Russia Vs. America; Here we go again kids!

Dales Cannon

The Olden Dazed
Staff member
If they were going to do a false flag to galvanise their citizens, they'd attack something far less important to their military than a huge amount of fuel. They'd attack something more important to the population like a symbolic target or the population itself.

But let's say they did use this to galvanise support from the population, what then? Are they going to try and take over the capital and install their own government? Are they going to start indiscriminately shelling cities and killing everyone? Are they going to start executing civilians in the street? Are they going to threaten the world with nuclear war?

They're already doing all of these things and they've failed to achieve their goals. The Russians are getting their arses handed to them - the LAST thing the Kremlin needs is a supercharged population demanding revenge which Putin can't deliver. There's zero chance that this was false flag, the target alone would suggest that, the strategic environment confirms it, IMO.
Totally agree, Putin's war is not going in a direction where having the general populace scream for blood is an advantage.
 

Asininedrivel

caviar connoisseur
But to what end? Russia is bleeding blood and treasure hand over fist. If Ukraine becomes a bleeding ulcer for them, what does Russia gain?

The best thing that can happen for Putin now is the Russian army to leave Ukraine in one piece without mass desertions and the conscript system breaking down, Ukraine to remain nuetral, and for the west to lift sanctions. There is no good that can come from Russia drawing out the conflict. They have no hope of conquering and holding any major cities and it's unlikely that the economic pain will stop until they reach a stable peace. This may include Ukraine dictating that Russia leave the Donbas and Crimea.
I reckon Russia will still push for a partition. They're haemorrhaging in the North and West, but have made solid progress in the South and have turned Mariupol into another Grozny / Aleppo. They no longer have the power to take Kyiv (if they've really sustained 15,000 casualties that's 10% of their total invasion force either injured or dead. Mind boggling). But if they can hang onto Donbas and the other one plus some additional territory they can leave and bullshit their way into ensuring those who believe Putin think it was all a great idea.
 

Oddjob

Can hench anywhere any time
I reckon Russia will still push for a partition. They're haemorrhaging in the North and West, but have made solid progress in the South and have turned Mariupol into another Grozny / Aleppo. They no longer have the power to take Kyiv (if they've really sustained 15,000 casualties that's 10% of their total invasion force either injured or dead. Mind boggling). But if they can hang onto Donbas and the other one plus some additional territory they can leave and bullshit their way into ensuring those who believe Putin think it was all a great idea.
But what happens if Ukraine says fuck that and keeps funneling western arms into Russian conscripts?

The Russian army almost fell apart in Chechnya. If Ukraine decides to turn itself into Chechnya, the mothers of Russia will storm the Kremlin.

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The Duckmeister

Has stumpy thumbs, Speciaized are so weird
Here's an historical twist.... Half-watching an interview doco with Mikhail Gorbachev, who pretty much disappeared from public life following the breakup of USSR..... The three major proponents & signatories to the dissolution of USSR in 1991 were Russia, Belarus (then known as Byelorussia) and Ukraine. It's well apparent that Pootin is a delusional shitbag, but to suggest that Ukraine is a rebellious separationist is fucking absurd Russia co-proposed the split!!!

Following on from that, remember that Pootin is also using Belarus - the other separatist signatory as a stepping stone/co-aggressor into Ukraine....
 
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johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
But what happens if Ukraine says fuck that and keeps funneling western arms into Russian conscripts?

The Russian army almost fell apart in Chechnya. If Ukraine decides to turn itself into Chechnya, the mothers of Russia will storm the Kremlin.

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Yep, and I think that's why the attack in Belgorod (actually the second attack east of the border) is important. If Russia tries to keep the east (and maybe part of the coast - they can't take Odessa, that much is obvious now), not only are they back to the same position they were before the invasion, but how do they intend on doing that? What's the deterrent for Ukraine to accept that as an outcome? What's Kyiv got to be afraid of, invasion? All Russia has left after this is nuclear attack.

I think a big part of the reasoning for Russia to have pulled back from Kyiv, etc. is because for them to have won this war they'd have to give it everything they've got. Their military is in such bad repair and Putin can no longer trust anything he hears from FSB/SVR/GRU, he has to assume that the whole national security architecture is fucked. So they either throw all their resources at Ukraine and leave the Kurils, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdneistra, maybe even Vladivostok (look up who Beijing thinks Vladivostok belongs to!) completely vulnerable, or, even worse, they prove to the world that they are vulnerable to anyone who wants a piece.

Putin is in full on damage control. He realises that no only is he not as strong as he thought, but that he's actually weak and can no longer even trust his own agencies. So, how the fuck, with that being obvious, is he going to hold on to Eastern Ukraine (without using nukes)? What has Kyiv got to lose by throwing everything at the Russian's and attacking across the boarder - and you know that the Americans, British, Swedes, Finns, Czechs, Polish, etc. will be giving them a packet of info to assist.

These massacres of civilians in Bucha and elsewhere are going to hurt Moscow. Going to be harder to keep the money flowing from Germany and for China to hold on with diplomatic cover. Things are tough in Moscow right now. The chance of Putin going the way of Romanian dictators past is higher than it's ever been.
 

Oddjob

Can hench anywhere any time
Yep, and I think that's why the attack in Belgorod (actually the second attack east of the border) is important. If Russia tries to keep the east (and maybe part of the coast - they can't take Odessa, that much is obvious now), not only are they back to the same position they were before the invasion, but how do they intend on doing that? What's the deterrent for Ukraine to accept that as an outcome? What's Kyiv got to be afraid of, invasion? All Russia has left after this is nuclear attack.

