COVID-19: who’s going full doomsday prep on this?

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
So when will it be eliminated ?

I haven't had the flu since I came to Australia 20yrs ago.

You are getting it at some stage, stats say 10 million in the UK have officially tested positive. My brother reckons probably more than half the UK have had it and put it down to a cold.
your guess is as good as mine as to when it will be eliminated, if at all. But considering even much more infectious diseases have been avoidable throughout history, covid is most definitely avoidable. Your flu exposure supports that somewhat too. 20 years without flu is pretty impressive given it's general reach.

Your brother may be right, but he is more likely to be wrong given the anecdotal nature of the observation.

Current population of the UK is like 68M.
9M (and change) total cases of covid recorded is about 13% of the total population, Those cases also don't differentiate between people who've had it multiple times. Thats the objective data. The statistical likelihood that "probably more than half" of the population having had it is next to zero. Multiple visible flow on effects would have been much more severe.
 

ozzybmx

taking a shit with my boobs out
The statistical likelihood that "probably more than half" of the population having had it is next to zero. Multiple visible flow on effects would have been much more severe.
Nobody knows the real numbers.

I can tell you that the financial hit of a household family member getting it and the whole house ordered to quarantine is stopping people with mild symptoms even reporting it.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Nobody knows the real numbers.
On a per country basis, for those actively reporting and tracking, yeah we sort of do know the real numbers*. There will always be outliers, but the beauty of having such rich data is that the confidence intervals on this data are at the 95-98% mark, which any statistician will tell you is as good as 100%.

There will be people who don't report it and spread it in the scenario you describe, but by far and large, those aren't the majority of people in most developed countries tracking this data. They will be in the outlier population. The other thing to consider is that that type of behavior is not passed on with the infection. SO those infected by such people are more likely to test and report than not.


*Not counting countries like India and China, where the numbers are routinely misreported, or in some African nations where covid "doesn't exist".
 
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ozzybmx

taking a shit with my boobs out
On a per country basis, for those actively reporting and tracking, yeah we sort of do know the real numbers*. There will always be outliers, but the beauty of having such rich data is that the confidence intervals on this data are at the 95-98% mark, which any statistician will tell you is as good as 100%.

There will be people who don't report it and spread it in the scenario you describe, but by far and large, those aren't the majority of people in most developed countries tracking this data. They will be in the outlier population. The other thing to consider is that that type of behavior is not passed on with the infection. SO those infected by such people are more likely to test and report than not.


*Not counting countries like India and China, where the numbers are routinely misreported, or in some African nations where covid "doesn't exist".
Really ! I am not working on shit I have read on the internet. So what is the real numbers in the UK if you know ?

My whole family live there and talking to them and friends, the ordered quarantine of positive people is as bad or worse than lockdown was as it affects everyone, even the people who were not affected by lockdown. 2-6 weeks with no work means no pay for a lot of people, lost contracts or usage of all sick leave and annual leave.

Not a responsible thing to do, even negligent but its happening all over the UK/Ireland.

Its probably been happening here too.
 

pink poodle

気が狂っている男
Really ! I am not working on shit I have read on the internet. So what is the real numbers in the UK if you know ?

My whole family live there and talking to them and friends, the ordered quarantine of positive people is as bad or worse than lockdown was as it affects everyone, even the people who were not affected by lockdown. 2-6 weeks with no work means no pay for a lot of people, lost contracts or usage of all sick leave and annual leave.

Not a responsible thing to do, even negligent but its happening all over the UK/Ireland.

Its probably been happening here too.

Careful now...this is dangerous territory and verging on a total "fuck you!!!" to Australian culture. The tradition of chucking a sickie is as central to our way of life as a Bunnings sausage sizzle.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Really ! I am not working on shit I have read on the internet. So what is the real numbers in the UK if you know ?

My whole family live there and talking to them and friends, the ordered quarantine of positive people is as bad or worse than lockdown was as it affects everyone, even the people who were not affected by lockdown. 2-6 weeks with no work means no pay for a lot of people, lost contracts or usage of all sick leave and annual leave.

Not a responsible thing to do, even negligent but its happening all over the UK/Ireland.

Its probably been happening here too.
The real numbers are those that are reported by the UK govt. I thought that was clear.

(tongue in cheek) But perhaps you're saying because that number is reported by the UK govt on the internet, it's wrong or at the very least less accurate than the anecdotal data reported by your family, friends and their acquaintances?

I understand what you're saying, but its anecdotal data tinged with confirmation bias, especially when the population of data that the figures I'm talking about are over 320 MILLION tests (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing) . Surely you can make the connection that thats more accurate than all the people you know in the UK multiplied by even by a factor of 100.

