COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

silentbutdeadly

has some good things to say
Fark, just saw a government ad saying "for most people, coronavirus is a mild disease with a quick recovery" then waffled on about how it's important to stay away from the oldies though.

W

T

F

???
You could argue that, for most people, it is. The question is whether a) you are one of the most; b) whether you like the idea that most of those that are not the most are in the super masters class and c) nobody knows how many of the most or least there are.

And yet really it's only the economy that matters... apparently.

I can't help wondering if we've all unwittingly enrolled in a course of Financial Eugenics 101 at the ANU...
 

Sethius

Crashed out somewhere
Yeah me and the wife are gonna go for some outdoor exercise, down the coast, isolate in the tent.
Strange this, talking of coast. The Easter holidays are now busier for the Vic surf Coast than Xmas. Partner goes back to 6 days a week to feed the hungry tourist masses "getting away from it all" in their holiday homes together.
 

MARKL

Eats Squid
Tonight we will tick over 400,000 people world wide confirmed with Covid-19.

Current WHO numbers...
Coronavirus cases - 392,440​
Deaths - 17,149​
Recovered - 103,396​

So the mortality rate is currently 4.36% (17,149/392,440)

The thing that scares me is deaths compared to recovered, ie. people for who the virus has run its full course.

17,149/(17,149+103,396) = 14.24% Now I am sure this number is high as it probably underestimates the number of people that have recovered but it still indicates that the overall death rate will become worse.

There is a Lancet article which using smarter people than me comes to a mortality rate around 5.7%. The Lancet paper draws attention to the fact we need to consider current mortality rates, 4.36%, are discounted by the incubation period.

Glad I shared that, sleep well and don't catch it
 

The Duckmeister

Has a juicy midrange
Something that seems to have been completely ignored is the maintenance of physical and mental health. A sizeable (yes I meant that pun) of this country's population is fat, lazy and unhealthy as a result, and already posing a major burden on our health system. While "social distancing" is somewhat necessary, many of the fat & lazy will see it as further encouragement to not get off the couch and exercise, which will only exacerbate the health problems they already have, further burdening the health system.

On the mental side, well we're in for a rough trot whichever way you look at it. But it's imperative that people are able to get outside, do stuff and be even just a little bit active to keep the brain ticking along OK. Total lockdown is not a good idea; it could very well cause a bigger problem than the one it's seeking to avert.

Here I get a little bit personal.... I've lived with depression in varying degrees of severity for 15 or so years, and right now I'm edgy as fuck. So far I've been able to work as normal, so I've got that routine to stay in for now at least to keep me on a level field. But in the long run I'm more worried about my mental health than the small risk posed by the virus.. I am by nature a solitary beast, so the social distancing thing doesn't bother me in the slightest, I could quite happily not deal with other people for weeks on end. But I need to be able to get out, ride my bike, go kayaking, sailing, bushwalking or whatever, anything to get myself outside to feed my brain. I can do all of these things in total, blissful isolation, posing no risk to anyone else, and less risk to myself..If I am forced to become a virtual prisoner in my own home, I will go batshit crazy hemmed in by the same wals and fences. It won't be a good thing. Depression damn near killed me once before, and I sure as hell don't want to let it have another crack. So I am not locking down, but I'm also not hunting out crowds to hang out in, 'cos that's not my scene anyway.
 

_______

Is an alien from 2007
17,149/(17,149+103,396) = 14.24% Now I am sure this number is high as it probably underestimates the number of people that have recovered but it still indicates that the overall death rate will become worse.

There is a Lancet article which using smarter people than me comes to a mortality rate around 5.7%. The Lancet paper draws attention to the fact we need to consider current mortality rates, 4.36%, are discounted by the incubation period.
gotta use recovered numbers from ~1-2 weeks ago (but can't expect an exact time), not current: diers do it before they're at the same point in their infection as recoverees are pronounced "well again". The wonders of statistics and assumptions with fast evolving populations.

