COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

hifiandmtb

Sphincter beanie
no we shouldn’t, this is not a reputable site or peer reviewed article..i can draw a graph that goes up high in 5 mins

secondly you can do nothing now about icu beds, thirdly even if you added 1000 beds tomorrow (which we can’t afford) we do not have the people to staff them..most who go to hospital. will be on an isolation ward, in normal bed, not an icu bed
Thanks for the feedback.

You can argue the timing but not the fact that ICU beds will run out.

Stop being a pedantic idiot.
 

Flow-Rider

Burner
From an ICU Doctor in Brisbane. /posts/10159489252013957


For your consideration .... this from clubbie Sarah Neumann..... no media beat up, no agenda, just one of the humans on the frontline we will all be looking to. Help her out. Be a hero. Stay home. #stayhome #netflixandsavelives

*

Hi folks,

Those who don't know me, I'm a recently returned club member and an intensive care doctor.

Right now I'm scared, I don't get scared easily ... I'm used to adrenaline, risk and having lives (including my own) in my hands both through work and extreme sports.

CoVid-19 ... I'm downright terrified, I'm terrified because our data and case rate is replicating Italy. Our government is failing to undertake extreme measures needed to halt the pandemic or slow the transmission, all measures are being taken too late.

I'm terrified because based on on the Italy data I have maybe maximum two weeks, two weeks before life completely changes and the first wave of critically ill Covid patients hits my ICU.

Why am I telling you this? Because you are the group of people who need to stop spreading the illness. People need to stop asking how they can minimise their own risk of catching it and ask how they can stop spreading it.

Some of you have probably already been exposed, some will get sick and some won't. Younger people appear to display less symptoms or even none. But they infect others.

It's just a mild illness.... NO it's not. Many people will have a mild course of the illness but in Italy about 20-25% of people presenting to hospital needed ICU, this includes young adults with no medical history. The club is mixture of age groups but already in the over 40s and over 50s the complication and death rate goes up ... if you are male with blood pressure or heart conditions (even if well treated) your risk is higher.

In Lombardy Italy they have a better resourced health care system than here, BETTER resourced. They have more ICU beds per capita than we do. They are used to being able to offer Intensive Care support to all patient who need it.

Not any more, I just listened to an Italian doctors voice crack and she described how they now are leave 60-year-old patients with NO other significant medical issues on the ward to die because they cannot justify using the ICU bed for older patients when they need it for 35 or 40 year olds.

See it might be mild for most, but the huge number of cases means than even if a small percentage need intensive care - that's a huge number. We simply don't have the beds or resources.

We are about to enter a period of 3rd world health care. If you crash your bike and need trauma surgery we may not be able to access the operating theatre or give you an ICU bed. If you get bad appendicitis with severe infection, we may not be able to operate quickly or support you in ICU. If you or your partner is pregnant and there are life threatening complications of childbirth, we may not have a bed for you.

We desperately need you to help slow the progression of this pandemic, we can't stop it - we can only hope to slow the spread so that the demand on resources is spread over a longer time.

Please don't brush this off as business as usual, I bed you to consider the following:
  1. work from home if at all possible
  2. avoid groups of more than 5-10 people this includes riding, I would pick a small group you generally ride with and continue to ride with the same group - DO NOT swap between groups through the week
  3. I would strongly suggest that large rides and racing be put on hold - time for Zwift events
  4. Kids are unlikely to get seriously unwell, please don't worry about your kids the Italy scenario shows us that so few kids needed ICU they closed their paediatric ICU and are using it for adults.

5) avoid cinemas, shopping centers, restaurants and any social settings that aren't essential

6) keep your distance in social settings and avoid physical contact

I will also say this, in Italy they are treating their colleagues, they have doctors and nurses critical in ICU. Despite government assurances we DO NOT have enough protective equipment for health care workers. At some stage I will have to chose between treating my patients without adequate protection and protecting myself. I don't get to work from home.

Please help me, slow the spread. Both my parents are in the age group that would be denied ICU in Italy, as I'm sure most of you have parents and relatives in similar age groups. I know that soon I'll be forced to try and save younger lives over older ones.
 

Nambra

Definitely should have gone to specsavers
I rode with my son yesterday arvo and we were the only ones on the trails - saw nobody for 90 minutes. I saw one couple setting off to walk their dog when we were leaving, but it was otherwise a ghost town. The injury thing is a valid risk though, so we took things at an easy pace. Conditions in SEQ are perfect for riding at present too.
 

indica

Serial flasher
Any y’all getting ready for major disruption, breakdown of global supply lines, lockdown or the end of civilisation?
Good call there mate. We are fucked....
When it hits my work place shit is going to go really badly.
I have 20 days Pandemic Leave up my sleeve though.
 

FigBo0T

Puts verniers on his headtube
The NSW health minister is doing another press conference live now. Mr Hazzard doesn't look well. Coughing, squinting, looking very stressed and drained .....
 

FigBo0T

Puts verniers on his headtube
Well it certainly wouldn't be lost in those guys singing too drunk to cum! They stole the idea from somewhere...lucky I'm here to educate.
Lucky.
There's a line in the song about bawling like a baby in eraser head. Perhaps I stretched too far
People are so uncultured.

This is a special version of the song for the less enlightened ...

 
Last edited:

safreek

*******
Good call there mate. We are fucked....
When it hits my work place shit is going to go really badly.
I have 20 days Pandemic Leave up my sleeve though.
I envisage much drama for you as I now know your clientele, your life will be fucked as a lot are pretty selfish
 

LPG

likes thicc birds
I am wishing more was done now not later when we need to double our restrictions for the same result. See below frustrations from the week.

