of crypto currencies and their secure storage and transfer is a result of technical knowledge and resources that is out of the reach to 99.999% of us - much like existing modern-day financial markets. All you're doing is transferring power from banks to tech gurus. as for keeping the Government out of it? They'll still be able to wet their beak regardless
You have a point, but crypto is still young. It has been around for what... 10 years? Compared to cash or silver coins or seashells? A few tens of thousand years.

You can get eftpos cards that link directly to Bitcoin and Ethereum wallets now. Paypal are also onboard. It is a sign of what will come in future and make it accessible for the everyday person.
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

One Scotch & Joke
The federal reserves and their constant manipulation of interest rates, "quantitative easing" (printing money), manipulating the formula used to calculate CPI each year, intentionally devaluing currency to increase export market... are all reasons why we need cryptocurrencies.

For people in rich westernised countries we may not see the urgency at the moment whilst things are still rosey, but when you look at countries who have already had hyper inflation I can see the attraction for them.
And there will be absolutely no change to that whatsoever. The manipulation of financial markets for the betterment of the powers that be has been going on since the days of Ancient Rome. The ability to somehow print ones own money isn't going to change that.
Crypto Currencies as they currently are cannot possibly last. They are too volatile and the status quo is too powerful.
Don't get me wrong. I know that governments and large financial institutions will cherry-pick the aspects of them that they like and they'll no doubt contribute to the continual evolvement of the whole concept of money - much like cheque-books or EFTPOS - but the day when the US Federal reserve goes 'Fuck it we're done with the $, we're going Doge!' is never going to come!
 
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