COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

Cardy George

Not guilty
Delta Goodrem... is that spelt right. I have heard of her and seen her on the missus spinny chair program.

I only watch TV when its Netflix Docos, reckon I can do an hour now of 'how to become a tyrant' before bed.
Didn't hurt that she can actually sing, unlike many others who tried to use Neighbours as a spring board into a music career.

Really really didn't hurt that she's not hard to look at either.
 

PINT of Stella. mate!

One Scotch & Joke
The sewage plant samples seem to be, if you'll excuse the pun, a load of shit. For the past year we in Vic have repeatedly been fed the "news" that virus fragments had been picked up in wastewater. In areas that never presented confirmed cases, either before or after the sewage sampling.
This article's from back in December of last year:

Australian study shows wastewater testing can detect coronavirus weeks before people show symptoms - ABC News

Can someone more science-ey please explain just how we keep detecting it in poo in areas where there are never any resulting confirmed infections? The article above seems happy to plod along under the assumption that it's been circulating in people who are asymptomatic but that just doesn't add up. The latest research into symptomatic buggers vs your typhoid marys suggest it's as low as 17% of covid cases that are asymptomatic or roughly 1 out of every 5. Even if it were skewed the other way and for every 5 asymptomatic cases there was just 1 who showed symptoms there would still be news of an outbreak in the sort of timeframes they're talking about.

Something doesn't smell right!

The only logical explanation I can think of is there's a common or garden coronavirus that's been around for donkeys years (possibly the common cold?) that resembles Covid 19 when it's been swimming amongst the Mersey Trout but we've just never tested for it before, but surely the poo boffins would have considered this?

Now my mind may be biased by the fact I've just finished another rewatch of The Wire but I can't help but think this sounds like McNulty's 'Serial Killer' in season 5! Is this just a ploy to get more funding so they can test more poo?
 

Ackland

Eats Squid
We have one active case and they went immediately into quarantine (now in Brisbane).

Yes it could all change but Cairns is one of the safest places in Australia when it comes to COVID.

But as others have said, TAS could get further cases and Pallychook could slam the door shut and off to quarantine you go.
 

Flow-Rider

Wheel size expert
Some quality wares in that shop! Ask to see the back room.


It seems your government is doing it wrong. Good luck with the Olympics.
Palachook isn't the sharpest tool in the shed, with all the influx of people looking for cheap housing we have a shortage of amenities in some areas, it is very difficult for people to even visit a local GP away from the CBD.
 
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Flow-Rider

Wheel size expert
This article's from back in December of last year:

Australian study shows wastewater testing can detect coronavirus weeks before people show symptoms - ABC News

Can someone more science-ey please explain just how we keep detecting it in poo in areas where there are never any resulting confirmed infections? The article above seems happy to plod along under the assumption that it's been circulating in people who are asymptomatic but that just doesn't add up. The latest research into symptomatic buggers vs your typhoid marys suggest it's as low as 17% of covid cases that are asymptomatic or roughly 1 out of every 5. Even if it were skewed the other way and for every 5 asymptomatic cases there was just 1 who showed symptoms there would still be news of an outbreak in the sort of timeframes they're talking about.

Something doesn't smell right!

The only logical explanation I can think of is there's a common or garden coronavirus that's been around for donkeys years (possibly the common cold?) that resembles Covid 19 when it's been swimming amongst the Mersey Trout but we've just never tested for it before, but surely the poo boffins would have considered this?

Now my mind may be biased by the fact I've just finished another rewatch of The Wire but I can't help but think this sounds like McNulty's 'Serial Killer' in season 5! Is this just a ploy to get more funding so they can test more poo?
When doctors tested kids at the start of the outbreak in Wuhan, the nasal and throat swabs tested negative but anal swabs tested positive and the kids showed minor to no symptoms of the virus. Maybe it is more prevalent in the community than people think, or bullshit about their travel so that they don't get fined or lynch mobbed.
 

smaj

Squid
We need AFP on all inroads stat. We must not burst the Canberra bubble. A term I hated in the other context but embrace now.

