Iran: so how f***ed are we all?

Asininedrivel

caviar connoisseur
I know right! Going to be some really positive vibes happening in here, but I still think it's worth starting a separate thread given the absolute disaster factory Trump has decided to unleash on us all.

The point of this is how bad do you think it might be? News coverage has swung from remarkably pollyanna to we-are-all-going-to-starve-to-death-by-Thursday, stock markets appear to be pretending it doesn't exist and the political classes are largely behaving very, very cautiously. All set against a backdrop of a gridlocked Straight of Hormuz, 20% reduction in oil and gas supply (which for reference is the same amount demand dropped by in those early weeks of COVID when the world was under house arrest) and set against a conflagration in the Middle East that's of a far vaster scale to any prior shitshow we've enthusiastically entangled ourselves in.

Purely regarding fuel costs (which is - for now - going to have the biggest impact on our lives), I heard an interview last week with the CEO of the Australian Institute of Petroleum who stated several times we are probably okay, but if the oil producers start shutting down refineries (a real possibility of transit routes can't be reopened soon) we're in big trouble with the flow on effects in increased costs and potential fuel rationing for everything delivered by truck (which is basically everything) given how we are geographically at the end of a very long supply chain. And that's not even getting into how much fertilizer comes out of the middle east as well..

The most infuriating about all of this is it was all completely avoidable and yet seemingly inevitable, the eventual outcome of giving the keys to the most powerful and influential nation on earth to an impulsive, arrogant toddler who, by being duped into this war has proven to be even stupider than we thought (and I thought he was largely powered by dementia with a sprinkling of syphillis). Surrounded by sycophants even stupider than he is who no doubt nodded and smiled and gushed oh yes Mr President when he suggested that just by raining a few bombs on Tehran on Saturday Iranians would be holding huge Trump ticket parades and annointing him honoury leader god king by Monday. Instead he has got the world embroiled in a quagmire with absolutely no exit strategy beyond the latest petulant tweet as it escalates by the hour.

Well, I already feel better after that rant, but how are you feeling? What are you planning? I've already seen a surprising drop off of people keen to speed and tailgate around the roads of Melbourne in the last week or so which is kinda interesting. Are you dusting off the plans for a veggie garden? Fast tracking an EV purchase / solar panels? Lobbying your MP to tell Pauline the next time she says Australia should be getting involved militarily that she should be volunteering herself as tribute? Or just burying your head under a pillow and just really hoping that this all goes away (and FWIW I really, really don't blame you if you are).
 
Funnily enough, on my commute to work, it felt like all the diesel cars were really going gentle on the accelerator.
Was a very strange feeling not having the usual ute & trailer vs truck grand prix.
 
Free (insert country here)...sorry couldn't help myself.

I try my best to only worry about what I can control, I have no influence or control over world conflict - but I can stay gainfully employed and support my family to pay whatever the petrol price is tomorrow. Keep calm and carry on.
 
Didn't you hear.

Mango Mussolini already won the war.
Oh of course! he did didn't he. He said so. How ungracious of me to question his edicts. Wait but isn't this the same war that the Pentagon has just asked a casual $200 billion in extra funding for? Or is that a different war? Or is it to pay for one of their B-1s to a get a steam clean because it has dirt on it now? I am a confused.
Funnily enough, on my commute to work, it felt like all the diesel cars were really going gentle on the accelerator.
Was a very strange feeling not having the usual ute & trailer vs truck grand prix.
Yeah I really noticed it yesterday, just had the cruise control set to the speed limit for a stretch and was passing everyone until I took the hint and slowed down as well (never know if there's some new speed camera everyone else is aware of).
 
Interestingly I went out to Georgetown trails Saturday as they just opened a new trail at Tippo (it's very good) I was surprised when i got there at 10.30am there where only 7 vehicles in the carpark usually there would be at least 12 + vehicles. It was a top day weather wise.

When I got back at 12.30 there where only 5 vehicles there and the shuttle guy had decided to go go home.

I'd hate to be running shuttles with a diesel vehicle as diesel is now basically $3 ltr a few weeks ago i was paying $1.78ltr.

If you had people book and pay for there shuttles a few weeks ago you be losing money big time running shuttles now.

I have canceled my upcoming MTB trips to St Helens and Zeehan I hate to think how much diesel is going to cost in a few weeks time.
 