Just to make everyone feel even better about how the gov is going.. We have relo’s the live on one of the big greek islands. They haven’t had one case. Yet all schools closed and all non essential work shutdown. They can only leave the house in groups of two or they are fined 50 odd euro.. Same lockdown as the rest of euro, with no cases. And the people are happy about it.. Couldn’t give a fk about the economic impact even though their country is essentially broke..
These are a community who have been invaded, lived through both world and civil wars, coups and frequent earthquakes as well as sometimes wearing pompoms on their shoes when they do national service. They know how to temporary disruption of normal life.

Australians still don't get that for the vast majority of the world not being able to enjoy leisure time, earn a living or even leave their home without fear is not "unacceptable economic hardship" or "the cure being worse than the disease", it is Every The Fucking Day. Governments overthrown (and then underthrown), war, natural disaster, virus outbreak (aren't we glad we don't have ebola?); these are things we all think happen to other people. This is why, even now, we'll let "less severe" criminals out of prison to protect them from COVID-19, but heavens no we'd never release a child from immigration detention when they're guilty of the crime of queue jumping...

Anyway, since no-one else has commented on it yet:
"Contact tracing through digital means, like we've practiced in Singapore"
Occasionally they forget which briefing they aren't supposed to mention.
 

wkkie

It's Not Easy Being Green
Any reason why Victoria has so many more recovered cases than anywhere else in Australia?
 

rockmoose

his flabber is totally gastered
Something that seems to have been completely ignored is the maintenance of physical and mental health. A sizeable (yes I meant that pun) of this country's population is fat, lazy and unhealthy as a result, and already posing a major burden on our health system. While "social distancing" is somewhat necessary, many of the fat & lazy will see it as further encouragement to not get off the couch and exercise, which will only exacerbate the health problems they already have, further burdening the health system.

On the mental side, well we're in for a rough trot whichever way you look at it. But it's imperative that people are able to get outside, do stuff and be even just a little bit active to keep the brain ticking along OK. Total lockdown is not a good idea; it could very well cause a bigger problem than the one it's seeking to avert.

Here I get a little bit personal.... I've lived with depression in varying degrees of severity for 15 or so years, and right now I'm edgy as fuck. So far I've been able to work as normal, so I've got that routine to stay in for now at least to keep me on a level field. But in the long run I'm more worried about my mental health than the small risk posed by the virus.. I am by nature a solitary beast, so the social distancing thing doesn't bother me in the slightest, I could quite happily not deal with other people for weeks on end. But I need to be able to get out, ride my bike, go kayaking, sailing, bushwalking or whatever, anything to get myself outside to feed my brain. I can do all of these things in total, blissful isolation, posing no risk to anyone else, and less risk to myself..If I am forced to become a virtual prisoner in my own home, I will go batshit crazy hemmed in by the same wals and fences. It won't be a good thing. Depression damn near killed me once before, and I sure as hell don't want to let it have another crack. So I am not locking down, but I'm also not hunting out crowds to hang out in, 'cos that's not my scene anyway.
If this pandemic doesn't cull the population to what nature deems to be a sustainable number, perhaps the next one will specifically attack the fatty boomba's.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
 

Boom King

downloaded a pic of moorey's bruised arse
According to Scott, everyone who still has a job is an essential worker. With that in mind, I'm off to work... with around 40 other blokes I don't know, building a block of apartments in Hawthorn.

Also, my wife wants to know if she should keep her appointment at the hair dresser? Given the hair dresser is an essential worker, it would be essential, right?
 

Boom King

downloaded a pic of moorey's bruised arse
Something that seems to have been completely ignored is the maintenance of physical and mental health. A sizeable (yes I meant that pun) of this country's population is fat, lazy and unhealthy as a result, and already posing a major burden on our health system. While "social distancing" is somewhat necessary, many of the fat & lazy will see it as further encouragement to not get off the couch and exercise, which will only exacerbate the health problems they already have, further burdening the health system.

