Nerfonomics

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
So one should hold out buying a house atm hey?
Nope. If you can afford one, it's worth getting into the market regardless.

Trying to predict the bottom is impossible and you will be in competition. At that point you're more likley to overpay or miss out completely. When the market turns, the uptick will be swift.

Finding a place, sorting finance etc takes time, doing so in a rising market makes it harder.

Even if you slightly overpay right now, it's a buyers market. Lots of choice, lots of room for negotiation on price.

Just don't over extend and it will be a good long term investment regardless of what the market is today.
 

mas2

Likes Bikes and Dirt
Nope. If you can afford one, it's worth getting into the market regardless.

Trying to predict the bottom is impossible and you will be in competition. At that point you're more likley to overpay or miss out completely. When the market turns, the uptick will be swift.
Sorry I don't understand why you think someone should buy now?
To me it seems likely that interest rates will go up more, it doesn't look like wages are going up, it looks more likely that unemployment will go up, the cost of everything including houses has already risen significantly over the last few years, things seem pretty unstable overseas with likely recessions, and there's even a war going on. Again, to me, it feels more like we have peaked/plateaued and are just ready to slide rather than at a stage where we are "trying to predict the bottom".
Do you think it is possible that housing prices could go up more anytime soon? The only thing I think could shift things slightly was if the interest rates dropped again and even then I can't see much demand or fomo around any more. I will note though that I was horribly wrong predicting both house prices and bike shops would fare poorly in a global pandemic.
Thoughts?
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
Sorry I don't understand why you think someone should buy now?
To me it seems likely that interest rates will go up more, it doesn't look like wages are going up, it looks more likely that unemployment will go up, the cost of everything including houses has already risen significantly over the last few years, things seem pretty unstable overseas with likely recessions, and there's even a war going on. Again, to me, it feels more like we have peaked/plateaued and are just ready to slide rather than at a stage where we are "trying to predict the bottom".
Do you think it is possible that housing prices could go up more anytime soon? The only thing I think could shift things slightly was if the interest rates dropped again and even then I can't see much demand or fomo around any more. I will note though that I was horribly wrong predicting both house prices and bike shops would fare poorly in a global pandemic.
Thoughts?
Prices of houses are generally on a downhill spiral ATM, it's only the start.



1664967171770.png

1664967774589.png

 
Last edited:

pink poodle

気が狂っている男
Sorry I don't understand why you think someone should buy now?
To me it seems likely that interest rates will go up more, it doesn't look like wages are going up, it looks more likely that unemployment will go up, the cost of everything including houses has already risen significantly over the last few years, things seem pretty unstable overseas with likely recessions, and there's even a war going on. Again, to me, it feels more like we have peaked/plateaued and are just ready to slide rather than at a stage where we are "trying to predict the bottom".
Do you think it is possible that housing prices could go up more anytime soon? The only thing I think could shift things slightly was if the interest rates dropped again and even then I can't see much demand or fomo around any more. I will note though that I was horribly wrong predicting both house prices and bike shops would fare poorly in a global pandemic.
Thoughts?
I intend to have myself in a state of readiness, yesterday is always a good time to buy.

I may be wrong, but I suspect that the rental market is very responsive to increased interest rates. So why not buy and pay your own mortgage rather than the landlord's?
 

indica

Serial flasher
To me it seems likely that interest rates will go up more, it doesn't look like wages are going up, it looks more likely that unemployment will go up,
I think for somewhere to live there is never a bad time to buy. Sure rates will go up but if you give yourself space then it will be okay.
Where I work we have had a 12.5% payrise, and there are at leeast 300 people at the site I work at, as for unemployment - we cannot keep up and there are endless overtimes available.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Sorry I don't understand why you think someone should buy now?
To me it seems likely that interest rates will go up more, it doesn't look like wages are going up, it looks more likely that unemployment will go up, the cost of everything including houses has already risen significantly over the last few years, things seem pretty unstable overseas with likely recessions, and there's even a war going on. Again, to me, it feels more like we have peaked/plateaued and are just ready to slide rather than at a stage where we are "trying to predict the bottom".
Do you think it is possible that housing prices could go up more anytime soon? The only thing I think could shift things slightly was if the interest rates dropped again and even then I can't see much demand or fomo around any more. I will note though that I was horribly wrong predicting both house prices and bike shops would fare poorly in a global pandemic.
Thoughts?
I thought I explained fairly clearly why you'd want to buy now.