FFS Story one: My work has always been against working from home. I can do most if not all of my work from home but I am expected to do my 38 hrs weekly in the office. Working from home is when you do more than that. On friday they decided that as part of our response we were going to turn all the air con off as it could spread the virus. There are no opentable windows and the afternoon sun shines in. We were hot within 5 minutes and it got worse all afternoon. Feel free to come in in shorts and thongs on monday (but make sure you put pants and work boots to walk every time you go to the workshop). FFS, this isn't necessary.

FFS Story 2: Went to woolies for some groceries. I typically buy cans of black beans, kidney beans, chickpeas a few at a time. My shop had 6 cans of vegetables in the hand basket. The woman at the checkout said they can only process 2 cans per transaction. I said I'll put them back, I only need 2 for dinner tonight. She basically forced me not to and said that shed just run my stuff through in 3 different transactions and that shes been doing it all day due to the silly rules. The rules are there for a reason, having people at the checkout be doing them like this to whoever's is ridiculous. (2 cans total for any canned vegetables seems pretty minimal though)

It's pretty depressing how little effort the average person (or the government) is putting in.
 

FigBo0T

Puts verniers on his headtube
From an ICU Doctor in Brisbane. /posts/10159489252013957


For your consideration .... this from clubbie Sarah Neumann..... no media beat up, no agenda, just one of the humans on the frontline we will all be looking to. Help her out. Be a hero. Stay home. #stayhome #netflixandsavelives

*

Hi folks,

Those who don't know me, I'm a recently returned club member and an intensive care doctor.

Right now I'm scared, I don't get scared easily ... I'm used to adrenaline, risk and having lives (including my own) in my hands both through work and extreme sports.

CoVid-19 ... I'm downright terrified, I'm terrified because our data and case rate is replicating Italy. Our government is failing to undertake extreme measures needed to halt the pandemic or slow the transmission, all measures are being taken too late.

I'm terrified because based on on the Italy data I have maybe maximum two weeks, two weeks before life completely changes and the first wave of critically ill Covid patients hits my ICU.

Why am I telling you this? Because you are the group of people who need to stop spreading the illness. People need to stop asking how they can minimise their own risk of catching it and ask how they can stop spreading it.

Some of you have probably already been exposed, some will get sick and some won't. Younger people appear to display less symptoms or even none. But they infect others.

It's just a mild illness.... NO it's not. Many people will have a mild course of the illness but in Italy about 20-25% of people presenting to hospital needed ICU, this includes young adults with no medical history. The club is mixture of age groups but already in the over 40s and over 50s the complication and death rate goes up ... if you are male with blood pressure or heart conditions (even if well treated) your risk is higher.

In Lombardy Italy they have a better resourced health care system than here, BETTER resourced. They have more ICU beds per capita than we do. They are used to being able to offer Intensive Care support to all patient who need it.

Not any more, I just listened to an Italian doctors voice crack and she described how they now are leave 60-year-old patients with NO other significant medical issues on the ward to die because they cannot justify using the ICU bed for older patients when they need it for 35 or 40 year olds.

See it might be mild for most, but the huge number of cases means than even if a small percentage need intensive care - that's a huge number. We simply don't have the beds or resources.

We are about to enter a period of 3rd world health care. If you crash your bike and need trauma surgery we may not be able to access the operating theatre or give you an ICU bed. If you get bad appendicitis with severe infection, we may not be able to operate quickly or support you in ICU. If you or your partner is pregnant and there are life threatening complications of childbirth, we may not have a bed for you.

We desperately need you to help slow the progression of this pandemic, we can't stop it - we can only hope to slow the spread so that the demand on resources is spread over a longer time.

Please don't brush this off as business as usual, I bed you to consider the following:
  1. work from home if at all possible
  2. avoid groups of more than 5-10 people this includes riding, I would pick a small group you generally ride with and continue to ride with the same group - DO NOT swap between groups through the week
  3. I would strongly suggest that large rides and racing be put on hold - time for Zwift events
  4. Kids are unlikely to get seriously unwell, please don't worry about your kids the Italy scenario shows us that so few kids needed ICU they closed their paediatric ICU and are using it for adults.
5) avoid cinemas, shopping centers, restaurants and any social settings that aren't essential

6) keep your distance in social settings and avoid physical contact

I will also say this, in Italy they are treating their colleagues, they have doctors and nurses critical in ICU. Despite government assurances we DO NOT have enough protective equipment for health care workers. At some stage I will have to chose between treating my patients without adequate protection and protecting myself. I don't get to work from home.

Please help me, slow the spread. Both my parents are in the age group that would be denied ICU in Italy, as I'm sure most of you have parents and relatives in similar age groups. I know that soon I'll be forced to try and save younger lives over older ones.
Hasn't it been established that there are two strains? The one in Italy/Iran, and the one from China. We surely have the latter. The death and ICU Doomsday® predictions are using Italy as the model.

How do you say hyperbole?
 

downunderdallas

Likes Bikes and Dirt
secondly you can do nothing now about icu beds, thirdly even if you added 1000 beds tomorrow (which we can’t afford) we do not have the people to staff them..most who go to hospital. will be on an isolation ward, in normal bed, not an icu bed
I listened to an intensive care doctor from Italy on the BBC radio last night who was quarantined as he had contracted the virus describe how in his town in Northern Italy they were creating something like 64 ICU beds (or as close to as they could get) a day in the best facility they could find. They were doing the best they could staffing but he said any and every doctor was effectively working in emergency, pediatricians intubating people. This is not business as usual by a very very long stretch.
 

MARKL

Eats Squid
There was a dude at the local supermarket today with a trolley overflowing with nothing but bread...bread FFS....it's not like it has a shelf life or anything...
 
Top