I think a big part of the reasoning for Russia to have pulled back from Kyiv, etc. is because for them to have won this war they'd have to give it everything they've got. Their military is in such bad repair and Putin can no longer trust anything he hears from FSB/SVR/GRU, he has to assume that the whole national security architecture is fucked. So they either throw all their resources at Ukraine and leave the Kurils, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdneistra, maybe even Vladivostok (look up who Beijing thinks Vladivostok belongs to!) completely vulnerable, or, even worse, they prove to the world that they are vulnerable to anyone who wants a piece.

Putin is in full on damage control. He realises that no only is he not as strong as he thought, but that he's actually weak and can no longer even trust his own agencies. So, how the fuck, with that being obvious, is he going to hold on to Eastern Ukraine (without using nukes)? What has Kyiv got to lose by throwing everything at the Russian's and attacking across the boarder - and you know that the Americans, British, Swedes, Finns, Czechs, Polish, etc. will be giving them a packet of info to assist.

These massacres of civilians in Bucha and elsewhere are going to hurt Moscow. Going to be harder to keep the money flowing from Germany and for China to hold on with diplomatic cover. Things are tough in Moscow right now. The chance of Putin going the way of Romanian dictators past is higher than it's ever been.
The nuclear deterrent seems a bit flimsy to me as well.

If Putin uses a tactical nuke, all bets are off. A cruise missile heading for Poland looks a lot like a cruise missile heading for Kyiv. Moving a strategic missile out of it's depot, or popping the hatch on a missile sub would be just as bad.

America has always posited a first strike stance in order to maintain the deterrent umbrella over NATO and other allies. The US also have a sub 2 min launch window, something that was discussed at length when people were worried that Trump had lost his marbles.

It's been pretty well known since the 80s that the US tails every single Russian sub leaving port. And the rumours are the S 300, S 400 and S 500 system still has trouble locking onto B-2 bombers.

Putin could find that the Kremlin would be receiving a bunker busting nuke soon after giving the order.





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Asininedrivel

caviar connoisseur
But what happens if Ukraine says fuck that and keeps funneling western arms into Russian conscripts?

The Russian army almost fell apart in Chechnya. If Ukraine decides to turn itself into Chechnya, the mothers of Russia will storm the Kremlin.
Yeah totally, but it'll be much harder for the Ukrainians to push out an invading army that just bogs down, reinforces its supply lines and refuses to leave than one that keeps driving T-72s into convenient NLAW ambushes. Forcing the Ukrainians into an active offensive to dislodge Russians will be much more difficult for the resistance, even with ample funding from the west. If the Russians can hold most of what they've taken for a few months, they'll probably be able to force some ceding of territory and promote the whole thing as a "victory"

(I hope I'm wrong about all of this btw)
 

Sky_Collapsed

did the rEseaRch
I don't really know, TBH. Wondering that myself. Possible that it was the act of some entrepreneurial pilots or comanders, but unlikely.
Personally I think that Ukraine might think it could bring up reprisal attacks from Russia so it's strategically the best option to deny responsibility for the attacks and keep everyone second guessing.

Obviously Russia is going to blame Ukraine regardless so there's, imo, no point in Ukraine going "Yeah we done it"

In relation to your comments about a false flag Russia would do some weird ass bombing on Saint Basil's Cathedral.
 

ForkinGreat

Random Krishna
Personally I think that Ukraine might think it could bring up reprisal attacks from Russia so it's strategically the best option to deny responsibility for the attacks and keep everyone second guessing.

Obviously Russia is going to blame Ukraine regardless so there's, imo, no point in Ukraine going "Yeah we done it"

In relation to your comments about a false flag Russia would do some weird ass bombing on Saint Basil's Cathedral.
I don't see a false flag op where russian agents blow up st Basil's as galvanising support for the war. if it leaked who did it, that's game over for the regime for sure, IMO.
In any case, it would portray the russian regime as being weak and incompetant that they couldn't prevent a "terrorist attack" on an iconic church that represents their national religion, that also happens to be right next to the Kremlin.
 

Sky_Collapsed

did the rEseaRch
I don't see a false flag op where russian agents blow up st Basil's as galvanising support for the war. if it leaked who did it, that's game over for the regime for sure, IMO.
Invoking godwin's law but ole hitler burnt down the starg in order to take control of the country, and given how bonkers Putin has gone something like that or doing the cathedral isn't far fetched.

In any case, it would portray the russian regime as being weak and incompetant that they couldn't prevent a "terrorist attack" on an iconic church that represents their national religion, that also happens to be right next to the Kremlin.
Russian government would spin it to expand their surveillance programs both domestically and internationally.
 

ForkinGreat

Random Krishna
Invoking godwin's law but ole hitler burnt down the starg in order to take control of the country, and given how bonkers Putin has gone something like that or doing the cathedral isn't far fetched.



Russian government would spin it to expand their surveillance programs both domestically and internationally.
poo-tin/shit-can and minions already have control of the country. I doubt the regime would need a public reason to expand domestic and international surveillance. they would just get on with it, IMO.
 
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Freediver

Likes Bikes and Dirt
I hope there is a lot of Russians tried for war crimes. Any officer responsible for troops that rape needs to be tried. If their responsible for troops that rape children then fuck the trial unless I get to be judge and and can order death by kicking to the balls while something way too big is shoved up their coit.
On another note, I've been calling Putin Shitcan now for a couple of weeks and it's slowly catching on but not quick enough. Can we please not use his real name anymore out of disrespect.
 

Haakon

Call me Ken, whoreken
Have watched a few of these videos, she makes some quite cute and interesting little insights into life in Vladivostok. Not sure she will be making many more for a while…

 

Sky_Collapsed

did the rEseaRch
problem with assasination is we don't know who will replace ole vlad.

the replacement could be 10 times worse, or it could be 10 times better, it's a pretty big gamble.
 
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