The first caveat was "if you can afford it" the second caveat was "don't overextend" the third caveat was "long term".

House prices are going down in aggregate, but they aren't all equally going down and some are even defying the trend and going up. The top end of the market is more greatly affected, then it's a sliding scale. Where I live, it hasnt gone down at all. If anything its still trending up (see pic)

The reason for this is that people are still buying houses. Those that could have bought say closer to the city are now impacted by tighter lending due to generally dropping prices and are forced to go into other markets where the homes are a little cheaper to be able to aford their lenders stressed rate assesments, in turn driving demand and prices of homes in that area up.

Yes recession, yes rates, yes dropping prices. This is all a distraction for all the most leveraged or less affluent people. Think about that for a minute.

Like I said, it's a buyers market. The listed price is almost always negotiable and many sellers are extremely motivated at the moment.

Let's say you do buy a house and take a 5-10% hit in value over the next 12 months. When the market turns, that will be made back inside of a year and probably then some. Sure you risk making a bigger profit, but that's just being greedy. Do you want to risk a guaranteed long term say 30-40% profit (or like many people's crazy +100% profits) for the sake of 5-10%?

If you wait for the bottom, even if you can predict it, the banks and lenders take time to adjust their lending criteria. They're quick to tighten it, but very reluctant to loosen it. It's just risk management 101. They wont loosen untill theyre satisfied the uptick is persistant.

The ONLY reason a buyer should be waiting for the bottom is if they have enough assets or equity in assets or significant enough cash for a deposit (that doesn't get eroded as the market froths up in its return) for a sub 80% LVR lend and can meet the stricter lending criteria imposed by the banks (I.e. not most people). Even then, you're risking it for the sake some inconsequential amount (in the scheme of things) of what you stand to make anyway. You have to be really attuned to the market or really lucky to achieve absolute pure profit in the coming years (i.e. not most people)

Even during the GFC, if you could have bought a a house, you should have. Look at the value increases in between then and now. Don't let the news cycle distract you. If you have the means, take a risk to secure your future.

As poods said, pay your own house off rather than somone else's, because rents are up due to the rates. That actually brings in another aspect, an investment property can potentially be a good move too, because while you're setting higher rents now, when rates drop, rents likley won't, giving you better yield.

Recessions and global turmoil is when money is made. Not just in the stock market.

Any long term assets are a good bet regardless of market conditions, as long as you can afford it. It's like the super balances of people who moved their holdings to cash during GFC or covid rather than keeping it in shares. Those that didn't move them, took a hit early and then rode the recovery well past those "smart" people who limited their losses by holding cash.
 

Attachments

Last edited:

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
it doesn't look like wages are going up,
For some. Some people also don't want to change jobs or ask for a payrise to get ahead either and complain about their living conditions eing eroded.

I got a 20% raise by asking for it and showing my boss the current market rate for my role while he was struggling to fill another role in our team for the last 5 months. Timing is everything.
 

Asininedrivel

caviar connoisseur
I got a 20% raise by asking for it and showing my boss the current market rate for my role while he was struggling to fill another role in our team for the last 5 months. Timing is everything.
I tried the same (10%) but it looks like I'll be denied. Pretty dark about it given apart from everything else I've saved the organisation many, many, many thousands of dollars in project management this year.

But as I'm looking to buy a house it'd be pretty dumb imo to ditch a permanent role for something contract just to secure a raise.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
I tried the same (10%) but it looks like I'll be denied. Pretty dark about it given apart from everything else I've saved the organisation many, many, many thousands of dollars in project management this year.

But as I'm looking to buy a house it'd be pretty dumb imo to ditch a permanent role for something contract just to secure a raise.
yeah tough spot. If you get declined, push harder i reckon. They just need to feel like if they lose you they're, fucked.

