Crypto predictions, dead or not.

Would you buy any crypto

  • Yes

    Votes: 8 22.9%
  • No

    Votes: 18 51.4%
  • Go back to south Australia

    Votes: 9 25.7%

  • Total voters
    35

safreek

*******
Sure lol, have you got evidence of the cost base and the sales? The exchange does and reports it to the ATO. If it all matches up, you're golden lol
By the way, have a look at your luna, should of doubled.
I bought 6 dollars worth of luna a couple hours ago, enough for 100, just looked and it's 11 bucks, should I take the money and run.
But if luna ever gets back to a hundred I'll be happy(and in a wheelchair)
It's the most ridiculous purchase price wise but just a funny little interest.
XRP is my next proper buy, it'll jump heaps when the sec fails
 

Oddjob

Merry fucking Xmas to you assholes
I've tried to stay out of this thread because I'm not interested in crypto but I thought this was worth posting. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05...st-luna-stablecoin-evil-genius-plot/101062388

If the collapse of Mt. Gox wasn't enough of a warning then this should be. Beyond flat out fraud and theft, I'm aware of 2 other technical methods of cornering the crypto market. There would be a lot of clever people on Wall St formulating lots of other strategies.

People who don't have a background in finance aren't cogniscent of the difference between value and price and what that means for things like tulips. They also wouldn't be aware of how fiat currencies came to be and why the USD is the world's reserve currency.

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johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
I've tried to stay out of this thread because I'm not interested in crypto but I thought this was worth posting. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05...st-luna-stablecoin-evil-genius-plot/101062388

If the collapse of Mt. Gox wasn't enough of a warning then this should be. Beyond flat out fraud and theft, I'm aware of 2 other technical methods of cornering the crypto market. There would be a lot of clever people on Wall St formulating lots of other strategies.

People who don't have a background in finance aren't cogniscent of the difference between value and price and what that means for things like tulips. They also wouldn't be aware of how fiat currencies came to be and why the USD is the world's reserve currency.

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"That savings pool was offering 20 per cent returns. So lots of innocent people had their money saved up in their thinking they were getting risk-free deposits."

Anyone who thought that 20% returns was a reliable thing is pretty daft.

Not fully sold on the idea that the potential attack on the UST caused the whole crash as there are a number of other variables to consider - particularly the timing and the crash across the board of cryptos. Also, the fact that these currencies can be gamed is no different to the fact that fiat currencies and shares are similarly vulnerable to attacks.

My gut feel is that crypto is like any new market, it will be volatile until if finds equilibrium. But as long as the demand remains - which I think it will as the underlying principles of why it was formed are pretty sound, in that people want peer to peer trading and less regulation and surveillance in their lives - it will continue to exist.
 

rockmoose

his flabber is totally gastered
I've tried to stay out of this thread because I'm not interested in crypto but I thought this was worth posting. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05...st-luna-stablecoin-evil-genius-plot/101062388

If the collapse of Mt. Gox wasn't enough of a warning then this should be. Beyond flat out fraud and theft, I'm aware of 2 other technical methods of cornering the crypto market. There would be a lot of clever people on Wall St formulating lots of other strategies.

People who don't have a background in finance aren't cogniscent of the difference between value and price and what that means for things like tulips. They also wouldn't be aware of how fiat currencies came to be and why the USD is the world's reserve currency.

Sent from my M2012K11AG using Tapatalk
I was going to post about that yesterday, but couldn't be arsed.

The fact the crypto cap is so small, only 2 or 3 trillion dollars (eeek), compared to the stock market being 100 times the size, it is easy for the whales to manipulate the market.

We have already seen this happening since they really got involved in the space around November. Things that should have happened based on all logarithmic predictions, didn't. It was clearly visible then, that this had happened due to the market play of a few BIG investors playing games with the market to alter outcomes.

Eventually the market cap will be big enough that these instances will be a lot harder to wrangle. But that is a long way off, and plenty of shifty regulation can happen in the mean time.
 

Oddjob

Merry fucking Xmas to you assholes
I was going to post about that yesterday, but couldn't be arsed.

The fact the crypto cap is so small, only 2 or 3 trillion dollars (eeek), compared to the stock market being 100 times the size, it is easy for the whales to manipulate the market.

We have already seen this happening since they really got involved in the space around November. Things that should have happened based on all logarithmic predictions, didn't. It was clearly visible then, that this had happened due to the market play of a few BIG investors playing games with the market to alter outcomes.

Eventually the market cap will be big enough that these instances will be a lot harder to wrangle. But that is a long way off, and plenty of shifty regulation can happen in the mean time.
Even with a big enough market cap there will be crashes, see the mortgage backed securities market during the GFC. What keeps a market tethered is linkage to underlying value. So even during a rout, greed will eventually overtake fear and people will start buying up assets because they are so cheap.

During the GFC the linkage to the underlying assets was so opaque and the valuations so shaky the tether was broken. With cryptocurrency there is no underlying asset. Bitcoin is not fungible for anything or backed by anyone.

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Flow-Rider

Burner
The rule of investing has always been 'High gain = High risk'.

Even with a big enough market cap there will be crashes, see the mortgage backed securities market during the GFC. What keeps a market tethered is linkage to underlying value. So even during a rout, greed will eventually overtake fear and people will start buying up assets because they are so cheap.