The main thing I find odd about this whole situation, is that everyone attributes it to Trump directly. Yeah, he's the one who's kicked it off - either by having the mind of a toddler or by someone else's power of suggestion (Netanyahu/Hegseth/etc...) - but since then it's much more the case that Israel's taking the lead in Iran war/Middle-East conflict with US soldiers assisting/hanging out to assist or spectate. Israel has already ignored several direct requests/ultimatums/hints from Trump and are just doing their own thing and (in our media at least) Trump is copping the heat. I'm not saying Trump isn't largely responsible, but I don't think he's remotely close to controlling the proceedings at this point and it annoys me that Israel isn't copping more shit for this. Their media lobbyists here must be incredibly influential.

On a personal level, I am (very thankfully) insulated from the fuel cost increase having a company fuel card - but I expect 'temporary recreational use limits' will quickly come into play if the fuel prices continue to rise further. In one way I'm glad I live regional, so I have local parks and bushland very nearby I can get my outdoor fix in - but I do worry the price of groceries will get (even more) absurd. I work in the trucking industry and the decrease in demand for repairs/parts/etc... already already is pretty evident while everyone's trying to weather the storm. I hope for all someone in power actually backs down a bit and reduces the pain for all the people in the combat zones and working class folk around the world (so, probably the exact opposite of what the political elites want... :rolleyes:)
 
but I do worry the price of groceries will get (even more) absurd.
That is probably the biggest issue that will hit us.
Glad our build is done and we are in, I imagine the fuel cost will push building prices up again.

Glad I have an EV.
 
The main thing I find odd about this whole situation, is that everyone attributes it to Trump directly. Yeah, he's the one who's kicked it off - either by having the mind of a toddler or by someone else's power of suggestion (Netanyahu/Hegseth/etc...) - but since then it's much more the case that Israel's taking the lead in Iran war/Middle-East conflict with US soldiers assisting/hanging out to assist or spectate. Israel has already ignored several direct requests/ultimatums/hints from Trump and are just doing their own thing and (in our media at least) Trump is copping the heat. I'm not saying Trump isn't largely responsible, but I don't think he's remotely close to controlling the proceedings at this point and it annoys me that Israel isn't copping more shit for this. Their media lobbyists here must be incredibly influential.
Good points. All I'd say is while Trump was near certainly nudged into it by a "omg it'll be so easy the regime is corrupt and near death just needs a swift kick and it'll all collapse and you'll look amazing" by Netanyahu (which ironically, is identical to how Putin was duped into invading Ukraine). Israel's made no secret of encouraging the US to attack Iran for over 40 years, it's just that every President from Reagan to Biden has responded with "lol that's a good one" prior to promptly changing the subject. Trump was the one manipulable and stupid enough to take the bait, but no one should buy any of his protestations that Israel are somehow acting independently - everything they do US Central Command knows about and by extension the President. They never would've gone ahead with this attack without Trump's backing.
On a personal level, I am (very thankfully) insulated from the fuel cost increase having a company fuel card - but I expect 'temporary recreational use limits' will quickly come into play if the fuel prices continue to rise further. In one way I'm glad I live regional, so I have local parks and bushland very nearby I can get my outdoor fix in - but I do worry the price of groceries will get (even more) absurd. I work in the trucking industry and the decrease in demand for repairs/parts/etc... already already is pretty evident while everyone's trying to weather the storm. I hope for all someone in power actually backs down a bit and reduces the pain for all the people in the combat zones and working class folk around the world (so, probably the exact opposite of what the political elites want... :rolleyes:)
Yes, personally I think we should already be on fuel rationing and subsiding the trucking industry along with anything else that reduces demand and makes things easier for people who need a vehicle for a living. We'll be grateful for it when the cost spike at the checkout is less than it's otherwise going to be.
 
That is probably the biggest issue that will hit us.
Glad our build is done and we are in, I imagine the fuel cost will push building prices up again.

Glad I have an EV.
15/3, 78 litres of diesel $207

Today, 72 litres, $212
 
I’ll be definitely commuting to work by bike, every chance I get.
This was the price of fuel in NZ the day before I left.
IMG_0679.jpeg

Air New Zealand has been cancelling flights because of the rising fuel costs and other carriers are following.
 
Yes, personally I think we should already be on fuel rationing...
Yeah, I'd rather ensure fuel is available for getting groceries to supermarkets/goods on shelves than Karen having extra fuel aside for her Lexus GX to meet @pink poodle for "walkies" at the dog/dogging park.

