Crypto predictions, dead or not.

Would you buy any crypto

  • Yes

    Votes: 9 28.1%
  • No

    Votes: 15 46.9%
  • Go back to south Australia

    Votes: 8 25.0%

  • Total voters
    32

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
This. except I suspect some sort of inbuilt volatility will be central to it always.


except that in almost all countries now where exchanges operate you have to identify yourself to gain access to buy, sell and trade. The anonymous, surveillance and regulation free panacea evaporated several years ago.
Yes, but isn't that just holding crypto? Once you have it the trades are anonymous in decentralised systems and no one can see what you're using it for. I understand that where resources are available, investigations can be done, but it's not like Visa/Mastercard where all transactions are recorded to the minute detail.
 

Oddjob

Can hench anywhere any time
you have just described every fundamental market in existence lol
You need to go back and do microeconomics 101 and accounting 101 for that matter. Marginal cost, average cost and holding value do not equal market value. Then there are the more specific terms like DORC, DAC, VAR, DCF etc etc etc.

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Squidfayce

Lives under a bridge
Yes, but isn't that just holding crypto? Once you have it the trades are anonymous in decentralised systems and no one can see what you're using it for. I understand that where resources are available, investigations can be done, but it's not like Visa/Mastercard where all transactions are recorded to the minute detail.
While not like visa/mastercard, the transactions stopped being anonymous the moment you had to register to acquire crypto. Its part of AML/CTF regulations the world over. The transaction from one wallet to another like me paying you for drugs or a hitman is as easily tracible as seeing a transaction on a visa or bank statement. Exchanges keep records as does the block chain. So for most people, anonymity is no longer possible.

Where investigations are required is when one needs to marry up multiple sources that make up a block coming into a wallet. But the incoming wallet is known. as are the outbound wallets, there could just be many of them.

There are a few anononymising methods used by criminal enterprise. One involves a handful of small exchanges hat let you transact up to 1.5k without ID. one such exchange is Paxful. Paxful lets you buy crypto peer to peer using gift cards like amazon or itunes etc - they accept i think like a 120 different cards. Ever wonder why scammers are always getting their victims to pay for their ATO bill with gift cards? Now you know.

An expensive Bot exists that allows you to automate the creation of these accounts and trade amongst your own accounts up to the limit to obfuscate the transactions several times and then send the crypto where ever you want. That's when it becomes difficult to identify. Especially if the trading is conducted through SOCKS and via botnets to further obfuscate. its too high effort for the everyday person. But for the most part anonymity is no longer a thing, regulation is in and surveilance is excellent.

Crypto exchanges are required to surveil just like share market exchanges are - Nasdaq have a platform called SMARTS that is industry standard in share market exchanges. They also have a crypto surveillance platform built on the same tech.
https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-trade-surveillance
 
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Squidfayce

Lives under a bridge
You need to go back and do microeconomics 101 and accounting 101 for that matter. Marginal cost, average cost and holding value do not equal market value. Then there are the more specific terms like DORC, DAC, VAR, DCF etc etc etc.

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dont try to overcomplicate your simple statement of "its worth what somone is willing to pay for it" which basically applies to every transaction in every market. The other stuff is peripheral and utilised by some, not all, when making the decision around whether it is worth entering in to the transaction.
 
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Oddjob

Can hench anywhere any time
Yes, but isn't that just holding crypto? Once you have it the trades are anonymous in decentralised systems and no one can see what you're using it for. I understand that where resources are available, investigations can be done, but it's not like Visa/Mastercard where all transactions are recorded to the minute detail.
@Squidfayce has already covered this one.

If you really want anonymity, shell companies, casinos in the Philippines and small private banks in places like Panama and Malta are what you are after.

There used to be other methods like bank promissory notes and 10,000 franc Swiss notes but most of them are falling by the wayside.

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Oddjob

Can hench anywhere any time
dont try to overcomplicate your simple statement of "its worth what somone is willing to pay for it"
Explain to me how the retail electricity market works then. What do people think a MWh is worth? Is this what they actually pay?

How about the oil futures market. What's the discount on Brent futures compared to WTI. Is that based on a formula or do people pay what they feel like?

What about calculating the price of derivatives using black-scholes. Is there anyone who doesn't do it?

There's a reason why market and auction design are their own subsets of academic study.

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Flow-Rider

Burner
And yet people are still finding new ways to separate other people from their money.

I put cars in the same category as art. It's worth what someone thinks it's worth but that's it. A Bugatti Atlantic 57SC doesn't hold a candle to a Chiron performance wise, but guess which one has a higher price tag.

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Anything that is considered an investment by someone, is on speculation with what that investment will be worth monetarily in the future, how people come to speculative conclusions is another story.
 
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Squidfayce

Lives under a bridge
Explain to me how the retail electricity market works then. What do people think a MWh is worth? Is this what they actually pay?

How about the oil futures market. What's the discount on Brent futures compared to WTI. Is that based on a formula or do people pay what they feel like?

What about calculating the price of derivatives using black-scholes. Is there anyone who doesn't do it?

There's a reason why market and auction design are their own subsets of academic study.

Sent from my M2012K11AG using Tapatalk
I think you're still overcomplicating your argument. its unnecessary. There isnt a broker in the world that will take orders for you in these markets without knowing that you understand how they work. And if you do, your decision to trade in these markets is still going to be relative to whether you are prepared to pay the asking price
 

teK--

Eats Squid
Will talk to the accountants about claiming losses as well if possible. If so I hope crypto continues to drop until tax time, then I will sell, claim, rebuy. That would be cool
Yep can claim losses against gains in current or future years
 
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