Crypto predictions, dead or not.

Would you buy any crypto

  • Yes

    Votes: 9 29.0%
  • No

    Votes: 14 45.2%
  • Go back to south Australia

    Votes: 8 25.8%

  • Total voters
    31

Isaakk

Likes Bikes and Dirt
I seem to have picked my dump points pretty well. Bought in on SOL at $105, sold at $280. Bought in on BTC at $45k, then sold the lot at 90k just before the peak. Similar story for ETH.

My parents had $1k in LUNA as a "see what happens" bet. That's now worth approx $20. Rough, but not money they couldn't afford to lose. I've heard of others losing tens to hundreds of thousands, suicide support lines are being posted on the reddit page - no good all around.
 

Squidfayce

Trigger happy
Will talk to the accountants about claiming losses as well if possible. If so I hope crypto continues to drop until tax time, then I will sell, claim, rebuy. That would be cool
cryptos are classed as CGT assets. You can only claim against that profit with capital losses. That is, you only offset capital gains with capital losses. Seeing as you bought bikes, weed, holiday, I'm assuming you didn't realise any meaningfull losses. You might be up for a bill.
 

safreek

I'm not here right now, leave a message
cryptos are classed as CGT assets. You can only claim against that profit with capital losses. That is, you only offset capital gains with capital losses. Seeing as you bought bikes, weed, holiday, I'm assuming you didn't realise any meaningfull losses. You might be up for a bill.
So I was only joking about buying bikes and such ;) I actually reinvested in coins that I can sell at a loss. Does that help me
 

Squidfayce

Trigger happy
So I was only joking about buying bikes and such ;) I actually reinvested in coins that I can sell at a loss. Does that help me
Sure lol, have you got evidence of the cost base and the sales? The exchange does and reports it to the ATO. If it all matches up, you're golden lol
 

safreek

I'm not here right now, leave a message
Sure lol, have you got evidence of the cost base and the sales? The exchange does and reports it to the ATO. If it all matches up, you're golden lol
By the way, have a look at your luna, should of doubled.
I bought 6 dollars worth of luna a couple hours ago, enough for 100, just looked and it's 11 bucks, should I take the money and run.
But if luna ever gets back to a hundred I'll be happy(and in a wheelchair)
It's the most ridiculous purchase price wise but just a funny little interest.
XRP is my next proper buy, it'll jump heaps when the sec fails
 

Oddjob

Can hench anywhere any time
I've tried to stay out of this thread because I'm not interested in crypto but I thought this was worth posting. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-13/bitcoin-crypto-terra-ust-luna-stablecoin-evil-genius-plot/101062388

If the collapse of Mt. Gox wasn't enough of a warning then this should be. Beyond flat out fraud and theft, I'm aware of 2 other technical methods of cornering the crypto market. There would be a lot of clever people on Wall St formulating lots of other strategies.

People who don't have a background in finance aren't cogniscent of the difference between value and price and what that means for things like tulips. They also wouldn't be aware of how fiat currencies came to be and why the USD is the world's reserve currency.

Sent from my M2012K11AG using Tapatalk
 
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johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
I've tried to stay out of this thread because I'm not interested in crypto but I thought this was worth posting. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-13/bitcoin-crypto-terra-ust-luna-stablecoin-evil-genius-plot/101062388

If the collapse of Mt. Gox wasn't enough of a warning then this should be. Beyond flat out fraud and theft, I'm aware of 2 other technical methods of cornering the crypto market. There would be a lot of clever people on Wall St formulating lots of other strategies.

People who don't have a background in finance aren't cogniscent of the difference between value and price and what that means for things like tulips. They also wouldn't be aware of how fiat currencies came to be and why the USD is the world's reserve currency.

Sent from my M2012K11AG using Tapatalk
"That savings pool was offering 20 per cent returns. So lots of innocent people had their money saved up in their thinking they were getting risk-free deposits."

Anyone who thought that 20% returns was a reliable thing is pretty daft.

Not fully sold on the idea that the potential attack on the UST caused the whole crash as there are a number of other variables to consider - particularly the timing and the crash across the board of cryptos. Also, the fact that these currencies can be gamed is no different to the fact that fiat currencies and shares are similarly vulnerable to attacks.