There nothing wrong with talking about it in anecdotal terms, I'm just telling you "more than half" is wrong, and those going to work when sick and not reporting it will be in outlier data. When were talking about statistical numbers of entire populations, outlier data could still be in the tens of thousands. Even if 100% of the people you know in the UK fell in that bucket of not reporting and going to work, that doesnt translate to the population behavior or data.

Don't know why you're getting upset.
 
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ozzybmx

taking a shit with my boobs out
Careful now...this is dangerous territory and verging on a total "fuck you!!!" to Australian culture. The tradition of chucking a sickie is as central to our way of life as a Bunnings sausage sizzle.
If you use them all on ordered quarantine, its long year without your short notice days off :D
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
If you use them all on ordered quarantine, its long year without your short notice days off :D
yeah private has it relatively tough. Some Govt employees (like my wife) get covid leave for necessary tests and any resulting isolation that doesnt impact on sick or annual balances.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Careful now...this is dangerous territory and verging on a total "fuck you!!!" to Australian culture. The tradition of chucking a sickie is as central to our way of life as a Bunnings sausage sizzle.
this may be for the fw confessions thread - but i have never had a Bunnings sausage. they smell good but
 

ozzybmx

taking a shit with my boobs out
Don't know why you're getting upset.
Who's upset ?

I find it funny that you spout data you read on the internet, I'm telling you actual facts from people living with it.

I'm just telling you "more than half" is wrong
My brother reckons probably more than half the UK have had it and put it down to a cold.
Words from my brother when describing the mild symptoms on the young and vaxxed.

My 43yr old brother would not even have known he had it if it wasn't for his employer asking him to get tested.
 

Squidfayce

Eats Squid
Who's upset ?

I find it funny that you spout data you read on the internet, I'm telling you actual facts from people living with it.

Words from my brother when describing the mild symptoms on the young and vaxxed.

My 43yr old brother would not even have known he had it if it wasn't for his employer asking him to get tested.
I'm "spouting" facts, based on objective data published by the UK government on the internet. Those facts are published by people living with it too. I don't need to know anyone in the UK to be able to form an accurate and objective view of what is happening in the UK. Surely you understand this, right? The internet is full of legitimate data. I'm not pulling this stuff from Facebook groups about crystal healing or out of my arse. Are you really going to go down the path of suggesting that someone cant get trustworthy, accurate information from the internet, ever?

I'm also not discounting your or your family's experiences, I'm just telling you "more than half" is wrong. It doesn't matter if it came from your brother or the Pope. You cant overlay anecdotal data from family and friends across an entire country's population and say it's accurate across the entire population.
 

beeb

Dr. Beebenson, PhD HA, ST, Offset (hons)
Just to try and find some middle ground here, I think you’re both right - sort of…

Don’t know about anyone else, but I don’t know any people who get on Facebook or Insta or RB and post “Well, I didn’t get COVID today…” - so the only post you’re likely to see with people talking about first-hand experience with the virus are from people that have contracted the virus (@Squidfayce’s point). But 100% agree with @ozzybmx that there’d be plenty of people going to work anyway, either because they think they just have the sniffles or because they just can’t afford to stay home. I think we’ll likely be in a better position than the UK currently as (IIRC) we have a higher total vax rate (though not as good in the regional areas), and don’t live with such population density.

In short I think the true figures for infection rates in the UK would lie somewhere between your two points, but it will have relatively little influence on our numbers regardless.
 

indica

Serial flasher
Second shot this morning, so I'm now fully Modernised.
Fuck, I'm almost due for my booster,

Think we had covid really early on in my house too, was on a plane full of, umm, tourists on Jan 31st 2020 and just after that.
Weird cold like thinng with daughter not very well at all from it.
 

leitch

Feelin' a bit rrranty
Maybe not 1/2, but anecdotally, mates in the UK seem to pretty much all had it or believe they had it at some stage.
Yeah.. I’m in this boat too actually. Was in London in March last year, went down hard for a couple of days with a fever, lingering cold symptoms for a couple of weeks after. Tests were nigh on impossible to get there at the time with Bojo in full “shrugs” mode re: COVID. I’m not so sure, but partner is convinced I had it.
 

ozzybmx

taking a shit with my boobs out
Yeah.. I’m in this boat too actually. Was in London in March last year, went down hard for a couple of days with a fever, lingering cold symptoms for a couple of weeks after. Tests were nigh on impossible to get there at the time with Bojo in full “shrugs” mode re: COVID. I’m not so sure, but partner is convinced I had it.
Couldn't have had it. If you were not a stat on the interwebs, it didn't happen ;)
 
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