Refreshinglygood
Likes Bikes and Dirt
single pivot will never die. There are some riders out there that want a susser bike that is easy to maintain, works, and doesn't require a few hours set up.
The Future Of Mountain Bikes
- Thread starter From.Out.Of.Nowhere
- Start date
IMHO, they're a shadow of their former selves and I wish they were right up at the top again. Perhaps I'm being too nostalgic...
hmm i think you've got a fair point. They're doing alot of OEM stuff now i guess. Prehaps they might get that shake up thats needed, when i think about it their stuck in the mid hi end market. High end people over look them and the lower end cant afford them..
and singlepivot wont die aslong as theres people out there like me who want a simple playful bike. I find the VPP etc feeling dead until you hit something big, great for racing etc but wheres that playful vibe?
From.Out.Of.Nowhere
Likes Dirt
Shimano have a patent for hydraulic shifting so it's fair to think that they are exploring the possibilities.
My opinion is that hydraulic actuation is more likely to appear with gearboxes and/or planetary gears where clutches and brake bands are a necessity. There needs to be demand from the market and I think most of us are pretty happy with the current gear shifting. When hydraulics arrive, it will be attached to something revolutionary.
I doubt ther will be drastic change in the next ten years, but the currently exotic materials will become mainstream as technology allows for cheaper production costs. Its a hobby for most of us and cost and simplicity are important, how much has the MTB sport grown since dirtbikes doubled in price and complexity? Plenty of us changed over and none have gone back, why would you?
Solid tyres (carbon, alloy, rubber filled) I think are unlikely. In a sport where the gram is king there is nothing lighter than air. I'm thinking Kevlar weaves in the cross ply for light and strong sidewalls that will keep tubeless popular. Carbon hubs, Ti spokes lacing to magnesium rims if new alloys improve its properties.
Titanium and Magnesium will be the new frame metals, light, rigid and strong. Alloy is here for a while (where flex is needed like in rims) but CrMo will go and Alloy will be the new entry level material. Ceramic bearings will become common fitment, and I'm hoping for a jet pack for getting up the bloody rock ledges that are thus far beyond my skill level. Or the hover bike!
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I read the '04 thread and everyone was like "oh, gearboxes, definitely."
And yet here people are, again, tipping for the gearboxes.
Its around already, theres the rohloff, and I'm sure if they really wanted they could make a version (think they alread have tbh) for rugged offroad use.
Market bias and weight is stopping people from wanting them.
I think carbon will be in more frames, and there will be much cheaper entry-level duallies.
And yet here people are, again, tipping for the gearboxes.
Its around already, theres the rohloff, and I'm sure if they really wanted they could make a version (think they alread have tbh) for rugged offroad use.
Market bias and weight is stopping people from wanting them.
I think carbon will be in more frames, and there will be much cheaper entry-level duallies.
Yeah bang on there. I neglected to mention that i doubted hydraulic would be needed for our current drive trains. Once you get more complex things like clutches and planetary gears that need considerably more force to operate hydraulics w derailier ill be in for sure. Well pointed out.
downhiller_1
Likes Bikes and Dirt
taken from 2004... its so true... good readremember that this is only 5 years.
I think that GBox will be in, and will be cheap enough for the average person to buy.
Duallies will all be able to pedal, including DH bikes so we can go up hills too.
Hardtails will hardly be needed for use.
Bikes will all be 20% lighter.
Super Monster T's will be phased out, because everyone knows we dont need em.
The large bike companies will have taken over 99% of the market, thus eliminating small companies in it for the profit.
I will be this massive bike whore with like 80k worth of bikes, all wanky and pimped out to the max.
I will be a major part of the bike industry (i dont know how yet).
MTB will be 30% larger, and the adverage person will be able to afford a good quality bike.
Forks will be computerised for the pro's, like the old cannondale forks and forks will generally be smarter (lockout coming upto stuff etc).
Oz-Freerider will become pro.
There will be indestructable wheelsets.
More Ti frames around.
Carbon wont be wanky anymore.
Mangenese will be 'the shit'
Pro riders will get paid over 1million a year.
