Flow-Rider
Burner
Media are just hyping things up ATM, it will be people that just got into the market or have borrowed huge amounts that will feel it. The average loan for owner occupier in Qld is about 520K, a bit more serious in NSW with 800K.
A wise man once said "It's not a race".Question Time
If other countries keep raising their rates why wont AUS reflect what is happening in other countries too and keep rising for the rest of the year? Surely we are all following a similar trajectory?
What are the ramifications if we dont raise and others do?
For example NZ started raising Oct last year and is at 2.5% now.
USA started raising in Mar and has hit 2.5% now.
But Aus has only just hit 1.85%.
Have a look at what happened in Turkey for the extreme inflation, not solely the cause of inflation from not increasing interest rates though, the European war has some responsibility there.Question Time
If other countries keep raising their rates why wont AUS reflect what is happening in other countries too and keep rising for the rest of the year? Surely we are all following a similar trajectory?
What are the ramifications if we dont raise and others do?
For example NZ started raising Oct last year and is at 2.5% now.
USA started raising in Mar and has hit 2.5% now.
But Aus has only just hit 1.85%.
A wise man once said "It's not a race".
My understanding is it would make the dollar rise when oversees demand for loans increases which makes exports uncompetative / worth less while money leaves the country to go where it can earn more.Question Time
If other countries keep raising their rates why wont AUS reflect what is happening in other countries too and keep rising for the rest of the year? Surely we are all following a similar trajectory?
What are the ramifications if we dont raise and others do?
For example NZ started raising Oct last year and is at 2.5% now.
USA started raising in Mar and has hit 2.5% now.
But Aus has only just hit 1.85%.
Just 50bpswhat's there to add at this point?
I don't buy the exports are less competitive narrative. I mean within reason, but most of our exports are solid because they have relatively inelastic demand.My understanding is it would make the dollar rise when oversees demand for loans increases which makes exports uncompetative / worth less while money leaves the country to go where it can earn more.
Don't assume that all these economies are the same with the same inflationary pressures. At a macro level all seems similar, but when you get to to the granular level there are material differences.Question Time
If other countries keep raising their rates why wont AUS reflect what is happening in other countries too and keep rising for the rest of the year? Surely we are all following a similar trajectory?
What are the ramifications if we dont raise and others do?
For example NZ started raising Oct last year and is at 2.5% now.
USA started raising in Mar and has hit 2.5% now.
But Aus has only just hit 1.85%.
I think you're a little behind (about 8-12 months) on china's property development crisis. Property development accounted for ~30% of china's GDP. Since a while ago their biggest developers have been been going bust with sky high debt and credit to fuel the industry has been clamped down on by the CCP causing a bit of a shitstorm locally and globally.China buids and we are good, if they don't we are stuffed.
And once we back the USA to the hilt over Pelosi's visit, well, get ready for more china sanctions.Interesting times ahead, material shortages due to covid and the war certainly didn't help many economies.
if you had to choose between slowly phased in pain, or massive pain at once, you'd take the former.And once we back the USA to the hilt over Pelosi's visit, well, get ready for more china sanctions.
you have to apply that thinking retrospectively too. Ie no phone, computer or other electronics for you otherwise you're a pussyI'm already going out of my way to make all my personal purchases exclude anything form China as an experiment to see if it can be achieved
How many products in Australia are made from Chinese machinery or have internal parts made there? Even in the mining game, they use Chinese steel for the structures.you have to apply that thinking retrospectively too. Ie no phone, computer or other electronics for you otherwise you're a pussy
But in all seriousness, how will you tell if components of what you want to buy were manufactured in china or not if the item youre buying is not manufactured in china? or you just gonna go half arsed at it and look only at the main label?