My gut feel is that crypto is like any new market, it will be volatile until if finds equilibrium. But as long as the demand remains - which I think it will as the underlying principles of why it was formed are pretty sound, in that people want peer to peer trading and less regulation and surveillance in their lives - it will continue to exist.
 

rockmoose

Likes Bikes and Dirt
I've tried to stay out of this thread because I'm not interested in crypto but I thought this was worth posting. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-13/bitcoin-crypto-terra-ust-luna-stablecoin-evil-genius-plot/101062388

If the collapse of Mt. Gox wasn't enough of a warning then this should be. Beyond flat out fraud and theft, I'm aware of 2 other technical methods of cornering the crypto market. There would be a lot of clever people on Wall St formulating lots of other strategies.

People who don't have a background in finance aren't cogniscent of the difference between value and price and what that means for things like tulips. They also wouldn't be aware of how fiat currencies came to be and why the USD is the world's reserve currency.

Sent from my M2012K11AG using Tapatalk
I was going to post about that yesterday, but couldn't be arsed.

The fact the crypto cap is so small, only 2 or 3 trillion dollars (eeek), compared to the stock market being 100 times the size, it is easy for the whales to manipulate the market.

We have already seen this happening since they really got involved in the space around November. Things that should have happened based on all logarithmic predictions, didn't. It was clearly visible then, that this had happened due to the market play of a few BIG investors playing games with the market to alter outcomes.

Eventually the market cap will be big enough that these instances will be a lot harder to wrangle. But that is a long way off, and plenty of shifty regulation can happen in the mean time.
 

Oddjob

Can hench anywhere any time
I was going to post about that yesterday, but couldn't be arsed.

The fact the crypto cap is so small, only 2 or 3 trillion dollars (eeek), compared to the stock market being 100 times the size, it is easy for the whales to manipulate the market.

We have already seen this happening since they really got involved in the space around November. Things that should have happened based on all logarithmic predictions, didn't. It was clearly visible then, that this had happened due to the market play of a few BIG investors playing games with the market to alter outcomes.

Eventually the market cap will be big enough that these instances will be a lot harder to wrangle. But that is a long way off, and plenty of shifty regulation can happen in the mean time.
Even with a big enough market cap there will be crashes, see the mortgage backed securities market during the GFC. What keeps a market tethered is linkage to underlying value. So even during a rout, greed will eventually overtake fear and people will start buying up assets because they are so cheap.

During the GFC the linkage to the underlying assets was so opaque and the valuations so shaky the tether was broken. With cryptocurrency there is no underlying asset. Bitcoin is not fungible for anything or backed by anyone.

Sent from my M2012K11AG using Tapatalk
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
The rule of investing has always been 'High gain = High risk'.

Even with a big enough market cap there will be crashes, see the mortgage backed securities market during the GFC. What keeps a market tethered is linkage to underlying value. So even during a rout, greed will eventually overtake fear and people will start buying up assets because they are so cheap.

During the GFC the linkage to the underlying assets was so opaque and the valuations so shaky the tether was broken. With cryptocurrency there is no underlying asset. Bitcoin is not fungible for anything or backed by anyone.

Sent from my M2012K11AG using Tapatalk
It's 2022 get with the schedule, value is coming in all forms these days, look at the sentimental and nostalgic value in an old car that's good for vertically nothing other than looking at or sitting in. You think most people will enjoy driving a non aircon, non powersteer, rattling old beast with sweaty vinyl seats?
 

Oddjob

Can hench anywhere any time
The rule of investing has always been 'High gain = High risk'.


It's 2022 get with the schedule, value is coming in all forms these days, look at the sentimental and nostalgic value in an old car that's good for vertically nothing other than looking at or sitting in. You think most people will enjoy driving a non aircon, non powersteer, rattling old beast with sweaty vinyl seats?
And yet people are still finding new ways to separate other people from their money.

I put cars in the same category as art. It's worth what someone thinks it's worth but that's it. A Bugatti Atlantic 57SC doesn't hold a candle to a Chiron performance wise, but guess which one has a higher price tag.

Sent from my M2012K11AG using Tapatalk
 
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Squidfayce

Trigger happy
My gut feel is that crypto is like any new market, it will be volatile until if finds equilibrium.
This. except I suspect some sort of inbuilt volatility will be central to it always.

as the underlying principles of why it was formed are pretty sound, in that people want peer to peer trading and less regulation and surveillance in their lives - it will continue to exist.
except that in almost all countries now where exchanges operate you have to identify yourself to gain access to buy, sell and trade. The anonymous, surveillance and regulation free panacea evaporated several years ago.
 
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