COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

ashes_mtb

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I'm interested in the people saying we should continue with an elimination strategy. This requires us to keep our borders closed indefinitely with quarantine in place. There's not many countries in the world with that level of permanent isolation. North Korea springs to mind. I just cant see how it is practical long term.
I am not suggesting in any way that we let it rip, but I do think we need to accept that at some point its going to be a part of life and we are all going to get covid. I'd hope everyone had a fair chance at a vaccination by that point. Therefore, I'm not a fan of the NSW govt approach. Would have been better if we could have had a far greater portion of the population vaxxed before it got loose.
I don’t really have the answers, but data from the UK suggests the chances of hospitalisation when fully vaccinated only falls from 7.9% to 2.4%. That’s still a massive level of serious illness even with vaccination.
 

wornoutwords

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7.9% to 2.4%
A ~70% reduction in hospitalisation risk is still pretty significant. I'd take it (and i have)

i kind of wish all those lockdown protests were protesting for something actually meaningful - like how shit the state and fed govt have been at impactful, hard decisions instead of hoping it'll go away by itself, because it wasn't a marketing generated faux issue and they dont actually know how to be a leader, and being dragged along until its too late. It's nearly 2 years in and there's still only 1 dedicated quarantine facility that isn't a fetid serviced apartment block in the cbd. wtf
 

ashes_mtb

Has preferences
A ~70% reduction in hospitalisation risk is still pretty significant. I'd take it (and i have)

i kind of wish all those lockdown protests were protesting for something actually meaningful - like how shit the state and fed govt have been at impactful, hard decisions instead of hoping it'll go away by itself, because it wasn't a marketing generated faux issue and they dont actually know how to be a leader, and being dragged along until its too late. It's nearly 2 years in and there's still only 1 dedicated quarantine facility that isn't a fetid serviced apartment block in the cbd. wtf
Yeah, its a significant reduction and I got vaccinated as quickly as I could; I was just pointing out the residual risk is still very significant. It’s not as if its a case of everyone is vaccinated and we get on with our lives like its just a cold.
 

wornoutwords

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oh yeah, it's definitely still serious even with the vaccine, especially with whatever future variants may bring in regards to changes to severity, vaccine resistance, infection rates etc etc. Especially if it just lets rip
 

caad9

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Yeah, its a significant reduction and I got vaccinated as quickly as I could; I was just pointing out the residual risk is still very significant. It’s not as if its a case of everyone is vaccinated and we get on with our lives like its just a cold.
I had a proper flu for the first time in 2019, I wonder how many of the 'just a flu' crowd have had an actual flu.
I was bed ridden for a week and I was otherwise healthy and quite fit at the time.

I don't want that again if I can avoid it, so Covid can ship right off
 

Kerplunk

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I don’t really have the answers, but data from the UK suggests the chances of hospitalisation when fully vaccinated only falls from 7.9% to 2.4%. That’s still a massive level of serious illness even with vaccination.
Reference for that data please? Age groups etc..
 

stoff

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Not going great either..

It's not really a fair comparison. Looking at days since lockdown started, Vic has similar amounts of cases not isolating on a disturbingly similar curve, fewer overall cases and more significantly about a third of the mystery cases. Trajectory is similar to NSW, but slower. Unless something significantly changes we are only getting out when vaccinations hit the magic number.
 

Plankosaurus

Spongeplank Dalepantski
How they fiddle the numbers
Is it just me or does that math not check out?

At worst it's a halving of the effectiveness rate because it's a doubling of the sample size isn't it? I can't see how subtracting one percentage as a whole number from the other is meant to work

Sent from my H8324 using Tapatalk
 

cokeonspecialtwodollars

Fartes of Portingale
How they fiddle the numbers
So you are saying that 94.16% of people exposed to COVID won't contract it... does that align with the current case numbers in Sydney vs. population?

EDIT: I genuinely didn't know so quick maths later. Sydney population = approx. 5,000,000 and 6% of that number is 300,000. So if you exposed everyone in Sydney you'd expect 300,000 infected, from the last page Sydney has had 22,157 local case since the beginning anybody know if there is data around the actual number of people exposed?
 
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ashes_mtb

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Reference for that data please? Age groups etc..
It was referencing data from the UK Covid Dashboard but I haven’t been able to find it again. I was reading it on the weekend. It was fairly broad, similar to the NYC example you posted, and definitely didn’t break it down by age. From my understanding, efficacy of vaccines varies by age, so they’re very generalised outcomes.

The UK data was hospitalisation rate per confirmed case, rather than per head of population generally, so not directly comparable with the NYC data you posted. I’ll have a hunt over the weekend to see if I can find it again.
 

pink poodle

気が狂っている男
Fuck that's terrible.

My cancer surgery was delayed by a couple of months and in that time the growth had broken its enclosure (which they could see once they'd removed it). If it had been delayed by a couple more months then it MIGHT have broken out and entered the bloodstream which would have been a whole bunch of fuck to deal with.

That would have been pretty fucked. I thought emergency stuff continued to be done, but elective was put on hold. At least that's how I think it was here on NSW.




Nobody is gallivanting off overseas on holidays for shits and giggles.
I know one person who has for pure recreation. As unbelievable as it is they seemingly had no trouble getting out of here and hopping around a few places with minimal quarantine requirements and luxury resorts.

There was also the family that went "fuck it" and travelled in either the last few weeks before or first few weeks of the outbreak lockdown here to attend a wedding but then had great difficulty in getting home. They made for good news stories. Or I imagined the story.

My micro tourism business has certainly not flourished! And is not so transferable to a domestic scenario.

Agriculture is only reliant on migrant workers on special visas because they don't feel the need to pay a fair and reasonable wage and the government supports them in that endeavour. I guess when the pm doesn't think Australia has ever had slaves, you kind of expect it.
 

caad9

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Agriculture is only reliant on migrant workers on special visas because they don't feel the need to pay a fair and reasonable wage and the government supports them in that endeavour. I guess when the pm doesn't think Australia has ever had slaves, you kind of expect it.
I wanted to have a go at this point too, but CBF.
 

rextheute

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I’m of the opinion that as soon as people are given the green light to travel , it will on like donkey Kong - so much pent up ’travel - needs ‘ .
even at present how many grey gonads ( tm @Dales Cannon ) are ‘ isolating in FNQ and WA - I unfortunately have to deal with some of them , super entitled dicks doesn’t come close .
however m there are those who have saved fro 18 months, and have been away from family or Bintang on the beach - doesn’t matter , they are going on a plane ‘somewhere ‘

ps - vax passport or not
pps - ramblings of old person .
 

pink poodle

気が狂っている男
as soon as people are given the green light to travel
My travel fund is primed and ready. I can't do another summer here.




But really if the borders stay closed a while I won't be unhappy about that. While it can't conveniently stay like that forever, I think our governments and selfish population will fuck shit up totally the moment the doors open. So I may as well get out there as fast as I can before it's all gone to shit again.
 
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