COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

moorey

call me Mia
If only the virus was influenced by political rhetoric and bullshit. Unfortunately it isn't. This "living with it" approach is going to be a disaster based on the overseas experience both through lives lost and economically.
Yep. Honestly, the current modeling is frightening the fuck out of me.
Feels like Vic has done the hard yards, and it will all be wasted now.

380470
 

moorey

call me Mia
Those numbers do not make sense to me. 4400 cases in December per day and 2200 daily deaths implies a mortality rate of 50%.
I'm not saying things are rosy by any stretch but that seems overly pessimistic
Agreed. Assuming that’s the worse case scenarios, but it was still upsetting to read (in The Age, not a clickbait rag)
 

dazz

Downhill Dazz
It feels like the 'open up' camp still believe it won't touch them.
At 4400 cases a day it's bound to be very close to everyone, if not in them.
Thing is, it probably won't. Vic has a pop of 6.7 mil, it would take over 4 years to infect everyone if you averaged 4400 cases per day. (note, I'm NOT in the 'open up' or 'let it rip' camp)
 

dazz

Downhill Dazz
A vaccine hesitant mate of mine got his first shot on the weekend. Seems that mandate for construction workers to get vaccinated might be having an effect but whatever, stoked he's done it.
Seems to be an awful lot of people in the "I'm not against the vaccine, but I don't want to be forced to have it". Particularly the younger crowd, I get a strong anti authority vibe about it.
 

ozzybmx

taking a shit with my boobs out
Seems to be an awful lot of people in the "I'm not against the vaccine, but I don't want to be forced to have it". Particularly the younger crowd, I get a strong anti authority vibe about it.
My workforce is 50% horse punchers, 30% fence sitters, 20% vaxxed.
Will see how long that lasts when vid arrives in SA.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Thing is, it probably won't. Vic has a pop of 6.7 mil, it would take over 4 years to infect everyone if you averaged 4400 cases per day. (note, I'm NOT in the 'open up' or 'let it rip' camp)
youre making the assumption that 4400 is the cap. at 4400 average per day, without mitigants (which is pretty much where we expect to be in dec pe rplan), has a seriously high possibility of an exponential ramp to well over that. The govt is basically preparing us for the covid apocalypse. Get vaccinated and hope your enot a serious case when you get it is the current approach.
 

dazz

Downhill Dazz
youre making the assumption that 4400 is the cap. at 4400 average per day, without mitigants (which is pretty much where we expect to be in dec pe rplan), has a seriously high possibility of an exponential ramp to well over that. The govt is basically preparing us for the covid apocalypse. Get vaccinated and hope your enot a serious case when you get it is the current approach.
I'm not making any assumptions. I was simply pointing out that a peak of 4400 cases per day, while a scary number, is still an incredibly small portion of the pop in Vic. Only a tiny percentage of people in the 'open up' camp will have close or direct contact with the virus.
It feels like the 'open up' camp still believe it won't touch them.
At 4400 cases a day it's bound to be very close to everyone, if not in them.
Basically, I was trying to say that I don't think that number of cases is high enough to sway opinion in the way that caad9 described, ie though close or direct contact. I'll be stoked if I'm proven wrong though!
 
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