During the GFC the linkage to the underlying assets was so opaque and the valuations so shaky the tether was broken. With cryptocurrency there is no underlying asset. Bitcoin is not fungible for anything or backed by anyone.

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It's 2022 get with the schedule, value is coming in all forms these days, look at the sentimental and nostalgic value in an old car that's good for vertically nothing other than looking at or sitting in. You think most people will enjoy driving a non aircon, non powersteer, rattling old beast with sweaty vinyl seats?
 

Oddjob

Merry fucking Xmas to you assholes
The rule of investing has always been 'High gain = High risk'.


It's 2022 get with the schedule, value is coming in all forms these days, look at the sentimental and nostalgic value in an old car that's good for vertically nothing other than looking at or sitting in. You think most people will enjoy driving a non aircon, non powersteer, rattling old beast with sweaty vinyl seats?
And yet people are still finding new ways to separate other people from their money.

I put cars in the same category as art. It's worth what someone thinks it's worth but that's it. A Bugatti Atlantic 57SC doesn't hold a candle to a Chiron performance wise, but guess which one has a higher price tag.

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Squidfayce

Eats Squid
My gut feel is that crypto is like any new market, it will be volatile until if finds equilibrium.
This. except I suspect some sort of inbuilt volatility will be central to it always.

as the underlying principles of why it was formed are pretty sound, in that people want peer to peer trading and less regulation and surveillance in their lives - it will continue to exist.
except that in almost all countries now where exchanges operate you have to identify yourself to gain access to buy, sell and trade. The anonymous, surveillance and regulation free panacea evaporated several years ago.
 

johnny

I'll tells ya!
Staff member
This. except I suspect some sort of inbuilt volatility will be central to it always.


except that in almost all countries now where exchanges operate you have to identify yourself to gain access to buy, sell and trade. The anonymous, surveillance and regulation free panacea evaporated several years ago.
Yes, but isn't that just holding crypto? Once you have it the trades are anonymous in decentralised systems and no one can see what you're using it for. I understand that where resources are available, investigations can be done, but it's not like Visa/Mastercard where all transactions are recorded to the minute detail.
 

Oddjob

Merry fucking Xmas to you assholes
you have just described every fundamental market in existence lol
You need to go back and do microeconomics 101 and accounting 101 for that matter. Marginal cost, average cost and holding value do not equal market value. Then there are the more specific terms like DORC, DAC, VAR, DCF etc etc etc.

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Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Yes, but isn't that just holding crypto? Once you have it the trades are anonymous in decentralised systems and no one can see what you're using it for. I understand that where resources are available, investigations can be done, but it's not like Visa/Mastercard where all transactions are recorded to the minute detail.
While not like visa/mastercard, the transactions stopped being anonymous the moment you had to register to acquire crypto. Its part of AML/CTF regulations the world over. The transaction from one wallet to another like me paying you for drugs or a hitman is as easily tracible as seeing a transaction on a visa or bank statement. Exchanges keep records as does the block chain. So for most people, anonymity is no longer possible.

Where investigations are required is when one needs to marry up multiple sources that make up a block coming into a wallet. But the incoming wallet is known. as are the outbound wallets, there could just be many of them.

There are a few anononymising methods used by criminal enterprise. One involves a handful of small exchanges hat let you transact up to 1.5k without ID. one such exchange is Paxful. Paxful lets you buy crypto peer to peer using gift cards like amazon or itunes etc - they accept i think like a 120 different cards. Ever wonder why scammers are always getting their victims to pay for their ATO bill with gift cards? Now you know.

An expensive Bot exists that allows you to automate the creation of these accounts and trade amongst your own accounts up to the limit to obfuscate the transactions several times and then send the crypto where ever you want. That's when it becomes difficult to identify. Especially if the trading is conducted through SOCKS and via botnets to further obfuscate. its too high effort for the everyday person. But for the most part anonymity is no longer a thing, regulation is in and surveilance is excellent.

Crypto exchanges are required to surveil just like share market exchanges are - Nasdaq have a platform called SMARTS that is industry standard in share market exchanges. They also have a crypto surveillance platform built on the same tech.
https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-trade-surveillance
 
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Squidfayce

Eats Squid
You need to go back and do microeconomics 101 and accounting 101 for that matter. Marginal cost, average cost and holding value do not equal market value. Then there are the more specific terms like DORC, DAC, VAR, DCF etc etc etc.

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dont try to overcomplicate your simple statement of "its worth what somone is willing to pay for it" which basically applies to every transaction in every market. The other stuff is peripheral and utilised by some, not all, when making the decision around whether it is worth entering in to the transaction.
 
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Oddjob

Merry fucking Xmas to you assholes
Yes, but isn't that just holding crypto? Once you have it the trades are anonymous in decentralised systems and no one can see what you're using it for. I understand that where resources are available, investigations can be done, but it's not like Visa/Mastercard where all transactions are recorded to the minute detail.
@Squidfayce has already covered this one.

If you really want anonymity, shell companies, casinos in the Philippines and small private banks in places like Panama and Malta are what you are after.

There used to be other methods like bank promissory notes and 10,000 franc Swiss notes but most of them are falling by the wayside.

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