Seriously though we're all sitting here thinking it's a bit inevitable.
Yeah, I see them crowing about no cases here on the news in the last couple of days, and I'm thinking "nooo, don't tempt fate!"
 

Scotty T

2.6 inches
Yeah get your Stromlo rides in now I think we are going to be in the no further than 5km from home club soon.
Lucky I live 3km away ;) Sadly for you Majura is probably unrideable for a while.

Handlebar has decided to not open this weekend with the weather predictions, probably good to also keep any sneaky fucks from coming in the back door for a ride.
 

Litenbror

Likes Bikes and Dirt
Lucky I live 3km away ;) Sadly for you Majura is probably unrideable for a while.

Handlebar has decided to not open this weekend with the weather predictions, probably good to also keep any sneaky fucks from coming in the back door for a ride.
Bah yeah Majura will be a swamp for a while I think, I'm just within the 5km for the downhill trails but they will be soup atm. There will be lots of Mt Ainslie fire road loops for me I suspect.
 

gippyz

Likes Dirt
This article's from back in December of last year:

Australian study shows wastewater testing can detect coronavirus weeks before people show symptoms - ABC News

Can someone more science-ey please explain just how we keep detecting it in poo in areas where there are never any resulting confirmed infections? The article above seems happy to plod along under the assumption that it's been circulating in people who are asymptomatic but that just doesn't add up. The latest research into symptomatic buggers vs your typhoid marys suggest it's as low as 17% of covid cases that are asymptomatic or roughly 1 out of every 5. Even if it were skewed the other way and for every 5 asymptomatic cases there was just 1 who showed symptoms there would still be news of an outbreak in the sort of timeframes they're talking about.

Something doesn't smell right!

The only logical explanation I can think of is there's a common or garden coronavirus that's been around for donkeys years (possibly the common cold?) that resembles Covid 19 when it's been swimming amongst the Mersey Trout but we've just never tested for it before, but surely the poo boffins would have considered this?

Now my mind may be biased by the fact I've just finished another rewatch of The Wire but I can't help but think this sounds like McNulty's 'Serial Killer' in season 5! Is this just a ploy to get more funding so they can test more poo?
The work is based on the premise (or findings) that covid sufferers shed the covid RNA in their stool after they are infected. There have been previous studies about this, so it is likely to be true.

If you read through the paper - I won't go through it in great detail, but essentially, the methods they used to extract the viral RNA from the wastewater samples yield inconsistent results for both positive and negative samples. One of methods they used, from my understanding, basically counts the number of copies of the virus per litre of samples. If there are only small amount of virus in the samples, then this method is a hidden miss. Then they did some mathematical simulation to identify whether the presence of the virus in the stool and wastewater is in any way correlated with the positive cases, and as expected, the first yield a high correlation.

The paper also highlighted other studies which over-estimated the number of positive cases (from the wastewater). The model only found correlation between virus in stool and positive cases, and did not have the ability to reliably correlate the actual number of positive cases with the copies of viral RNA in the wastewater or stool (it wouldn't have been possible with the method they used anyway). EDIT: they actually have a formula to estimate the number of cases based on number of viral RNA copies, poop amount, wastewater amount, etc, but my guess is that even that is an over-estimation.

More importantly, this study is a proof of concept that have been shown to be promising. As with any biological experiments, there were likely to be only small sample sizes, which elevated the possibility of spurious results. As the authors noted, the method is promising, but larger sample size is required. They also noted the need for more reliable way of extracting the RNA of the virus from the sample, and that it is very hard to reliably quantify the presence of the virus if there is only a small amount of it.

So tldr, yes the method can reliably find positive cases if there were many of them, but in the case of only a small number, it struggles, as expected. Moreover, if you have covid, chances of the virus being present in your poop is very likely.

Have a read of the paper if you are interested: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720322816. Just focus on the intro and discussion if the result section is too much.
 
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