...and subsiding the trucking industry along with anything else that reduces demand and makes things easier for people who need a vehicle for a living. We'll be grateful for it when the cost spike at the checkout is less than it's otherwise going to be.
Subsidising the trucking industry would make me very uneasy. It'd set an precedent that would be hard to undo, and would be mind-bogglingly expensive. You'd wish that a situation like this would lead to meaningful discussions about energy security, diversifying energy supplies/storage, improving our own production capacity, taxing it all appropriately - but all the right-wing folk I know are still busy blaming our Government for "not being on top of this, the fuckwits couldn't run a chook raffle!" (whilst having never giving a single thought to energy security themselves ever before in their life), talking amongst themselves about "How Trump's showing them how it is!" (while seemingly suffering collective amensia about how he also said the war will only take two days, which they were all patting each other on the back about (general gist) their 'big man' can show those Middle-Eastern folk who's boss). It's all rather tedious.
 
main impact so far is to have to check if my EV is in the garage before i go, its the obvious first pick to use when anyone in the house needs to head out. but diesel price is going to hit everything we buy and holidays will go up with fuel levys in no time.

I have made the mistake of looking at my super balance, that wasnt pleasant. The only share thats gone up is ampol
 
Sad how a 20% reduction in oil causes a 40% price spike.
Friend drives a diesel truck for his business and he's forking out a extra $150 a week which is $600 a month.


Thanks Trump you orange retard. Did you seriously think killing the Grand Moff would cause a massive country to suddenly adopt US Capitalism?
 
More importantly, how long until Pushys and the like push free shipping to $150 an upwards..
 
I know right! Going to be some really positive vibes happening in here, but I still think it's worth starting a separate thread given the absolute disaster factory Trump has decided to unleash on us all.

The point of this is how bad do you think it might be? News coverage has swung from remarkably pollyanna to we-are-all-going-to-starve-to-death-by-Thursday, stock markets appear to be pretending it doesn't exist and the political classes are largely behaving very, very cautiously. All set against a backdrop of a gridlocked Straight of Hormuz, 20% reduction in oil and gas supply (which for reference is the same amount demand dropped by in those early weeks of COVID when the world was under house arrest) and set against a conflagration in the Middle East that's of a far vaster scale to any prior shitshow we've enthusiastically entangled ourselves in.

Purely regarding fuel costs (which is - for now - going to have the biggest impact on our lives), I heard an interview last week with the CEO of the Australian Institute of Petroleum who stated several times we are probably okay, but if the oil producers start shutting down refineries (a real possibility of transit routes can't be reopened soon) we're in big trouble with the flow on effects in increased costs and potential fuel rationing for everything delivered by truck (which is basically everything) given how we are geographically at the end of a very long supply chain. And that's not even getting into how much fertilizer comes out of the middle east as well..

The most infuriating about all of this is it was all completely avoidable and yet seemingly inevitable, the eventual outcome of giving the keys to the most powerful and influential nation on earth to an impulsive, arrogant toddler who, by being duped into this war has proven to be even stupider than we thought (and I thought he was largely powered by dementia with a sprinkling of syphillis). Surrounded by sycophants even stupider than he is who no doubt nodded and smiled and gushed oh yes Mr President when he suggested that just by raining a few bombs on Tehran on Saturday Iranians would be holding huge Trump ticket parades and annointing him honoury leader god king by Monday. Instead he has got the world embroiled in a quagmire with absolutely no exit strategy beyond the latest petulant tweet as it escalates by the hour.

Well, I already feel better after that rant, but how are you feeling? What are you planning? I've already seen a surprising drop off of people keen to speed and tailgate around the roads of Melbourne in the last week or so which is kinda interesting. Are you dusting off the plans for a veggie garden? Fast tracking an EV purchase / solar panels? Lobbying your MP to tell Pauline the next time she says Australia should be getting involved militarily that she should be volunteering herself as tribute? Or just burying your head under a pillow and just really hoping that this all goes away (and FWIW I really, really don't blame you if you are).
I take the broad view of why fight (or worry about) what you can't fix. And this is one of those things I can't fix.

Best I can do is keep an eye out for those around me and continue doing what I can for as little as possible.

Though it does look like our planned extension could be significantly curtailed given the likely increases for production & transport of building supplies and any petrochemical derived products...
 
Have noticed a general reduction in weekend traffic, assume people driving less..

But at same time noticed more supercars out the last few weekends (lambos and Mclarens).. fuel is the new flex?
 
I think about people that had plans a lot too - you often have to book things so far in advance and pay for accomodation and transport etc and you get fucked over - this could literally be your once in a lifetime holiday dude to financial pressure you have saved so hard for and BaM!!!!! ……
My ex father in law (daughters grandfather) has decided to pick now to die and he is 4 hrs is away and it has cost my daughter $400 in fuel in a week to see her dying grandfather a couple of time on top of the 2 bedroom unit she rents having the rent raised to $660 (up $40 a week) if she wants to keep living there - I feel so bad for her (and other younger people) juts trying to get anywhere in life.
 
Back
Top