4X will get massive.
DH will be better and more accessable.
There will be special shuttle cars that are automated.
More MTB parks in the world.
I will think of more later. :twisted:
i think you are right, dh is slowly becoming more competitive so riders are looking for something to help give them an edge over other riders.
im not saying that riders didnt win a shit load of races on an orange back in the day, but they arent winning as many now.
I think that is worng (please correct me if iam wrong), the single pivot that he was talking about was something like an orange. there is a difference between an orange and the commencal dh
the commencal is linkage activated (not sure if that is the correct terminology), it is much like a turner dhr. yes it is a single pivot but since it has the shock is compressed by the use of linkage it allows for fine tuning of leverage ratios, pedal feedback etc etc.. during the development stage. i think we will see alot more of these bike.
holdenutes_93
Likes Dirt
Too be honest I think the world of MTB riding has pretty much reached its climax with hydraulic brakes, carbon fibre components, titanium and etc. So the only changes I could see in the future would be weight related because if we begin accommodating technologies such as electronic shifting and automatic shifting this will just prove to become unreliable. Because imagine getting a fault during your XC race and you were trying to power up a steep incline now that would put you up 3/4 of the way up shit creek and all the way up shit creek if you were using cleats, which I am sure most professionals use.
Firstly (and I dont want to sound condescending here) but at your age you haven't exactly seen how far a sport can be taken once it becomes popular. MTB is growing rapidly and the market will dicatate that for new money to be spent something new needs to be developed. New materials and new methods in manufacturing will open up possibilities that were never viable before, technology continuosly evolves (ask any engineer or scientist). Remeber anything is possible, it just has to be made financially viable in order to become mainstream. The bigger the market the more money in R&D, and our sport is growing rapidly and will continue to do so. Our sport is profitable and environmentally friendly, in a climate focused world that will only increase. Soon enough a big corporation like Honda could get involved, even if for nothing more than to offset carbon credits.
Secondly, "unreliable" is a very subjective and misleading word. An unreliable process can become reliable with a single design or component change. My first Holden ute had electric lights and wipers, my new one is electronic everything from front to rear. And which one is more reliable? Not the old one. Electronics are far more robust now that 10yrs ago, but we wont see them or automation for a while yet. ABS on a MTB in 5 yrs perhaps.
Thirdly, its not like cleats take your feet prisoner. I dont use them, the guys I ride with (XC verging on AM) do and swear by them. Changing gears on a steep incline is a not good idea anyway, the drive train is loaded up and momentum is too precious to throw away with a gear change. Imagine an automatic system that could sense wheel spin and perhaps slip a clutch in the gearbox or sqeeze a brake to help regain traction. The technology exists in motor bikes, it just has to become cheap and light enough for MTB.
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So in the XC/AM world of MTB what is there left in the way of future developments (sorry, I'm not into DH so no comments in that regard)?
We now have carbon fibre dual suspension XC bikes that are very comparable to XC HTs in weight (ie Scott Spark) and have suspension travel that is midway between XC & AM.
The best forks now all feature dual air chamber 'springs', with travel ranging from 80mm to 130mm. Rear shocks are available to match the maximum fork travel. Lightweight and infinitely adjustable travel, depending on air pressure.
Derailleurs and shifters are incorporating more 'carbon' technology in the weight vs strength pursuit. Wheels have gone to tubeless to reduce unsprung weight / rotating mass.
So what 'major' developments lie ahead? It is difficullt to see gear boxes taking over from derailleurs in the XC world. The lightweight & relative simplicity of the derailleur system would still be in its favour.
Similarly with shifting and braking systems. What advantage would a hydraulic / air operated shifting system have over a well set up derailleur system as currently used? With a good hydraulic disc brake system (ie. XT / XTR) you can feel through brake lever modulation when brake lockup is immiment, so why would you need ABS. IMO ABS in cars is only to protect the 'innocent' from their own accidents, if they knew anything about driving a car then ABS would be irrelevant.
I believe that the very rapid increase in MTB development seen in recent years will not continue. There will still be incremental improvements in certain areas but this could well be restricted by the effects of the global credit crisis in the immediate future.