I'm open with my boss from day one that I always take recruitment calls and am 100% always open to move for something more interesting. He's seen me on seek plenty of times too. I don't hide it. I've had one prior boss challenge me on that sort of behavior and i countered with " I just don't see the point of hiding it. its dishonest, and I'm not dishonest". Shut the cunt right up.

I've rocked up in a suit before just so I get asked why I'm dressed up and to tell them that I'm just meeting a recruiter for lunch. Of course, just went and had lunch by myself. Sure it could backfire, but any retaliation for this is in my favour.

All of this is to add an air of rsik to the business that when i ask for a payrise, they have seen all this stuff happen before and have to wonder "if i say no, do i only have this guy for the next two weeks?"
 

rockmoose

his flabber is totally gastered
yeah tough spot. If you get declined, push harder i reckon. They just need to feel like if they lose you they're, fucked.

I'm open with my boss from day one that I always take recruitment calls and am 100% always open to move for something more interesting. He's seen me on seek plenty of times too. I don't hide it. I've had one prior boss challenge me on that sort of behavior and i countered with " I just don't see the point of hiding it. its dishonest, and I'm not dishonest". Shut the cunt right up.

I've rocked up in a suit before just so I get asked why I'm dressed up and to tell them that I'm just meeting a recruiter for lunch. Of course, just went and had lunch by myself. Sure it could backfire, but any retaliation for this is in my favour.

All of this is to add an air of rsik to the business that when i ask for a payrise, they have seen all this stuff happen before and have to wonder "if i say no, do i only have this guy for the next two weeks?"
That's all good, but unfortunately the dis/honesty quotas from your 2nd and 3rd paragraphs don't mesh.
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
I tried the same (10%) but it looks like I'll be denied. Pretty dark about it given apart from everything else I've saved the organisation many, many, many thousands of dollars in project management this year.

But as I'm looking to buy a house it'd be pretty dumb imo to ditch a permanent role for something contract just to secure a raise.
Lenders favour people that have been in the same job for 2 years or longer, I wouldn't move until you secure a loan.
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
I intend to have myself in a state of readiness, yesterday is always a good time to buy.

I may be wrong, but I suspect that the rental market is very responsive to increased interest rates. So why not buy and pay your own mortgage rather than the landlord's?
Rents aren't going to slow down that's for sure, land rates, council charges, repairs, services, everything has gone up dramatically. A Tradie charged me $400 just to hammer in a $30 piece of wood on a broken shelf and add a bit of paint, thought they were going to do it properly and dismantle the shelf and replace the broken piece of wood, or I would have done it myself for that much.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Lenders favour people that have been in the same job for 2 years or longer, I wouldn't move until you secure a loan.
6 months - as long as youre not on probation. The only lenders where longer employment factors into the assesment are those that rate for risk (ie custom or non conforming lenders - Pepper, Liberty, Macquarie, latrobe etc.) Banks tend to have a lot more data at their disposal to asses risk, so as long as youre not on probation, they dont care.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Rents aren't going to slow down that's for sure, land rates, council charges, repairs, services, everything has gone up dramatically.
Yep. The only thing that materially puts downward pressure on rents wholesale is vacancy rates. While everything else adds towards the upward trend. Welcome to the rat race
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
Yep. The only thing that materially puts downward pressure on rents wholesale is vacancy rates. While everything else adds towards the upward trend. Welcome to the rat race
Brisbane is a nightmare ATM, I've never seen low vacancy rates like this in all my life. There are usually 240~450 houses up for rent in my area at any one time, now down to 15.
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
Brisbane is a weird market in general. Apartments especially.
I don't do apartments, too many problems with strata issues and building issues, but saying that some people do well out of them.

6 months - as long as youre not on probation. The only lenders where longer employment factors into the assesment are those that rate for risk (ie custom or non conforming lenders - Pepper, Liberty, Macquarie, latrobe etc.) Banks tend to have a lot more data at their disposal to asses risk, so as long as youre not on probation, they dont care.
You're more of a prospect with brokers if you've held a stable job unless you've doubled your salary. I've heard of a few people getting knocked back after changing jobs, even after 6 months.
 
Top