On the mental side, well we're in for a rough trot whichever way you look at it. But it's imperative that people are able to get outside, do stuff and be even just a little bit active to keep the brain ticking along OK. Total lockdown is not a good idea; it could very well cause a bigger problem than the one it's seeking to avert.

Here I get a little bit personal.... I've lived with depression in varying degrees of severity for 15 or so years, and right now I'm edgy as fuck. So far I've been able to work as normal, so I've got that routine to stay in for now at least to keep me on a level field. But in the long run I'm more worried about my mental health than the small risk posed by the virus.. I am by nature a solitary beast, so the social distancing thing doesn't bother me in the slightest, I could quite happily not deal with other people for weeks on end. But I need to be able to get out, ride my bike, go kayaking, sailing, bushwalking or whatever, anything to get myself outside to feed my brain. I can do all of these things in total, blissful isolation, posing no risk to anyone else, and less risk to myself..If I am forced to become a virtual prisoner in my own home, I will go batshit crazy hemmed in by the same wals and fences. It won't be a good thing. Depression damn near killed me once before, and I sure as hell don't want to let it have another crack. So I am not locking down, but I'm also not hunting out crowds to hang out in, 'cos that's not my scene anyway.
Thoughts are with you Duck, times are tough on so many levels.

I've had my own interactions with the black dog over the years. I can't afford not to work but I can't help thinking about the risk I pose to my family doing just that. Stress and anxiety levels are noticeably on the rise to the point where I can hear that pesky dog padding along behind me. At this point I'm lucky that I can't seem to find the ball....
 
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pink poodle

気が狂っている男
According to Scott, everyone who still has a job is an essential worker. With that in mind, I'm off to work... with around 40 other blokes I don't know, building a block of apartments in Hawthorn.

Also, my wife wants to know if she should keep her appointment at the hair dresser? Given the hair dresser is an essential worker, it would be essential, right?
I can't see how your wife has any choice. If she doesn't go it would practically be an act of espionage.


I'm off to make essential take away coffee for essential office workers
 

pink poodle

気が狂っている男
Something that seems to have been completely ignored is the maintenance of physical and mental health. A sizeable (yes I meant that pun) of this country's population is fat, lazy and unhealthy as a result, and already posing a major burden on our health system. While "social distancing" is somewhat necessary, many of the fat & lazy will see it as further encouragement to not get off the couch and exercise, which will only exacerbate the health problems they already have, further burdening the health system.

On the mental side, well we're in for a rough trot whichever way you look at it. But it's imperative that people are able to get outside, do stuff and be even just a little bit active to keep the brain ticking along OK. Total lockdown is not a good idea; it could very well cause a bigger problem than the one it's seeking to avert.

Here I get a little bit personal.... I've lived with depression in varying degrees of severity for 15 or so years, and right now I'm edgy as fuck. So far I've been able to work as normal, so I've got that routine to stay in for now at least to keep me on a level field. But in the long run I'm more worried about my mental health than the small risk posed by the virus.. I am by nature a solitary beast, so the social distancing thing doesn't bother me in the slightest, I could quite happily not deal with other people for weeks on end. But I need to be able to get out, ride my bike, go kayaking, sailing, bushwalking or whatever, anything to get myself outside to feed my brain. I can do all of these things in total, blissful isolation, posing no risk to anyone else, and less risk to myself..If I am forced to become a virtual prisoner in my own home, I will go batshit crazy hemmed in by the same wals and fences. It won't be a good thing. Depression damn near killed me once before, and I sure as hell don't want to let it have another crack. So I am not locking down, but I'm also not hunting out crowds to hang out in, 'cos that's not my scene anyway.
I hear you duck. It's going to be a rough ride for a lot of people. I've it cabin fever already and we aren't even locked down! Hopefully people are able to get the support they need from family and friends and professionals to keep their mental health on track. Decides like life line and beyond blue must be getting hammered at the moment.

Please don't lockdown if it's getting tough, reach out.
 
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