We now have carbon fibre dual suspension XC bikes that are very comparable to XC HTs in weight (ie Scott Spark) and have suspension travel that is midway between XC & AM.
The best forks now all feature dual air chamber 'springs', with travel ranging from 80mm to 130mm. Rear shocks are available to match the maximum fork travel. Lightweight and infinitely adjustable travel, depending on air pressure.
Derailleurs and shifters are incorporating more 'carbon' technology in the weight vs strength pursuit. Wheels have gone to tubeless to reduce unsprung weight / rotating mass.
So what 'major' developments lie ahead? It is difficullt to see gear boxes taking over from derailleurs in the XC world. The lightweight & relative simplicity of the derailleur system would still be in its favour.
Similarly with shifting and braking systems. What advantage would a hydraulic / air operated shifting system have over a well set up derailleur system as currently used? With a good hydraulic disc brake system (ie. XT / XTR) you can feel through brake lever modulation when brake lockup is immiment, so why would you need ABS. IMO ABS in cars is only to protect the 'innocent' from their own accidents, if they knew anything about driving a car then ABS would be irrelevant.
I believe that the very rapid increase in MTB development seen in recent years will not continue. There will still be incremental improvements in certain areas but this could well be restricted by the effects of the global credit crisis in the immediate future.
downhiller_1
Likes Bikes and Dirt
things that i think will happen in five years
ti will be hand in hand with carbon
riding sigle crown 6 inch bikes will win big races
gearboxes will still be prototypes for 5 years
a major company will colapse
there will be ti rims for xc
a new suspension company will have a big hit like 'BOS'
fixes will become really cool
mad huck bikes will come back in
slopestyle will become bigger than downhill
helmets will become cheaper and better
GPS systems for bikes
lots of dowhill tracks will close down due to heratige listing
25 spoke will replace 36 wheels
xc rider will go back to v-brakes
carbon disc's for brakes
more six pots
ti will be hand in hand with carbon
riding sigle crown 6 inch bikes will win big races
gearboxes will still be prototypes for 5 years
a major company will colapse
there will be ti rims for xc
a new suspension company will have a big hit like 'BOS'
fixes will become really cool
mad huck bikes will come back in
slopestyle will become bigger than downhill
helmets will become cheaper and better
GPS systems for bikes
lots of dowhill tracks will close down due to heratige listing
25 spoke will replace 36 wheels
xc rider will go back to v-brakes
carbon disc's for brakes
more six pots
Agreed, and there are minimal benefits to any change to the current method of drivetrain actuation. Hydraulics, pnuematics, electronics are a design generation away yet. They wont arrive until there's a fundamental change in the system and that change probably only exists in the mind of an engineering student like Dave Camp (whose been mentioned on this forum before).
http://www.littermag.com/techno/dcspecial/dcspecial.html
There are smart people out there and in time something new will appear, but until then I think the improvements will be limited to things like producing a Carbon frames for under $3k (insert affordable price for you and me) and generally making elite accessories mainstream.
Not a fan of tubeles???
how do you feel about electricity or penicillin?
Dug
Likes Dirt
Yeah fall by the wayside like TV internet and the horse less carrage I recon.....Not a fan of tubeles???
Like all other things if you can come upwith the next big thing you will be rich , all you got to do is find it.. If I had it I would not be telling you guys.... No Offence..Well not untill after a trip to the patents office
What ever it is it will be fun to watch and ride
But all in all i'd say lighter and more pointy
Oh yeah! and for those who doubt electronic shifting having ridden Di2 Dura Ace all I can say is it will change Mountain Bike riding for the better it shifts amazingly fast/smooth, there are no concerns in battery life or charging duration (unless you ride 23.5 hours a day) and "frequency crossover" does not exist,
Imagine the current Saint groupset on your DH or even All mountain bike with fully sealed internal frame wiring!!!!!!!!! never have to clean/change cables again.
Imagine the current Saint groupset on your DH or even All mountain bike with fully sealed internal frame wiring!!!!!!!!! never have to clean/change cables again.